Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

085 
FZAK61 PAFC 161230
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170145-
330 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 970 mb North Pacific low moves to 58N 153W at 983 mb Wed morning 
then moves to 57N 150W at 995 mb early Thu morning. 

$$

PKZ351-170145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
330 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
330 AM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

473 
FZAK61 PAFC 170013
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171400-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 974 mb low at 57N 149W this afternoon moves to 58N 153W at 989
mb Wed afternoon. This low will then move to 58N 150W at 995 mb 
Thu morning before dissipating Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-171400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S to W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

701 
FZAK61 PAFC 171234
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180215-
334 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 979 mb low at 57N 154W will remain nearly stationary and weaken to
995 mb Wed night before dissipating Thu. A 1000 mb low will develop 
near 59N 146W Thu night.

$$

PKZ351-180215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 5
to 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 AM AKST Wed Jan 17 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Active weather continues across the Gulf and southern mainland,
while more benign and showery conditions persist across the Bering
Sea and Aleutians. The disturbance moving northward along the
stationary boundary in the Gulf is moving toward the north Gulf
Coast, and as expected, this has pulled the precipitation shield
in the area westward. As of this writing, the precipitation is
likely within a few hours of reaching its westward-most extent
and at this point, it looks increasingly likely that most of the
Anchorage area will see a little more than a few flurries to
perhaps a dusting of snowfall. Meanwhile, heavier snow has
continued overnight in the Copper River Basin with multiple
reports of power outages in the area.

Out west, the previous low that affected the southern mainland
continues to fill and move northward along the coast, and is
currently located near St. Lawrence Island. Fairly weak onshore
flow continues to spread warm temperatures and showery conditions
to the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay zones, but these conditions
should gradually diminish throughout the day. Meanwhile, cold air
gradually moving offshore of Siberia continues to support abundant
snow shower activity over the western 2/3 of the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement today with the main features
affecting the forecast, and forecast confidence is above-average.
There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding snowfall potential
this morning in the Anchorage and Matanuska Valley areas, though
all models have trended toward a drier/less snowy solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
throughout the day. Clouds and a bit of mixed precipitation move
into the area Tuesday morning, and have the potential to briefly
lower ceilings to near MVFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The atmospheric river that has been over the eastern Prince
William Sound region edged westward overnight and appears to be
reaching the westward extent of its movement. This has kept heavy
snowfall through the night in the Copper River Basin and rain
along the coast over most of Prince William Sound. Anchorage
remains on the western edge of the snowfall with snow likely over
the Chugach mountains but little to none expected in the Anchorage
bowl. Likewise, in the Matanuska Valley, Palmer will likely see
some light snowfall but less in Wasilla.

Tuesday will see the next low track rapidly into the Gulf of
Alaska from the southeast and track to Kodiak Island by early
Wednesday. The front ahead of this low will move through
Southcentral Alaska Tuesday ushering in some very warm
temperatures aloft. this will bring in a quick shot of freezing
rain to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley late Monday night
before the downslope winds kick in and temperatures warm above
freezing Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The low that has been bringing precipitation to Southwest Alaska
continues its track north along the west coast. As it does, the
majority of precipitation will clear out of the area until a
front approaches the Bristol Bay area from the Gulf Tuesday. The
front will break apart as it pushes through the rest of southwest
Alaska but still spread showers over the area. Showers will then
diminish through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
West to northwest flow will continue to dominate the Bering and
Aleutians bringing showers to the area until a new system
approaches the Western Aleutians from the North Pacific Tuesday.
The associated front will make it over the Western Aleutians
Tuesday afternoon and then to the Central Aleutians Wednesday
morning. The front will then stall and diminish Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast beginning Wednesday, features a broad
upper level trough extending across the western two thirds of the
state. A highly amplified long wave ridge centered over the
western US will extend up through central Canada and into the
Yukon. As the upper level trough digs east encompassing the whole
state, the upper level ridge will be pinched off over Canada and
The jet stream will return to more of an west/east zonal pattern,
with the main jet core setting up well to the south of the state
nearing 35N. What this means for the sensible weather this week is
a transition from warm and moist southerly flow, to more of a
colder and drier pattern over the mainland as the storm track is
directed well to our south.

At the surface, a low over the Northern Gulf will move north into
Bristol Bay and weaken during the day on Wednesday, though not
before bringing accumulating snow to the SW mainland. As this
system fizzles out the pattern becomes much quieter over the
mainland as cold air is allowed to filter south from the Arctic.
This will bring temperatures back to normal for this time of year,
likely dropping below normal by the end of the week especially
out west. By Thursday, the models fall out of agreement and
solutions become unclear regarding specific features that may
track into the area. Though at this point, models are all
generally showing the storm track still staying to our south.
Models come back into agreement by the weekend as the next low
tracks across the North Pacific and into the Western Bering,
which could potentially be the next weather system to impact the
mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 132 138 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1234 PM AKST MON JAN 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
01/15/2018  M5.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RCLAY