Small Craft Advisory 112, NWS Anchorage, AK

041 
FZAK52 PAFC 060006
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-061300-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 mb low 135 nm Southwest of Attu moves to Kamchatka by Wed 
morning. The associated front stretches over the Western Bering 
through Wed afternoon. A 982 mb low 620 nm Southwest of Attu 
moves to 300 nm South of Amchitka at 977 mb Tue morning then hooks
to 285 nm North of Amchitka at 973 mb by Wed afternoon. A 993 mb 
low 115 nm Northwest of Cold Bay dissipates in the Northern Bering
for Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-061300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-061300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-061300-
Bristol Bay-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-061300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt except 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-061300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-061300-
Unalaska Bay-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-061300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas
10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-061300-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-061300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-061300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-061300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-061300-
Adak to Kiska-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-061300-
Kiska to Attu-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-061300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-061300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 10 ft. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-061300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-061300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
414 PM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large upper ridge over the mainland bought another fairly
clear and cold night across the interior southwest Alaska and
Southcentral. Morning lows ranged from the -30s F over the lower
Kuskokwim Valley, minus single digits to minus teens over the
Anchorage Bowl/Mat Valley, to around -40F of the Copper River
Basin. A fairly diffuse frontal band extending from the eastern
Bering Sea to across the central Gulf of Alaska brought clouds and
warmer temperatures to coastal Southwest Alaska and a little
light snow over Kodiak Island. Fairly tight pressure and thermal
gradients continued gusty outflow winds over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Thompson Pass/Keystone Canyon, Valdez Narrows into the
afternoon hours today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The general synoptic pattern is fairly similar between the models
with all showing a pattern change to cloudier and warmer weather
this week. The NAM/ECMWF are overall preferred in the with the
position of surface low moving into the northern Gulf. The GFS
appears to be a little too strong and too far west. For the
western domain, models have minor differences in the low position
as it heads north and skirts the southwest coast, but the general
sensible weather ends up being about the same.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is the
possibility of some patchy fog developing along Knik Arm Monday
morning. If this does happen, it would likely bring IFR ceiling
and visibilities. Although confidence is not high this will occur,
it bears consideration.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Southern Alaska remains under the influence of the dominant
arctic high which has been in place for the last week and a half.
One more really cold night is in store as the pressure gradient
weakens and skies remain clear. On Monday, a warm front will lift
north through the Gulf and reach the North Coast by the afternoon,
spreading rain to Kodiak and all snow for the North Coast. Snow
will spread inland, with accumulations of 3-5" for parts of the
Kenai Peninsula. The front will quickly fall apart as it lifts
inland, but light snow will likely spread into Anchorage and the
southern Copper Basin Monday night into early Tuesday. However,
inland amounts north of the Kenai Peninsula look to much lower
with 1-2" or less. The low weakens and moves east Tuesday evening,
bringing snow to an end as surface high pressure re-establishes
itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...
A potent low is taking shape over the North Pacific and will
bring a fairly dramatic shift in the weather to much of SW AK.
Clear skies tonight will allow for another night rapidly cooling
temperatures. But clouds will be on the increase through the day
Monday with the approaching low. East to southeast flow will also
be on the increase, which will help somewhat warmer air to move
into the area. However, temperatures will remain cold enough to
support all snow as precipitation arrives. Snow should start in
the early afternoon for Bristol Bay and then slide into the
Kuskokwim Valley and Delta by midnight. At this time, it looks
like things will be too warm to support much in the way of blowing
snow or even snow accumulations greater than a couple of inches.
However, by the time we get into early Tuesday morning, the low
center itself moves across the Alaska Peninsula and parallels the
coast. It will recycle some colder air and push it into the coast
with some southwest flow. This could lead to some heavier snow
showers and some blowing snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
The pattern will remain quite active across the Bering and the
Alaska Peninsula to start the week. The first low southwest of
Adak will continue to decay as it spins over the Western
Aleutians. Meanwhile, the afore mentioned North Pacific low will
take shape and move fairly quickly into the Eastern Bering.
Between these two systems, an elongated deformation axis will
continue to produce steady rain/snow from Dutch Harbor through the
Western Bering. Expect gale-force easterlies to develop tonight
south of the Alaska Peninsula and then spread into the Eastern
Bering Monday morning. With some modest pressure rises behind the
system, gusty southwest winds will develop through the Eastern
Aleutians/AK Peninsula Monday evening into Tue. As this low
drifts northwest and weakens, a new low will bring another round
of rain and small-craft level winds to the Central Aleutians
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday evening through Sunday night)...
Our extended forecast begins mid-week with a weak low pressure and
front in the Gulf, bringing snow to the north gulf coast, and
exiting to the east. For interior locations this means clouds and
possibly some very light snow, followed by clear and cold for late
week. Out west, the next active feature of the pattern is a
longwave trough, weakening and broadening over Kamchatka. Both it
and the blocking ridge are decaying from their current state. A
frontal boundary and deep southerly flow will exist across the
Bering Sea.

Into the longer term forecast, guidance quickly devolves into a
jumbled mess. As the two previous anchors in the longwave pattern,
the blocking high and Kamchatka trough, break down, guidance
struggles with a very active east Asian jet, and where exactly to
direct that energy. The big differences in the deterministic
models have to do with how they handle the blocking high pressure.
The ECMWF re-establishes it over the Bering Strait region, keeping
Southcentral AK in a cold outflow pattern, while the GFS wants to
build in a ridge from the sub-tropics getting us into a chinook
pattern. Literally opposites. The extended guidance from WPC will
utilize an ensemble blend for the forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 131 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 180.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 127 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...ML