Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

639 
FZAK51 PAFC 021532 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030430-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the western Gulf moves to the north and weakens inland.
A weak 999 mb low develops 30 nm south of Cordova tonight and 
quickly moves inland Wed morning. A ridge builds in the central 
Gulf Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-030430-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
26  ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030430-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
30 ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030430-
Resurrection Bay-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Higher seas S of Caines 
Head. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher Seas S of Caines Head.
 and rain showers. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of
Caines Head. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030430-
Prince William Sound-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030430-
Port Valdez-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers, mixed
with snow in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030430-
Valdez Narrows-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...Winds becoming SW 25 kt this morning then diminishing to
10 kt late in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030430-
Valdez Arm-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030430-
Passage Canal-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5  ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030430-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas
16   subsiding to 12 ft.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to
8  ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030430-
Barren Islands East-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
31 ft subsiding to 21 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030430-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030430-
Chiniak Bay-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030430-
Marmot Bay-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030430-
Shelikof Strait-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030430-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030430-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters subsiding to
3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030430-
Kachemak Bay-
632 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 in in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

031 
FZAK51 PAFC 030013
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031330-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 mb low 200 NM southeast of Kodiak City will move to Montague
Island at 1000 mb late tonight and then weaken inland on Wed. A 
ridge will build into the central Gulf Wed night. 

$$

PKZ119-031330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Near
the coast, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031330-
Resurrection Bay-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable. Seas 2 ft.
Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031330-
Prince William Sound-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt through early evening. Seas 
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft during the evening. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031330-
Port Valdez-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031330-
Valdez Narrows-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031330-
Valdez Arm-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031330-
Passage Canal-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031330-
Barren Islands East-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031330-
Chiniak Bay-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031330-
Marmot Bay-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031330-
Shelikof Strait-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031330-
Kachemak Bay-
313 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large mature low south of the Alaska Peninsula bottomed out
sometime early this morning around 961 mb and now is beginning
to slowly weaken as it lifts northward toward Bristol Bay. The
occluded and warm fronts are lifting northward out ahead of the
low with precip spreading inland across Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. Strengthening easterly low level flow is leading to
downslope drying on the west side of mountain ranges, though
overrunning just out ahead of the strongest winds could produce a
brief period of very light precip. Much warmer air is also moving
in, leading to a transition to all rain along the coast. A nose
of warm air aloft is also spreading inland. Some of the strongest
winds with this system are behind the cold front and southeast of
the low center, coincident with cold advection and significant
pressure rises. These southerly storm force winds will begin to
make their way into the Gulf late this afternoon.

Out west, an upper level trough over the Bering Sea with broad
instability is producing snow showers, particularly over the
western to central Aleutian islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All models show the same general synoptic idea, though there are
a bunch of differences with smaller scale features. In particular,
there are some differences in location and amplitude of upper
level waves traversing the southern Alaska mainland Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Thus, confidence in the precipitation
forecast behind the big low drops significantly. This bears
watching, as one of these waves has the potential to produce
localized snow accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Expect VFR conditions to dominate as east to southeast
downslope flow strengthens this evening through the overnight
hours. Surface winds will remain northerly, so there will be
periods of low level wind shear. As the low center makes its
way northward across Southwest Alaska early Tuesday, expect the
Turnagain Arm jet to bend into Anchorage, so southeast winds
will come up rapidly and remain gusty through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system currently over the northern Gulf will continue
north and inland spreading strong east to southeasterly flow
across southcentral Alaska tonight. With a moderately cold air
mass in place, precipitation inland will start as light snow,
however expect to see temperatures warming steadily as the
southeasterly winds strengthen. In areas such as the Anchorage
metro area, Eagle River and the Mat-Su valleys where downslope
warming will be strongest, expect the temperatures to climb into
the upper 30s late tonight and low to mid 40s tomorrow morning as
winds strengthen. The Copper River Basin is another location which
will likely see both strong southeast winds and a rapid warm up
as winds push into that area tomorrow morning. Along the coast
expect rain to continue to be heavy at times tonight through
Tuesday morning with significant new heavy wet snow in the
mountains above 1500 to 2000 ft.

