Storm Warning 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

928 
FZAK51 PAFC 131300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140145-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A quick moving front in the northern Gulf will intensify today 
then it will move westward inland Sun morning. A trough of low 
pressure will develop in the eastern Gulf Sun afternoon then it 
will move into the northern Gulf Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-140145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt increasing to 60 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft building to 32 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening becoming S 25 kt after 
midnight. Near the coast, SE wind 55 kt in the evening. Seas 29 ft 
subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt increasing to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 24 ft
building to 35 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 
27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140145-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140145-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance in 
the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 70 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance in the early evening. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140145-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140145-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140145-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140145-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt increasing 70 kt by the afternoon. Seas 32 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140145-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt increasing 70 kt by the afternoon. Seas 26 ft 
building to 32 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 50 kt, then becoming SE 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 30 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140145-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt by the afternoon. Seas
building to 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140145-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt by the afternoon.
Seas building to 25 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140145-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 60 kt by the afternoon. Seas 12
ft building to 26 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft diminishing to 12 ft in the
evening. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft building to 24 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming N 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 15 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-140145-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the evening. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the evening. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

435 
FZAK51 PAFC 140009
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141300-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front just south of the Kenai Peninsula will move into the 
eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. A 988 mb low 400 nm southeast of 
Middleton Island on Sun afternoon will move 45 nm east of 
Middleton Island at 991 mb by Sun night and then move inland. A 
new 976 mb low will form in the North Pacific Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening. Wind 25 kt after
midnight. Near the coast, SE wind 60 kt in the evening becoming 25 kt
after midnight. Seas 29 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except NE 30 kt near the coast. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
Resurrection Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Higher winds and seas south of Caines Head. Seas
5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
Prince William Sound-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
Port Valdez-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
Valdez Narrows-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
Valdez Arm-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
Passage Canal-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
Barren Islands East-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
Chiniak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
Marmot Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
Shelikof Strait-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 15 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
Kachemak Bay-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening decreasing to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern has largely transitioned to a highly
amplified trough-ridge pattern across Southern Alaska. The trough
is in place over the Bering where a vertically stacked low is
nearly stationary south of Dutch Harbor this morning. Meanwhile
for southern mainland Alaska, a building ridge over the area,
extending east over western North America, continues to pump warm
air into Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Along with the warm
air is a train of surface fronts, each bringing a round of gusty
winds and moderate precipitation.

One remarkable feature to note is that over the North Pacific,
well south of the Aleutians, the zonal part of the jet is at the
highest this meteorologist has ever seen. Trans-Pacific jets
flying the tail wind are reporting winds up to 230 kts. The 12Z EC
suggests the peak wind to be at 240 kts at jet stream level (300
mb) right now. Truly astounding!

