Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

788 
FZAK52 PAFC 020041 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021330-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 963 mb low 80 nm southeast of Sand Point will move near Bethel 
at 986 mb Tue afternoon and continue to weaken as it moves 
northward. A 977 mb low 200 nm west of St Paul will remain nearly 
stationary and dissipate Tue evening. A front will move over the 
western Aleutians Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-021330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt by midnight. Seas building
to 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming W by midnight. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021330-
Bristol Bay-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 30 kt mid morning. Seas 
5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021330-
Unalaska Bay-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021330-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021330-
Adak to Kiska-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021330-
Kiska to Attu-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-021330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 PM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

835 
FZAK52 PAFC 021250
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030130-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low over Bristol Bay weakens and moves inland this 
afternoon. A 983 mb low 260 nm north of Adak remains nearly 
stationary and dissipates this afternoon. A front moves over the 
western Aleutians tonight and a 965 mb low develops 90 nm north of 
Adak Wed night.

$$

PKZ150-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft this morning subsiding to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030130-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt early becoming SW wind 25 kt. Seas 
building to 6 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030130-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030130-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030130-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030130-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning N of
Cape Newenham.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

318 
FZAK52 PAFC 030040
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031400-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 mb low 350 NM west of St Paul will move westward and dissipate
late tonight. A front in the North Pacific will move to the central 
Bering Sea Wed night. A 967 mb low 450 NM south of Shemya Wed 
afternoon will move near Amchitka at 961 mb Thu afternoon. A rapidly
developing North Pacific low will move 200 nm southeast of Adak Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-031400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-031400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-031400-
Bristol Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-031400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-031400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-031400-
Unalaska Bay-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-031400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-031400-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-031400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-031400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-031400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-031400-
Adak to Kiska-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-031400-
Kiska to Attu-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-031400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-031400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-031400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-031400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
340 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

840 
FZAK52 PAFC 031245
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040145-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front approaches the western Aleutians and reaches the central 
Aleutians tonight. An associated 965 mb low 270 nm south of Shemya 
tonight moves 240 nm southeast of Shemya at 962 mb Thu evening. A 
second 964 mb low develops 260 nm southeast of Adak Thu morning and 
absorbs the first low, and then moves 200 nm north of Adak Thu night 
at 951 mb.

$$

PKZ150-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 9 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040145-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040145-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt early becoming 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 
18 ft in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Snow 
in the morning, then rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040145-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in
the afternoon. Freezing spray and areas of blowing snow in the 
morning. Snow in the morning, then rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040145-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKST Mon Jan 1 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Happy New Year! We wish all our readers and their families a
happy, healthy, and prosperous 2018!

Weatherwise, a couple upper level lows continue to work to
amplify the upper level pattern this morning. A broad, diffuse low
is over the western Bering, while a smaller, but more energetic
low is south of the eastern Aleutians, but quickly moving north
towards that area. So, despite the upper level southerly flow,
moving an upper level low towards southern Alaska is effectively
recycling cold air into the area, rather than bringing in lots of
warm air, which is more indicative of a ridge. This pattern favors
a continuation of wet conditions for sure, with the repeated
intrusions of cooler air from the west favoring development of
surface low pressure. Additionally, pieces of energy splitting off
from the subtropical jet will help with cyclone development by
aiding in producing upper level divergence with the passage of
each wave.

Radar continues to show extensive, but waning precipitation
intensities and coverage across the northern Gulf and Prince
William Sound this morning as weak upper level ridging diminishes
the instability promoting the precipitation. Temperatures across
the Sound this morning remain in the mid 30s, promoting mostly
rain at the coast. However, one need not travel very far inland at
all for that rain to change over to snow, as even Whittier has
tenaciously held on to snow with temps a degree or two above
freezing. Easterly flow continues to keep upslope flow and steady
snow ongoing across the Chugach. Further west, downsloping is
keeping things dry from the Matanuska Valley through Anchorage and
the western Kenai Peninsula. Upsloping on the east side of the
Alaska Range is occasionally allowing snow to intrude as far east
as Kenai and the immediate coastline of the western Kenai
Peninsula, but the true upsloping and highest precipitation rates
on radar are further west over Cook Inlet and the western Susitna
Valley.

Conditions are quiet and breezy through southwest Alaska as drier
air briefly moves in. For most areas temperatures are right near
the freezing mark. Finally, over the Bering, the aforementioned
upper low continues to shift around the stratus over the eastern
Bering, while cold air on the west side of the low keeps snow
showers ongoing over the far western Bering. The other, stronger
low is rapidly advancing northward towards the eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula and will be mainland southern Alaska's next
real weather-maker later today into tonight.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in good agreement through about 48 hours, Tuesday
afternoon. The next deepening low tracking towards the eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula dominates the forecast through the
next 48 hours, and it is forecast to be plenty strong enough that
all the models have a good handle on its strongest pressure and
track. Behind it however, the models fall into much more
disagreement as the next waves of energy tracking northward out of
the Pacific are forecast to be much weaker, and thus its less
certain on their eventual track. Rain-snow line location and
elevation remains the most prominent forecast challenge, along
with the degree of intensity of the lee-side downsloping. Forecast
confidence is a bit above the normal given this is a common
pattern, but there is far less confidence in the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. East to
southeast winds will develop at 2,000 feet this evening causing
wind shear as a front moves over the area. Those winds will
gradually mix down to the surface overnight as the Turnagain Arm
Jet moves over south and west Anchorage early Tuesday morning,
persisting through the rest of the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Scattered snow showers across Southcentral will lift rapidly north
with the upper trough this morning. The focus then shifts to a
developing low pressure center heading north to the Alaska
Peninsula and leading front sweeping north toward the Gulf. The
front makes landfall over the northern Gulf Coast late tonight
then moves inland and weakens Tuesday while the associated low
moves over the Southwest Mainland. This will lead to another round
of warming, strong winds, and precipitation over the areas
surrounding the Gulf coast and western portions of Cook Inlet. The
front will bring warmer air than the last system, and allow for
mixed precipitation types to intrude further inland. However, like
the previous system, strong cross-barrier flow will limit
precipitation chances over the western side of the Chugach
mountains. Colder air will move in from the west Tuesday night
with the upper trough and possibly bring a parting shot of snow
the the Anchorage Bowl and Mat Valley.