In marine areas, widespread easterly gales ahead of the front
turning southeasterlies and the potential for a storm force
barrier jet over the north Gulf coast are the main initial
concerns. As a second wrap of the front moves into the southwest
Gulf tonight, southerly winds will increase to gales to storm
force winds in that area as well. In addition, the long southerly
fetch associated with this system will bring a rapid increase in
seas to the Gulf peaking between 30 and 35 ft.

Southeasterly flow will gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon and
evening and then rapidly drop off overnight. A weak frontal wave
will move north across the Gulf to the north or northeastern Gulf
Coast continuing precipitation over that area through Wednesday.
Elsewhere in southcentral, cold advection will slowly filter in
from the west, supporting isolated to scattered showers Tuesday
night and Wednesday transition from a mix of rain and snow showers
to predominately snow showers from west to east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...
A surface low just south of the Alaska Peninsula moves to Bristol
Bay tonight pushing a broad front through the Kuskokwim
overnight. A mix of snow and rain will develop along the boundary
as it moves across Bristol Bay, with all snow expected as it moves
north across the Kuskokwim due to a colder air mass in place.
Precipitation tapers down late tonight, however it continues
through Tuesday night as the surface low weakens on a slow
northward track. A ridge pattern moves across the southwest for
Wednesday into Thursday creating drier conditions for mid week in
southerly flow. A cooler temperature trend is expected despite
south flow as cold air advects in from the Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

Low pressure over the central Bering shifts south tonight and
slowly shears apart through Tuesday between the low pressure
lifting north across the Southwest and a ridge building into the
southwest Bering. This will give a brief break from gusty winds
through Wednesday morning, then the next North Pacific front moves
to the western and Central Aleutians. This storm system slowly
deepens on its northerly track to the western Bering. The
associated surface low strengthens from 970 mb to 960 mb as it
crosses the western Chain Wednesday afternoon. A triple point low
develops quickly during this time as another strong wave races
around the base of the storm system. Max gale force marine winds
are expected along the initial frontal boundary as it pushes
across, with precipitation quickly changing over to all rain along
this warm subtropical storm. The first frontal boundary pushes
across to the north and eastern Bering by Thursday afternoon. The
triple point low moves a re-enforcing gale force boundary to the
central and eastern Aleutians mid day Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast beginning Wednesday afternoon remains
progressive, as low pressure over the southern Mainland gives way
to an amplifying ridge building in from the west on Thursday. In
the meantime, a strong upper low will develop over much of the
Bering sea Thursday into Friday, then begin to push the above
mentioned ridge over the pan-handle and western Canada by the
start of the weekend. As the ridge builds into the southern
Mainland Wednesday into Thursday, cooler and drier conditions will
build back over the area under light offshore/northerly flow.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the finer details of the
complex north Pacific low and associated front tracking through
the Aleutians and into the Bering Wednesday into Thursday. This
is also true for the potent triple point low strengthening over
the north Pacific Thursday, then tracking through the Central and
Eastern Aleutians/Bering Friday. The associated front will reach
Southwest Alaska Friday morning and push eastward over much of the
southern Mainland by Saturday. Overall, this system will usher in
another round of wet and windy conditions for the much of the
area, as well as some warming temperatures ahead of the front as
the system progresses eastward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 120 125 129 136-140 150-160.
		 Storm 119 130-132.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1201 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

AKZ101-111-021515-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
1201 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...Areas of Freezing Rain through early Tuesday morning from
Anchorage through the Matanuska Valley...

Some areas of light freezing rain have developed around the
Anchorage area and is more persistent along the Glenn Highway
from northeast Anchorage through Eagle River up to Palmer and
Wasilla. This freezing rain is not expected to last very long,
but will keep roads slick through the Tuesday morning commute with
temperatures in places hovering around freezing. As temperatures
rise to above freezing Tuesday, the road conditions should
improve.