Gale Warning 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

532 
FZAK62 PAFC 061151
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070130-
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 48N 170E will move to 52N 176W at 973 mb by Mon
morning and then to 55N 172W at 975 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 8 to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain
and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt in the evening diminishing to 15 to 30
kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt, except SE wind 15 to 30 kt E of 175W. 
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 AM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

437 
FZAK62 PAFC 062353
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071345-
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low at 50N 177E moves to 53N 175W at 974 mb Mon
afternoon. The low then moves to 55N 171W at 976 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.  Snow and rain
showers.
.MON...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 PM AKDT Sun May 6 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

925 
FZAK62 PAFC 071156
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080045-
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 973 mb low at 51N 180W
moves to 54N 172W at 976 mb by Tue morning and then to 57N 172W at 
980 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-080045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Snow and widespread
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow and widespread
rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Widespread rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms..
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Widespread rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

390 
FZAK62 PAFC 072311
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081330-
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb low at 52N 172W loops to 55N 176W at 980 mb for Wed 
afternoon. Its front wraps over the Western and Northern Bering
into Western Alaska through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.  Snow and rain
showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

894 
FZAK62 PAFC 080750
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-082215-
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb low at 52N 172W loops to 55N 176W at 980 mb for Wed 
afternoon. Its front wraps over the Western and Northern Bering
into Western Alaska through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-082215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.  Snow and rain
showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-082215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-082215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-082215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
1150 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Widespread rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

786 
FZAK62 PAFC 081156
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090045-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 976 mb low at 55N 171W moves to
56N 174W at 979 mb by Wed morning and then to 55N 175W at 985 mb by 
Thu morning. A 976 mb low Wed afternoon at 47N 163W moves to 52N 159W
at 974 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...N to E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening.
.WED...SE to NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...N to W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...W to S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Isolated 
thunderstorms in the evening.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Sat May 5 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Ridging remains over western Canada, while a vertically stacked
low sits behind it over the Y-K Delta. This low that brought
breezy conditions over the past day to the Kenai Peninsula and
Turnagain Arm is now pulling cold air from the Bering into
Southcentral. An amplified 130 kt jet is directed at Southcentral
from Prince William Sound eastward, bringing a subtropical
moisture fetch to the north Gulf coast from the atmospheric river
in the North Pacific.

The Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound have both seen
decent amounts of rain in the past day. Currently heavy precipitation
remains along the north Gulf coast and is switching over from
rain to snow in Valdez, as the moisture is shifting eastward as
the cold front passes over the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in excellent agreement with the large
scale synoptic pattern through the middle of next week. The
pattern is relatively stable as the strong low which moved into SW
Alaska yesterday slowly weakens. Meanwhile, over the Bering Sea,
a rather strong (for this time of year) near storm force low is
also being well-modeled by the guidance with little spread among
the model members. Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty southeast winds are expected to remain at the
terminal through the forecast period. Intermittent showers will be
a threat as well, but conditions are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main bulk of the precipitation that is currently spread from
Prince William Sound eastward will push east today and be in the
Panhandle by the afternoon. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will
continue to bring showers to the area through Sunday evening.
Showers will increase across the Cook Inlet area through the
Matanuska and Susitna valleys Sunday afternoon and evening as an
upper level short-wave moves across the area from the southwest.
Showers will then diminish or end from west to east Sunday
night behind this short-wave as the flow aloft becomes westerly.
Breezy conditions will continue over much of Southcentral through
Saturday as the low centered near the Yukon Delta slowly moves
north. Winds will then become fairly light on Sunday as surface
high pressure builds over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A northward drifting, vertically-stacked low continues to spin
over the Y-K Delta this morning. Colder air advecting in behind
this occluded system is helping to keep the atmosphere
destabilized. This will result in a continuation of widespread
mixed precipitation from the Kilbuck Mountains on north through
early Saturday. Mixed precipitation will also continue to push
northeast from Bristol Bay through the Nushagak River valley and
northern AKPen as a trailing surface trough east of Cape Newenham
slides into SW AK by mid-morning. Scattered snow showers will
continue over SW AK through Sunday afternoon as two upper-level
shortwaves pinwheel through SW AK, keeping the region in a moist,
westerly flow and enhancing instability. A fast-moving ridge of
high pressure sliding across the eastern Aleutians will provide a
brief respite from the unsettled weather Sunday evening through
the first half of Monday before clouds begin to overspread the
area in advance of the next warm occlusion lifting up from the
central Aleutians.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Cold air continues to spill southward over the Bering and across
the Aleutians as the first low continues to spin slowly northward
across the west coast of mainland Alaska. Gusty north winds along
with a shortwave digging south through the central Bering today
will trigger numerous snow showers for the Pribilofs and the north
side of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through late Saturday.
Conditions will briefly improve across the central and eastern
Aleutians overnight Saturday through Sunday morning as a
deepening low well south of Shemya amplifies a building ridge of
high pressure downstream.

