Small Craft Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

891 
FZAK51 PAFC 170031
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171330-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 974 mb low 150 nm southeast of Kodiak this afternoon moves to 
75 nm northwest of Kodiak at 989 mb Wed afternoon. This low will 
then move to 40 nm east of Kodiak at 995 mb Thu morning before 
dissipating Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-171330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171330-
Resurrection Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171330-
Prince William Sound-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171330-
Port Valdez-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171330-
Valdez Narrows-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171330-
Valdez Arm-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171330-
Passage Canal-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171330-
Barren Islands East-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 25 kt
becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 15 kt in
the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171330-
Chiniak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171330-
Marmot Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171330-
Shelikof Strait-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free
waters 1 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171330-
Kachemak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The Active weather continues across the Gulf and southern
mainland, while more benign and showery conditions persist across
the Bering Sea and Aleutians. A weakening baroclinic zone was
evident across the Gulf Coast to over the Matanuska
Valley/Talkeetna mountains. Snow fell along this boundary over the
Matanuska Valley/Talkeetnas while warm air kept precipitation as
rain along the coast. Snow has diminished across much of the
Copper River Basin, except the Talkeetna mountains, however
patchy low clouds have lingered on. A weak barrier jet continued
small craft conditions near the central Gulf coast as well as
Prince William Sound. Further west, the broad upper level trough
with embedded short waves in concert with low level cold advection
has keep conditions on the unstable side across much of the
Bering Sea and Aleutians. This was evidenced by a large area of
showers (mostly snow) across the aforementioned areas. Some
isolated mixed shower activity was observed over the southwest
Mainland.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (through Wednesday afternoon)...
Models overall are in good agreement and reasonable with the
handling of synoptic features through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
through tonight. LLWS with mixed rain and snow is expected to
develop Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An easterly upper level jet stream out ahead of deep mature low
over the northeast Pacific will drive a warm front westward
across the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral tonight. This will
bring warm and wet conditions to the Gulf coast, with snow levels
rising to 2000 ft or higher. With northerly low level flow out
ahead of the warm front, the front edge of precipitation will have
no problems spreading over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains.
Surface temperatures will be just below freezing, so it looks
really good for freezing rain from the western Kenai Peninsula up
to Anchorage. Thus, have issued Winter Weather Advisories for
light ice accumulation. Strong easterly downslope flow will kick
in behind the front by midday Tuesday, so precipitation will cut
off and temperatures will warm above freezing.

The Matanuska Valley and southern Susitna Valley will be right on
the northern periphery of precipitation. Do expect some gusty
northeast winds to develop overnight in the Matanuska Valley which
will cause temps to rise above freezing. Will need to keep an eye
on northern extent of precip because there could be areas of
freezing rain where temps remain below freezing. Another area to
watch will be the Copper River Basin where forecast soundings also
favor freezing rain tonight. Right now it looks like the bulk of
precip should remain near the Chugach Mountains.

The Pacific low will make its way to Kodiak Island Tuesday night,
with lots of wind and rain across the Gulf. As the low reaches the
western Gulf, easterly winds will spread through Prince William
Sound, Passage Canal, and Turnagain Arm. At this point, it looks
like winds will remain below warning levels (75 mph or more), but
Portage Valley/Turnagain Arm could come close Tuesday night
through Wednesday. As the low continues westward along the Alaska
Peninsula on Wednesday winds will push into parts of Anchorage and
the Matanuska, with temps likely peaking in the mid 40s. This
storm system will begin to fall apart Wednesday night, with precip
and winds tapering off most places and temps beginning to fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Some lingering showers along the southern Mainland will taper off
this evening, leaving some residual low level moisture in its
wake which will aide in patchy fog development over some areas
tonight into Tuesday morning. The next front approaches the
southwest Mainland from the Gulf Tuesday morning. The front will
break apart as it pushes through the rest of southwest Alaska but
still spread showers over the area. Showery conditions will
persist through Wednesday and slowly diminish through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
West to northwest flow will continue to dominate the Bering and
Aleutians bringing showers to the area, until a new system
approaches the Western Aleutians from the North Pacific Tuesday.
The associated front will make it over the Western Aleutians
Tuesday afternoon and then track into the Central Aleutians
Wednesday morning. The front will then stall and dissipate
Wednesday night, as the parent low weakens over the western
Aleutians. Not much warming is expected with this upcoming
system, so it is more likely to be a mix of rain and snow with
the frontal passage, rather than just rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
No major changes to the long range forecast today as the trend for
quieter and colder weather still looks to be on track. Beginning
Thursday, weak ridging will develop over the eastern half of the
state bookended by a deep low over the SE coast and a rapidly
weakening surface low over the SW mainland. The jet stream will
migrate south keeping the storm track positioned away from
mainland Alaska. An upper level ridge will amplify over the
Bering and move east through the weekend which will lead to
northerly offshore flow over the western half of the state. This
will draw bitterly cold air down from the arctic and steadily
decrease temperatures across most of the area, with the coldest
plunge of arctic air seen over western AK where temperatures could
drop well below average by Sunday.

Further west, models are locking in on the next storm system
moving into the Western Bering on Saturday. A front looks to move
east across the western and central Aleutians over the weekend but
will stall and wash out as persistent high pressure to the east east
blocks any further progression. Past this weekend, models become
disorganized and out of agreement, but generally show the storm
track staying to our south as ridging holds on over the mainland
keeping us in a colder/drier pattern.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Freezing Rain Advisory 101 121.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
 Gale Warning 120 125 130>132 138>140 150 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PEPE
LONG TERM...KVP