Small Craft Advisory 264, NWS Anchorage, AK

142 
FZAK52 PAFC 301127
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-310045-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

One front lingers over the western Bering into Fri while another 
sits south of the Aleutian Chain through Sat. High pressure pushes 
into the Eastern Bering through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-310045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-310045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt except NE 10 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except NE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-310045-
Bristol Bay-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-310045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-310045-
Unalaska Bay-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-310045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-310045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-310045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-310045-
Adak to Kiska-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side...16 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-310045-
Kiska to Attu-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-310045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-310045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-310045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-310045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 AM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SW 30 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

801 
FZAK52 PAFC 302303
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-311145-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
High pressure remains over the Eastern Bering through Sun 
afternoon. One front falls apart over the Western Bering by 
Sat morning while a second front slides into the Southern 
Bering Sat afternoon through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-311145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-311145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt except NE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt except NE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt except E 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 16 ft except 10 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-311145-
Bristol Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-311145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-311145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-311145-
Unalaska Bay-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-311145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-311145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-311145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-311145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-311145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-311145-
Adak to Kiska-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft Bering side...13 ft
Pacific side. Areas of fog.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft Bering side...15 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-311145-
Kiska to Attu-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-311145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-311145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-311145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-311145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
303 PM AKDT Fri Mar 30 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Thu Mar 29 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level feature over the region continues to be a
long wave trough over the Eastern Bering and western mainland
Alaska. A weak surface low over the Kuskokwim Delta and
predominate west/southwest flow around the base of the trough is
leading to areas of light snow over the eastern Kuskokwim Delta,
with clearing skies leading to fog forming near Bethel and along
the coast. A few persistent light snow showers are still showing
up over Anchorage/Matanuska Valley tonight as a series of weak
vorticity maxima continue to track through the area around the
base of the upper trough. Out west, an upper level ridge is
beginning to build in over the western half of the Bering and
Aleutians, bringing rather tranquil weather to that region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models seem to have a good grasp on the building of the high
pressure into western Alaska and the development of an outflow
pattern along the Chugach Mountains heading into the weekend. The
high resolution models (WRF) have been depicting the showery
activity over Southcentral much better than other models over the
past day or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will be predominate over
the terminal today. An upper trough moves though this afternoon leading
to showers developing over the mountains while dropping ceilings
to around 5000 ft over the terminal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level trough is west of southcentral Alaska today and
is slowly moving eastward. It will move over the area this
evening and overnight before developing into a cut-off low in the
Gulf Friday. This will keep an isolated snow shower or two around
until the trough moves through tonight. By Friday the low in the
Gulf will allow more northerly flow which will clear skies over
the region and increase winds through channeled terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
One more shortwave trough will move across the region from the
west today and support scattered snow showers area wide through
this evening. A prolonged stretch of dry conditions will then
settle in tonight into Friday as the ridge builds over the Bering
Sea and begins to influence the southwest mainland. Steep
temperature inversions and light low level flow will bring the
potential for widespread fog development Thursday night across
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. Fog potential is a little
more uncertain in subsequent nights as increasing offshore flow
may serve as an inhibiting factor heading into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will dominate the Bering through the end of the week
as strong subsidence promotes extensive stratus and fog
development in the presence of relatively light winds. The only
surface feature of note will be a weak front extending from a
Kamchatka low, however the ridge will inhibit any eastward
movement and help to keep the front west of the Aleutian chain
through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
High confidence remains with high pressure building in over the
eastern Bering that will last through the weekend before
diminishing and tracking west. This will leave southern Alaska in
an outflow pattern through the weekend and into early next week.
However, the guidance is still struggling with an upper level low
tracking south through the state. Models vary on how the low will
track and how much cold air it will bring, including the timing
of the cold air. This will impact how strong winds are over the
north Gulf coast next week and exactly when the strongest winds
will occur. Operational runs were used through much of the weekend
with the better agreement and ensembles were used moving into
next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK