Gale Warning 446, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 1, 2018, 3:14 PM AKDT (23:14 UTC)

Expired

Aug 2, 2018, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

314 
FZAK52 PAFC 012314
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021145-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 mb low 170 nm south of Saint Matthew Island moves inland near
Bristol Bay Thu morning and strengthens to 996 mb Thu night before 
weakening Fri. A front associated with a Kamchatka low moves into the
western Bering Sea Thu and moves to the Pribilof Islands Fri.

$$

PKZ150-021145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021145-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021145-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021145-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021145-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Areas of fog.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 1, 4:19 AM AKDT, 10 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 AM AKDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked upper level low is centered over Saint
Matthew Island and extends across most of the Bering Sea,
Aleutians, and western Alaska. A front can be seen on satellite
imagery extending out from the low across southwest Alaska, the
Kenai Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Alaska while moving
northeast. Radar shows a line of rain moving north out of
southwest Alaska with scattered showers and gusty southerly winds
developing across the southwest mainland as colder air filters in behind
the front. Precipitation is beginning to show up over the
northern Cook Inlet and southern Susitna Valley as the front
swings through from the south. An upper level ridge which extends
from the Gulf of Alaska north to cover the eastern half of the
state is slowly pushing east allowing the upper low to move in
behind it. A persistent marine layer is still prevalent under the
ridge over the Gulf and low stratus and fog have moved ashore over
parts of the northern Gulf Coast tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable agreement through the end of the week as
the large upper low moves into the Gulf. Some disagreement shows
up as we head into the weekend regarding the location of the low
in the Gulf as well as the next disturbance moving into the
western Aleutians/Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A weak front is moving north up Cook Inlet this morning
pulling in some low stratus and rain. This will drop ceilings/vis
down to MVFR and even temporarily to IFR levels for a few hours
before going back to VFR after the frontal passage. Winds should
remain less than 10 kts out of the south/southwest today before
switching to southeasterly in the evening ahead of the next system
coming in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak weather system over the Susitna valley this morning will
exit to the north by afternoon. Broad southwest flow aloft will
continue over Southcentral through tonight, with the main upper
low centered over the northern Bering. This will result in
considerable cloud cover (except in the Copper River basin) and
possibly a few showers. A stronger system will push into the area
on Thursday and Thursday night. Rain will move into Kodiak Island
in the morning and then push northeast into the rest of
Southcentral during the afternoon and evening hours. The main
upper low will rapidly dive southeast Thursday night and will be
centered near Kodiak Island early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The vertically stacked low over the northeastern Bering will
continue to shift northward today, lifting the trough currently
over the southwest mainland into the interior. As a result, wet
onshore flow conditions will continue through the period. A more
potent shortwave will track across the Bering today and push into
the southwest mainland by this evening. This enhancing feature
will produce widespread rain across much of the Southwest and
AKPEN through Thursday evening before diving into the western
Gulf as high pressure builds in Thursday night. The next front
advances toward the southwest coast by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A vertically stacked low over the northeastern Bering will
continue to push northward through Thursday, then begin it's
journey southward back into the Gulf & north Pacific by Friday. A
wave over the the western Bering Sea this morning will strengthen
into a near gale force low as it moves eastward through Thursday.
A stout ridge will develop across the central Aleutians behind
this system, bringing more stable and warm conditions. This warmer
and more stable airmass is likely to produce widespread stratus
and areas of fog through the end of the week. A second, mature
Kamchatka Low will edge closer to the western Bering on Thursday.
This system will push a warm front across the central Bering and
sweep a cold front across the western Aleutians beginning Thursday
then move east over the ridge for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Sat through Tue)...
The pattern will be dominated by steady westerly flow ferrying
energy from the Bering over the top of a North Pacific ridge into
southern mainland AK. Models have a notoriously hard time with
actual sensible weather in this pattern. There is no overly strong
feature for them to track on to and then carry through the
forecast domain. And as is always the case with the mountainous
terrain, the direction of the flow through the column, but
especially at mountain top, will be key in where precipitation
falls.

Ensembles do reveal fairly high confidence that two synoptic
features will dominate the environment. First, the afore mentioned
flat North Pacific ridge. Second, a vertically stacked low sitting
just north of the Bering Strait. As energy moves between these
features, the exact amount of interaction will be important for
determining which (if any) lows will strengthen and bring more
impactful weather to the area.

For now, the forecast will lend towards the climatology of August.
That is, a cooler, cloudier, and wetter trend than what much of
the state (especially Southcentral) has seen for the latter half
of July. While that may sound like doom and gloom at first glance,
the pattern could actually be one where we alternate between dry
and wet days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MSO

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.