Small Craft Advisory 396, NWS Anchorage, AK

909 
FZAK51 PAFC 162330
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171215-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A series of fronts will cross the western Gulf through Fri.

$$

PKZ119-171215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Near the coast...Variable wind less 
than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt toward morning. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171215-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming Variable less than 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171215-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171215-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171215-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171215-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming 
N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171215-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171215-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt, except increasing to 35 kt near 
the Barren Islands. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Near the Barren Island...E wind 35 kt
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171215-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171215-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171215-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171215-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKDT Wed May 16 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

318 
FZAK51 PAFC 171133
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-180030-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure over the Eastern Gulf slips inland for Fri 
afternoon. A 1000 mb North Pacific low moves to 90 nm Southeast of
Chignik at 998 mb Sat morning. Its front spreads across the Gulf 
and North Gulf Coast through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-180030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-180030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-180030-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-180030-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-180030-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-180030-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-180030-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-180030-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-180030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas building
to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-180030-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except 35 kt near the Barren Islands. Seas 8
except 12 ft near the Barren Islands. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-180030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-180030-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-180030-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-180030-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-180030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-180030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-180030-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

561 
FZAK51 PAFC 172232
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-181115-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front will move into the southern Gulf Fri night through Sat,
then dissipate over the northern Gulf Sat morning. Another front 
will approach the southern Gulf on Sat afternoon.


$$

PKZ119-181115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt around midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-181115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-181115-
Resurrection Bay-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind less than 10 kt becoming variable by midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-181115-
Prince William Sound-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-181115-
Port Valdez-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-181115-
Valdez Narrows-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-181115-
Valdez Arm-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-181115-
Passage Canal-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-181115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-181115-
Barren Islands East-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-181115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-181115-
Chiniak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-181115-
Marmot Bay-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-181115-
Shelikof Strait-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-181115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-181115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-181115-
Kachemak Bay-
232 PM AKDT Thu May 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 PM AKDT Tue May 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level low that has brought cold air and mixed
precipitation to southwest Alaska is pulling in southerly flow at
the surface as it moves northward. This southerly flow is bringing
a long fetch of moisture into Kodiak and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. Colder temperatures aloft under the upper level low
are producing an unstable environment over the mainland, as seen
in many of the morning soundings. Accordingly, radar indicates
that precip around the region is falling as showers this morning.
Out west, a quick moving shortwave over the central Bering is
heading south causing a rain/snow mix for the Pribilof Islands and
eastern Aleutians. Ridging over the western Bering is continuing
to build in with warmer air.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term, although there are
differences in timing as shortwaves move around the upper low. A
North Pacific low is approaching the Alaska Peninsula on Friday is
where models begin to differ. The GFS and GEM are in good
agreement for placement with the NAM to the west, while the EC
struggles with the position of the low. Models are also in less
agreement with a low nearing the western Aleutians Friday. The GFS
and NAM are in consensus with the GEM lagging and the EC between
these other models. The GFS has also shown better run to run
consistency with this system leading to it being preferred out
west.

&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Turnagain Arm winds are expected to pick up this afternoon
as a trough approaches from the southwest. Although showers may
move through at times with various shortwaves, predominantly
easterly flow aloft should cause VFR cigs/vis to prevail for most
of today. The possibility of MVFR conditions increases toward the
end of the TAF period as flow aloft becomes more southerly and the
precipitation moves more towards steady rain, but this was left
out of the TAF for now with differences in how much rainfall reaches
the Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Expect a continuation of recent weather as we head through the
next couple days, with fairly cool temperatures, extensive cloud
cover and fairly widespread rain from Kodiak/western Gulf on up
to the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and the Mat-Su. First, for this
evening, a short-wave rounding the upper low over Southwest
Alaska will combine with the weakly unstable environment to keep
isolated to scattered showers going for much of the region through
this evening.

The air mass will then stabilize tonight through Wednesday as a
warm front over the Gulf lifts northward to Southcentral. Rain
will spread across the eastern half of Kodiak island this evening
and on up to the Kenai Peninsula overnight. The rain will then
try and advect northward up Cook Inlet on Wednesday. Low level
flow on Wednesday will be out of the southeast across the Kenai
and western Chugach Mountains, though flow from around 7000 feet
on up will be out of the south to south-southwest. With primarily
low level processes producing the rain it seems the downslope
flow will tend to keep things mostly dry for Anchorage and the
Mat Valley, though a few sprinkles or a brief period of very
light rain is certainly possible.

An mature low pressure system over the North Pacific will then
send a frontal system northward Wednesday night and Thursday,
with a good southerly fetch of moisture. While the low level
southeasterly flow will continue across the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, this system looks more impressive, so expect all the
most populous cities to see a period of rain, though it will
remain on the light side. The heaviest rain will fall across
Kodiak Island and the Gulf coast.

Looking out to Friday, an upper ridge will nudge in from the
east, pushing the frontal system and associated rain westward
toward Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. Expect
decreasing clouds in the Copper Basin, extending westward toward
Anchorage and the Mat-Su by late in the day. With some sunshine
and a warming air mass this likely will be one of the warmer days
so far this spring. In particular, it looks like the Copper River
Basin will see high temperatures in the 60s, with potential for
the typically warmer areas in the heart of the basin to approach
70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The upper level low that has brought cold air and showers to
southwest Alaska continues its track to the north. As it exits,
weak ridging will move over the area ahead of a warm front that
will bring more rain to southwest Alaska Thursday. After the
front passes light rain and weak easterly winds will linger
through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The fast moving shortwave that is pushing through the central
Bering will bring rain and snow showers to the eastern Aleutians
into early tonight before tracking off into the North Pacific.
Northerly flow will continue behind this feature due to ridging
that has built in over the western Bering. The ridging will also
block a front that is tracking toward the western Aleutians from
bringing anything more than a light rain to the islands Wednesday.
The ridging will break down on Friday allowing for a new low to
track into the central Bering from the east.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast begins Friday as a persistent upper level ridge
over Western Canada and the Yukon becomes undercut by an upper
level trough moving from the North Pacific into the Gulf of
Alaska. This will act to tilt the ridge NW into Southcentral
leading to decreasing cloud cover and warming temperatures during
the day. High temps on Friday look to top out in the upper 50's to
low 60's in Anchorage and the Mat-Su while portions of the Copper
River Basin should see temperatures approaching the 70 degree
mark as mostly sunny skies are expected there.

This first taste of summer will be short lived as the trough
continues to under cut the ridge acting to push the ridge axis
further east into Canada allowing an upper level low to build back
over the southeastern Bering and Aleutians. This will bring a
return of cooler, cloudier, and wetter weather to the southern
half of the state this weekend into early next week as several
systems move through the region. Past mid-week, models become
muddled regarding the placement of specific features but most show
a persistent upper level low over the Gulf and Northern Pacific. There
are some hints of this feature weakening and breaking down
allowing more seasonable weather to take over by the end of next
week, just in time for the Memorial Day weekend. Stay tuned for
details!

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KVP