Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

786 
FZAK52 PAFC 141225
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 958 mb low 70 nm northwest of Cold Bay will move to 55 nm south
of Kipnuk at 966 mb this afternoon then it will move to the 
northern Bering Mon morning. A weak front moves over the western 
Aleutians Mon morning then will move over the central Aleutians 
Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing spray near the ice edge in the morning. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 AM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt diminishing to
20 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

978 
FZAK52 PAFC 142359
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151245-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 963 mb low 70 nm southwest of Kipnuk will move into the 
northern Bering by Mon afternoon. A new low west of the Aleutians 
Mon night will move to 360 nm west of Shemya at 987 mb by Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151245-
Bristol Bay-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151245-
Unalaska Bay-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151245-
Adak to Kiska-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151245-
Kiska to Attu-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
259 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

042 
FZAK52 PAFC 151212
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160115-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the western Aleutians will dissipate over the central
Aleutians Tue afternoon. A 973 mb low moves into the southwestern
Gulf Tue night then it will move to 50 nm southeast of Kodiak City 
at 977 mb Wed morning. A 986 mb Kamchatka low will move to 95 nm
southwest of Shemya Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-160115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160115-
Bristol Bay-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160115-
Unalaska Bay-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160115-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160115-
Adak to Kiska-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160115-
Kiska to Attu-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
312 AM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
639 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The trough-ridge pattern set up over southern Alaska and the north
Pacific continues to amplify as the trough digs all the way down
to 35N. Then a ridge over the western half of North America
returns a nearly due south to north flow through the Gulf into
Southcentral. Warm air associated with the ridging continues to
move northward into Southcentral. The vertically stacked low
south of Sand Point is providing the energy, and cold air to
produce strong warm fronts that are causing strong winds, and
periodically heavy precipitation.

Temperatures continue to warm over the area, reaching the upper
30s to lower 40s at coastal communities like Kodiak and Homer.
Meanwhile cooler temperatures and northerly winds keep Anchorage
and points north just below freezing; although, that too will
change with the next front. Across Southwest Alaska, northerly
winds continue so the warm up is not occurring there quite as
fast. Colder air with the deep upper level trough remains over the
Bering, and widespread stratus clouds are periodically producing
rain showers as temperatures largely hold in the 30s.

Gale force winds moved into the north Gulf coast with the latest
front overnight, but another stronger front is quickly pushing
northward across the southern Gulf this morning. The low south of
Sand point is spreading gusty northerly winds and rain showers
across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are finally coming into better agreement on the
evolution of the pair of lows tracking from the north Pacific into
the eastern Bering. A secondary low has recently formed along the
triple point to the east of the occluding one south of Sand
Point. The secondary low will absorb the first one, thus becoming
the primary. It tracks northwestward across the southern Alaska
Peninsula into the eastern Bering by this afternoon and evening.
From there it will track to near Nunivak Island Sunday afternoon,
then into the northern Bering. While there still is some timing
differences between models, they're in much better agreement.
Thus, forecast confidence has significantly improved regarding
that system.

