Small Craft Advisory 367, NWS Anchorage, AK

368 
FZAK52 PAFC 052357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-061245-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 75 nm southeast of Nome will move north and weaken
through Mon. A 978 mb low 300 nm southwest of Shemya Sat night 
will move to 125 nm northeast of Adak at 974 mb Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-061245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-061245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight, Seas
8 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands
E, S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight, Seas 7 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-061245-
Bristol Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-061245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain with snow.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-061245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-061245-
Unalaska Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-061245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-061245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-061245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-061245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt by noon. Seas 8 ft building
to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-061245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Patchy fog. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-061245-
Adak to Kiska-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming N 40 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-061245-
Kiska to Attu-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-061245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after 
midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-061245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-061245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming W 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Freezing spray.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-061245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 PM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

317 
FZAK52 PAFC 061201
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070100-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 mb low 325 nm southwest of Shemya will move over Adak at 
973 mb by Mon morning and then to 160 nm southwest of St. George 
at 975 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-070100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. From Chirikof Island S, SW wind up to 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. From Chirikof Island E, S wind up to 10 in 
the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt in the evening becoming SE 40 kt. Seas 8 ft
in the evening building to 14 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, S 
wind 25 kt, Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt, except SE 35 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 18 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 9 ft building to 14
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070100-
Bristol Bay-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming variable up to 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind up to 10 kt in the evening becoming SE 20 
kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070100-
Unalaska Bay-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt in the morning increasing to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft
building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt in the morning becoming SE 45 kt. Seas 8 ft 
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt in the morning becoming SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 45 kt. Seas 16 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070100-
Adak to Kiska-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070100-
Kiska to Attu-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt in the evening increasing to 40 kt. Seas 10
ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind up to 10 kt. S of
Saint Matthew Island, variable wind up to 10 kt in the morning
becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 25
kt after midnight. S of Saint Mathew Island, E wind 25 kt increasing
to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKDT Fri May 4 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Satellite depicts a well-defined cyclone moving over Bristol Bay
with divergence stretching from the Alaska Range into the Gulf of
Alaska. A subtropical moisture connection strengthened through
the day.

With this Bering Sea low on the move, rain and wind are now focused
on Southcentral and Prince William Sound while cold air is
spilling into Southwest following the frontal passage.

A warm front lies just south of Prince William Sound while the
triple-point is moving north from Kachemak Bay and into the
southern Kenai Peninsula. The cold front has passed Kodiak city.

Gusty winds were blowing through the Turnagain Arm, Chugach, and
MatSu Valleys since early this morning. While blustery conditions
have been noticeable, all have remained below warning thresholds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models initialized well and are tracking together through 84
hours over Southcentral. We see minor discrepancies after Sunday
in the west where the NAM takes an early lead out of the gate with
the next Aleutian low.

Pressure difference forecasts have been on target with today's
Turnagain Arm wind shift and continue to show the strongest
pressure differences through 00z Saturday / 5p AKDT. While the
strongest gusts subside, it's also clear that blustery conditions
will continue through the weekend for Southcentral.

High resolution models were the choice for Southcentral and Prince
William Sound again today for detailed wind and precipitation
analysis. GFS remained the pick for Southwest and the Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southerly winds and gusts will remain along Turnagain Arm
through the period, but diminish slowly this evening. Showers and
short periods of rain are expect, however VFR is forecast to
prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front associated with the low out west continues to push
inland from the Gulf this evening, with the typical gap-driven
winds (Turnagain Arm, higher elevations, and the Knik River
Valley) beginning to slowly diminish through the tonight period.
The bulk of precipitation currently spread across much of the
northern Gulf coast area will shift further eastward tonight,
still covering the eastern portions of the Prince William Sound
area and Copper River Basin through tomorrow afternoon. Areas to
the west should become more showery tonight, and remain both
showery and breezy through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
The well-advertised low is currently pushing through SW AK
bringing very unsettled weather. The low center will drift from
the Kilbuck Mountains north through the YK-Delta overnight. This
will keep enough instability and lift across the area to make for
widespread rain and snow showers, some of them heavy at times.
Gusty northeast to southeast winds will persist until a trailing
trough lifts through the area tonight. This will allow the winds
to shift to westerly and allow some cold air to advect into the
area. This cold air and gusty onshore flow will bring widespread
snow showers to the area Sat. Accumulations will be near zero for
most population centers as the afternoon temperatures should
still rebound to near 40 for most locations.