For the analysis, one front over the North Gulf Coast and Prince
William Sound is spreading rain across the area. Temperatures at
all coastal sites around the area except Valdez are now above
freezing. The Middleton Island radar shows the nature of the
precipitation as numerous showers. The rain changes over to snow
in Portage and Turnagain Pass, but quickly downsloped and dries
out as it tries to clear the mountains into Anchorage, the Mat-Su,
and the western Kenai Peninsula. Another stronger front is close
on its heels, extending from Kodiak south and east across the
Gulf. This front is producing widespread gales. It too is headed
northbound and is destined for the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, much of
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska east of the Kuskokwim Mountains
remain either overcast or mostly cloudy, which along with the
winds are keeping temperatures up.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models continue to struggle mightily regarding the track and
strength of a series of lows looping south of the Alaska Peninsula
and the eastern Aleutians. Agreement is found in regard to a new
low developing along the Jet that will quickly replace the low
south of Dutch Harbor today. This new low will become the primary
low in the area. Generally, this new low is well handled as it's
in the first day or so of the model cycle. Once another low
develops south of Kodiak on Saturday morning, the model agreement
diminishes rapidly. The EC continues to be the fastest solution,
compared to the other models. However, because the other models
are catching up, and the EC has been very consistent with past
runs, it is the model of choice for this forecast package
especially with regards to the strength, and location of the low
as it tracks across the Alaska Peninsula and along the Southwest
Alaska coast. The models are also improving on their agreement
that the winds with the warm front east of the low across the Gulf
will be strong. Confidence is slowly rising, but still remains
below average given the large uncertainties between model
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through
this evening. Around midnight, strengthening southeasterly winds
aloft associated with the approaching Turnagain Arm Jet will lead
to LLWS concerns. Sometime in the early morning there should be a
brief break in the LLWS as the SE winds move over the airport for
a few hours, but as the northerlies return later in the morning
LLWS will return for the day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Fri and Sat)...
The much warmer and active weather pattern is beginning to be
felt over the Gulf coast as temperatures begin to rise slightly
above freezing. It should still be cool enough to support low
elevation snow through this morning before switching over to rain
in the afternoon. This will occur as the gale force front
intensifies to storm force as it approaches Prince William Sound
this afternoon before making landfall this evening. As this
occurs, the gusty winds from Turnagain Arm are expected to briefly
reach into the Anchorage Bowl late tonight as the strong down-
inlet flow begins to weaken. But as these winds will not be
significant, the more noticeable change will be from the rising
temperatures it will produce. This warming trend looks to only be
the beginning as a stronger and warmer system moves into the Gulf
for Saturday. The models are still struggling with the low
position, which continues to have a significant impact on
confidence in the finer scale details of the forecast (such as
strength/timing of gap winds). There is, however, good confidence
that this low will bring widespread storm force winds to much of
the North Gulf Coast, with persistent winds down Cook Inlet as
well as through Turnagain Arm and the Matanuska Valley (but with
low confidence in their strength). This low also looks to bring
snow levels to as high as 1500 ft along much of Gulf Coast,
causing the ptype for most of the road system to switch over to
rain. This rainfall still should be confided mainly to the Gulf
Coast and Southern Kenai Peninsula, with downsloping inland
generally limiting rainfall to light and short lived and periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A shortwave trough lifting over the region from the North Pacific
is bringing another round of snow to parts of Southwest today,
mainly along the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western
Capes toward Dillingham. This is also enhancing the pressure
gradient, so winds will peak today with some blowing snow along
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. This shortwave will lift north tonight
with drying conditions and briefly weakening winds.

The lull will be very brief, however, as another low moves north
toward Southwest and eventually into Bristol Bay tonight through
Saturday night. This will bring increasing northeast to southeast
winds and increasing snow and rain chances (all rain near Bristol
Bay with snow farther north along the Kuskokwim Delta coast).
Snow and blowing snow (potential for widespread reduced
visibility) will once again be a threat along the Kuskokwim Coast
Saturday afternoon and evening as the low moves into Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A front stretching from Seguam Island to the Western Capes will
continue to retrograde to the west today. This will keep the
strongest pressure gradient and associated northeast winds west of
the Pribilof Islands through this evening. The next low to impact
the Bering Sea will effectively come in two phases. The first low
will move toward the Alaska Peninsula tonight, increasing easterly
winds across Bristol Bay and toward the Eastern Aleutians before
a secondary reinforcing low moves in Saturday. This will bring
strong gale force winds to the coastal waters near the Alaska
Peninsula/Eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay. As the low moves into
the Bering Sea this will reinforce the northerly pressure
gradient over the remainder of the Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Starting the long term portion of the forecast early Sunday puts
the main low in the Bristol Bay to Kuskokwim Bay region and
tracking toward St Lawrence Island. This will bring in the warmest
temperatures of this warm-up on Sunday over most of the area and
then a slow cool down after that. Sunday will see widespread areas
of above freezing temperatures across Southcentral and Southwest
mainland Alaska. Winds will be a big factor in these temperatures
with places on the lee sides of mountain ranges (with regard to
Southeast winds) will see significantly higher temperatures as
downslope conditions are likely. Some more uncertainty creeps into
the forecast Monday into Tuesday in Southcentral Alaska as some
of the models are bringing in a weak low through the eastern Gulf
of Alaska. However, the models that are detecting this feature
are having difficulty deciding where it will track with solutions
ranging from Cook Inlet to Yakutat. After the low early next week
moves out of the area, it looks like the major lows will track
south of the forecast area bringing in a cooling trend through the
week and only weak features to deal with for the middle to later
part of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm: 119 120 130 131 132 138 351 352.
         Gales: 125 127 136 137 139 140 141 150 160 165 180.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EZ