Unfortunately the next system has large differences between the
models which leads to large differences in the forecast depending
on which one is chosen. What is in agreement, is a low developing
even further south and east in the Gulf than all previous ones.
The low is forecast to track north and west across the central
Gulf and into the north Gulf Coast, likely to Prince William
Sound. The models are very different as to when the center of the
low reaches the Sound, with differences as much as 24 hours. Thus,
there is high uncertainty, but enough of the models are
suggesting sometime Sunday night into Monday morning. The track as
it stands right now is favorable for snow to fall in Anchorage
early Monday morning, but a lot of detail still needs to be worked
out. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds will remain out of the
north with some variability especially early this morning. A
front moving up the Inlet late this afternoon and evening will
bring some shower activity to the airport. Warm temperatures
should keep the predominant precipitation type as rain. The
precipitation may mix with or change over to snow if it gets to a
heavy-enough intensity, so brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible with any stronger showers. Once the front passes, the
winds will flip to the southeasterly direction and remain gusty.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
This very active weather pattern for the Gulf continues as one
gale force front is currently dissipating in Prince William Sound
while a much stronger, storm-hurricane force front is quickly on
it's heels. This front will bring another round of strong winds
and seas in excess of 30 ft over much of the Gulf by this
afternoon. It could possibly even bring brief rounds of high
winds (75 mph or higher) to Kodiak Island or Southern Kachemak Bay
as it intensifies to hurricane force along the North Gulf Coast
this afternoon. At this point the risk of high winds looks to be
very brief and as a result, a warning was not issued, but these
areas should still expect a significant ramp up in winds by early
this afternoon. Confidence remains very good that this front will
bring storm force winds as far east as Prince William Sound this
evening, as well as widespread heavy rain and snow to the Eastern
Kenai (including Turnagain Pass) through today. One major
difference regarding this front from the one that pushed through
yesterday, will be much warmer air, bringing snow levels as high
as 1500-2000 above sea level by this afternoon before falling to
around 500 ft overnight. This system is expected to bring
heightened avalanche danger, including to the Turnagain Pass area,
so recreators are encouraged to check their nearest avalanche
advisory center for the latest information. For the lee side of
the Chugach, precipitation will light (if any) as a result of
strong cross barrier flow, and instead will see temperatures
rising well into the 30s with strong gap winds through Turnagain
Arm and out of the Matanuska Valley for much of this weekend.

There will be no rest for the weary even into late this weekend
as the models are beginning to come to a consensus with the track
of an inverted trough from the Eastern-Central Gulf late Sunday-
Monday. As a result confidence is increasing that widespread
accumulating snowfall will develop from Prince William Sound
northward into the Copper River Basin beginning Sunday evening
before spreading westward into Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley
late Sunday- Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A fast moving and strong low will move into Bristol Bay today.
This will bring strong gale force winds with some storm force
gusts near the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges. Enough warm air will
quickly turn any snow to rain across Bristol Bay, but it should
remain snow across the Kuskokwim Delta. Snow will favor the coast,
and with a strong pressure gradient, there may be some brief
reductions as low as a a half mile in snow and blowing snow.
Behind the front, temperatures will rise well above average
tonight through Sunday with many inland locales rising above 40
degrees.

The low will then lift north toward the Bering Strait through
Sunday night. Rain and snow showers behind the low will continue
with the bulk of this precipitation along the coast. Temperatures
will slowly drop back closer to normal as weak cold air advection
filters in from the Bering behind the surface low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A strong gale force low will move into Bristol Bay today, with the
core of strongest winds remaining east of Cold Bay. The low will
then slowly weaken and move north along the southwest coast Sunday
evening. Colder air and north-northwest winds will then encompass
the remainder of the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
This forecast period commences with a low near Saint Lawrence
Island and Norton Sound. This setup will sustain southerly winds
across southwestern Alaska and enable weak warm advection. Monday
will see widespread areas of above freezing temperatures across
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. By Tuesday, the models are out
of sync with the next low entering the Gulf of Alaska. In a
nutshell, the ECMWF is progging the surface low near Kenai and the
GFS is placing the low 300 NM SE at the same time which would
have wildly different implications for the Southcentral AK. As
time elapses, the the GFS pushes that same low north which would
delay the onset of the QPF in PWS which makes hedging the best
tactic. Later in the long-term pattern, all of the models seem to
converge on two major sensible weather concepts. One, the
thickness values plummet bringing brutally cold air south of the
Alaska Range. Two, the seas near the Western Aleutians will become
very dynamic as another round of cyclogenesis is anticipated.
Given the vagaries of the models, hedged between the WPC guidance
and the previous grid package which resulted in small changes to
the long-term package.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Hurricane: 120 130 131.
         Storm: 119 125 132 136 137 138 139 141 351 352.
         Gale: 127 140 150 160 165 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JRA
LONG TERM...PJS