Sun will bring continued unsettled weather as the cold trough
remains over the area. Some snow bands could set up across the
area coming off Bristol Bay and the Eastern Bering, but these
showers should favor the mountains. West to southwest winds will
slowly diminish through the day, though there will still be some
gusts with the unstable airmass in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
The main story for the weekend will be one low exiting the Eastern
Bering while another pushes into the Western Aleutians. As the
first low exits, it will leave a healthy amount of cold air
spilling down from the north. This should produce plenty of snow
showers, especially for the Pribilof Islands and the north side of
the Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula. Late Sat into Sun will bring a
brief break to the Central-Eastern Aleutians with a shortwave
ridge. However, the Western Aleutians will see yet another
developing low-pressure center push in Sat evening with another
round of winds, warm air, and rain. We increased winds to max-gale
force with the leading front with this system as it looks healthy
than it did on the past few model runs. The low will deepen to
near ~970 mb by Sun afternoon as it moves towards the Central
Aleutians. It will sling its warm occlusion out ahead of it from
west to east into Cold Bay by Sun night. This system will become
the dominant low across the entire state by the end of the weekend
stretching nearly 1100 miles from west to east. As it does so, it
will pull down some cold air on its backside and possibly bring
some storm-force north winds to the Western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Friday)...

On Monday, surface high pressure will build across the Gulf,
extending northward across much of Southcentral. This will be the
cause of a rare wind-free, precipitation-free, partly cloudy day
for most of Southcentral. Outdoor plans should definitely be made
for Monday. Meanwhile, for Kodiak and most of Southwest Alaska,
the next front will move in on Monday, though not reaching Kodiak
until late in the day. The front is associated with a sprawling
low, the center of which is expected to be about halfway between
Adak and the Pribilofs Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the Bering low remains in roughly the same area as on
Monday as it stalls. However, the front will continue drifting
slowly eastward, thus, the coast from Prince William Sound west
will see rain developing through the day, but the front will start
up the gap winds, so areas downwind of the Kenai Mountains and
Anchorage will stay dry, albeit cloudier than Monday. Meanwhile
points north and east of Anchorage will remain dry as well, but
that will be simply because the front doesn't make it that far.
Rain, heavy at times, will be likely on Tuesday from Kodiak
northward to about Seward.

From Wednesday onward, the models diverge significantly as to how
the front behaves. The GFS and EC keep the front largely
stationary, holding the heaviest rain in about the same areas as
on Tuesday, with relatively little rain for northeastern Prince
William Sound and points north and east. Downsloping continues to
keep the Anchorage area mainly dry regardless. The Canadian model
advances the front across the area, so all of the Gulf Coast gets
hit with rain on Wednesday. The GFS/EC solution brings the
remnants of the front into the rest of the Gulf Coast on Thursday,
which in its highly weakened state would diminish the downsloping
enough for the Anchorage area to potentially get in on the
rainfall action.

Meanwhile the low over the Bering dissipates in place on Thursday
with its remnants absorbed into a new low moving north out of the
Pacific towards the Alaska Peninsula. With the easterly flow
continuing, western Prince William Sound will remain wet
throughout Friday, while the rest of the area north of Kodiak
starts out the day dry. The next round of precipitation with the
associated front reaches the north Gulf Coast by Friday evening.
The models in surprisingly good agreement on the behavior of the
front on Friday considering the previous days (Wednesday and
Thursday), there is far more disagreement.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 152.
MARINE...Gales 180 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JW