In addition, gales to storm force winds across marine areas along with
strengthening gap flows across land areas will accompany the
front as it heads north today. Strong pressure rises to the rear
of the front will bring strong/brisk southerly winds across the
Copper River Basin, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat Valley early Tuesday
morning.

Of special note for the marine community is the dynamic fetch
accompanying with the trailing low heading toward the Alaska
Peninsula. Storm force winds developing to the east of this
center will spread over the southern and western Gulf this
afternoon/tonight. This combined with a fairly long southerly
fetch will allow waves to build to 30-35 ft over the southern and
western Gulf this evening/tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...

Today will see the approach of the next strong system from the
North Pacific. Things will start out relatively quiet and dry this
morning. Temperatures continue to be quite warm across the area
with many locations above freezing thanks to the previous system
ushering in some warmer air. There is an outside chance for some
fog to form in the YK Delta this morning, but it will be working
against offshore flow. If any forms, it should be brief. Then the
incoming system will start to ratchet up the east to northeast
flow as the day progresses. The strongest winds will once again be
found in the gaps of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. Rain will
start along the Alaska Peninsula this morning and then pivot
through Bristol Bay this afternoon. Places in the lee of the
mountain ranges (Iliamna, King Salmon, etc) should see enough
down-sloping to keep them mostly dry. It should be cold enough
inland late this afternoon and into the evening that precipitation
would start as snow. We have some light accumulations in the
forecast, however with surface temperatures hovering at or above
freezing, this will severely limit things. The lone exception will
be over the higher terrain of the Kuskokwim Mountains where a few
inches could pile up. With offshore winds, there could also be a
brief period of blowing snow, but it will not be widespread.

Into Tue, this system will weaken as it lifts through the area.
It will bring warmer air to almost the entire SW, so the remaining
showers should turn to rain or at least a rain/snow mix. The
exception could be if cold air can hang on along the YK-Delta
coastline, things could stay all snow there. Then as the system
moves far enough north, it will actually wrap some colder air back
in from the west. This will cause precipitation to turn back over
to snow late Tue. Bottom line, expect a messy start to the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...

One low center NW of the Pribilof Islands and another from the
North Pacific will dictate the pattern to start the week. The
first will keep cold air moving from Siberia down towards the
Central and Western Aleutians. This will make for widespread snow
showers and gale-force winds. For the Eastern Bering, the system
from the N Pacific will bring another round of moderate rain and
warm air. Expect gale-force easterly winds near the west coast
today. The winds will shift to more of a north and westerly
direction on Tue allowing some colder air and snow showers to
impact the area. A new gale-force front will move through the
Central and Western Aleutians from the south in the middle of the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The front associated with a 980 mb low crossing the Kuskokwim
Delta and moving northward along the western coast will weaken
over the northern Gulf coast and inland areas Tuesday, with a
reinforcing wave quickly tracking northward across the Gulf
Tuesday night and into the northern Gulf coast overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday morning. Depending on what part of the Northern
Gulf the wave tracks over, given there is lower confidence in
this system due to lack of model agreement, this wave will likely
reinforce precipitation over the Gulf coast. There is also some
potential to bring precipitation as far west as the the Cook Inlet
region and interior parts of southcentral Alaska. Colder air aloft
will begin to filter back in from the interior on Wednesday,
bringing cooler and drier conditions back to the Southcentral
region.

Ridging will begin building over mainland Alaska Thursday and
Friday in response to a deep north Pacific low crossing the
central Aleutians and tracking into the Bering. Uncertainty
remains high regarding this system but current model runs are
forecasting the minimum depth of the surface low to be around 940
mb. The associated front will reach Southwest Alaska Friday night
or Saturday then stall as it hits the large upper level ridge.
Cold westerly flow and snow showers will prevail over the Bering
in the broad upper level trough that forms once the low lifts
north, while in southcentral Alaska under the large ridge, fog and
low stratus will be the main forecast challenge for the end of
the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm: 119 130 131 132.
Gale: 120 125 129 136 137 138 139 140 150 155 160 165 180 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...TP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 AM AKST MON JAN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     SNOW             6 NNW VALDEZ            61.16N 146.37W
01/01/2018  M5.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            VALDEZ SNOW DEPTH 24.4 IN. 24 HR SNOWFALL TOTAL AS OF 7AM
            ON JAN 1ST - 5.9 IN

&&

RA