For the western Aleutians, conditions will quickly deteriorate
overnight Saturday and into Sunday as rapidly strengthening low
pressure brings another shot of gale-force winds, warm air, and
rain to the region. By Sunday afternoon, this low will deepen to
970 mb and swing a warm occlusion ahead of the center of
circulation. The front will move quickly through the central
Aleutians, nearing Cold Bay by Sunday evening. Widespread
precipitation and gales will encompass much of the Aleutian chain,
Bering Sea, and western AKPen as this system becomes the dominant
weather feature through the first half of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Monday through Friday)...

On Monday, surface high pressure will build across the Gulf,
extending northward across much of Southcentral. This will be the
cause of a rare wind-free, precipitation-free, partly cloudy day
for most of Southcentral. Outdoor plans should definitely be made
for Monday. Meanwhile, for Kodiak and most of Southwest Alaska,
the next front will move in on Monday, though not reaching Kodiak
until late in the day. The front is associated with a sprawling
low, the center of which is expected to be about halfway between
Adak and the Pribilofs Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, the Bering low remains in roughly the same area as on
Monday as it stalls. However, the front will continue drifting
slowly eastward, thus, the coast from Prince William Sound west
will see rain developing through the day, but the front will start
up the gap winds, so areas downwind of the Kenai Mountains and
Anchorage will stay dry, albeit cloudier than Monday. Meanwhile
points north and east of Anchorage will remain dry as well, but
that will be simply because the front doesn't make it that far.
Rain, heavy at times, will be likely on Tuesday from Kodiak
northward to about Seward.

From Wednesday onward, the models diverge significantly as to how
the front behaves. The GFS and EC keep the front largely
stationary, holding the heaviest rain in about the same areas as
on Tuesday, with relatively little rain for northeastern Prince
William Sound and points north and east. Downsloping continues to
keep the Anchorage area mainly dry regardless. The Canadian model
advances the front across the area, so all of the Gulf Coast gets
hit with rain on Wednesday. The GFS/EC solution brings the
remnants of the front into the rest of the Gulf Coast on Thursday,
which in its highly weakened state would diminish the downsloping
enough for the Anchorage area to potentially get in on the
rainfall action.

Meanwhile the low over the Bering dissipates in place on Thursday
with its remnants absorbed into a new low moving north out of the
Pacific towards the Alaska Peninsula. With the easterly flow
continuing, western Prince William Sound will remain wet
throughout Friday, while the rest of the area north of Kodiak
starts out the day dry. The next round of precipitation with the
associated front reaches the north Gulf Coast by Friday evening.
The models are in surprisingly good agreement on the behavior of
the front on Friday considering the previous days (Wednesday and
Thursday), there is far more disagreement.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory...152.
MARINE...Gales...170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA/AH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1204 PM AKDT SAT MAY 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 SE VALDEZ             61.13N 146.35W
05/05/2018  E18.0 INCH       VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 2 FT OF FLUFFY SNOW COMPACTED DOWN
            TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME OF
            OBSERVATION.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       MILE 7 RICHARDSON HWY   61.08N 146.19W
05/05/2018  E14.0 INCH       VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TOTAL SNOWFALL BUT STILL SNOWING. 10 INCHES
            OF SNOW FELL BETWEEN 2-4 AM.

1000 AM     HEAVY SNOW       T-PASS DOT CAMP         61.17N 145.70W
05/05/2018  E24.0 INCH       VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            2 FT OF SNOW ESTIMATED AT BASE CAMP.

0702 AM     HEAVY SNOW       DOWNTOWN VALDEZ         61.13N 146.35W
05/05/2018  M8.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL OVER LAST 9 HOURS. STILL SNOWING.

&&