Gale Warning 144, NWS Anchorage, AK

784 
FZAK52 PAFC 051300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-060145-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 140 nm west of Adak will make landfall near 
Kamchatka Tue. A 994 mb low 160 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor 
will move to 95 nm east of St. Paul at 990 mb tonight then it 
will exit into the northeastern Bering Tue afternoon. A 976 mb 
North Pacific low will move to 190 nm southwest of Adak Tue 
afternoon then it will move to 120 nm southwest of Adak at 
972 mb Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-060145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-060145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. From the 
Shumagin Islands E, E wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-060145-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters
building to 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-060145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-060145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-060145-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-060145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt by midday. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-060145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-060145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-060145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-060145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-060145-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-060145-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-060145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-060145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Snow.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-060145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-060145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKST Sun Feb 4 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level ridging remains weakly in place over southern mainland
Alaska this morning. The weak anticyclonic flow is keeping the
atmosphere extremely dry through all levels. As a result, away
from the coast, skies remain crystal clear this morning.
Meanwhile, more moisture continues to creep closer to the Gulf
Coast. An area of low pressure over the Southern and Central Gulf
is expected to track east into the Panhandle, leaving conditions
status quo for the short term. Meanwhile another disorganized low
currently near 40N is on its way, and this one looks to have more
success intruding into Southcentral Alaska for the workweek.

The other low impacting the area is centered south of the Western
and Central Aleutians. This low vertically stacked with an upper
level low. The combined system is drawing more moisture northward
into the Aleutians and helping drive the moisture over the
Southeastern Bering northward with time.

While the winds are largely a non-issue now, they remain elevated
enough in some areas to really make the temperature forecast a
tricky one. Where the winds remain going, temperatures are
significantly warmer than where they've stopped. Even a light wind
makes all the difference between the subzero temperatures being
seen in the Susitna Valley to teens above zero in Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in decent agreement through Monday afternoon
regarding the broad synoptic scale pattern, bringing a low and its
attendant warm front northward and crossing the Alaska Peninsula
near Cold Bay during the day Monday. They also agree on tracking another
low westward across the Central and Western Aleutians Sunday
night into Monday. Some disagreement lies in where the models have
a secondary low developing over the Gulf Monday night going. The
NAM is much farther east than the other models, which are a bit
more clustered tracking the low further west towards Cordova by
Tuesday evening. This impacts where the heaviest associated
precipitation winds up, and potentially warm air intrusion causing
precipitation type issues. For Anchorage and the Cook Inlet
region, upper level forcing will be the primary generator of
precipitation, so the model differences there lie in how much
moisture gets brought westward over the mountains into the area.
With otherwise clear skies and light winds through much of
Southern Alaska, forecast confidence is high until Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Sunday and Monday)...
The longwave pattern features a dome of high pressure over the
Chukchi Sea with a ridge axis extending south of the Brooks Range.
Meanwhile, there is a negatively tilted shortwave southeast of
Kodiak Island. Cold and dry conditions will persist over the
Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su Valleys. With the lack of
cloud coverage, strong radiational cooling will occur over night
and brisk morning temperatures are expected across Southcentral.
Many will wake up to single digit or sub-zero temperatures this
morning in the Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys while Glennallen
will be grappling with temperatures near negative 40 again. The
models are pinging into another system moving towards Kodiak early
in the week, and what's interesting about this storm is it will
have a more northerly track than its predecessor which will bring
cloud coverage up Cook Inlet to everyone's delight. The first
sensible weather impact will be an appreciable increase in morning
temperatures. The second impact will be delivering a fresh batch
of snow to the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. It's too
early to tell how much Anchorage may or may not get with this
system. At this time, with the models placing the surface low
south of Middleton Island so it is safe to say that the lion's
share of the QPF will be well south and east of Anchorage. Stay
tuned for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Sunday through Tuesday)...
The region will see one more day of quiet and cool weather before
a pattern change bringing warmer/wetter conditions for the start
the work week. This pattern change will occur as the ridge of high
pressure over the Mainland, that had been protecting the area for
the last week, retreats to the east allowing for a gale force
North Pacific low to track northward into the Eastern Bering. This
system will begin impacting Bristol Bay on Monday evening with a
rain/snow mix along with gusty easterly winds through the typical
areas along the Aleutian Range. These will also keep eastern
Bristol Bay mostly dry from widespread downsloping, however areas
further west including Dillingham, should expect to see a quick
inch or so as the front makes landfall, which will then spread
north into the Kuskokwim Delta for late Monday. Beginning Tuesday,
uncertainty begins to develop with the track of this low into the
Eastern Bering which is having a significant impact on forecast
confidence, especially with respect to precipitation. As a result
much of the Southwest is under a broad-brushed chance of snow for
now, but this will certainly need to be fine tuned once model
agreement begins to improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Sunday through Tuesday)...
The pattern change discussed in the Southwest discussion above
will begin impacting the Eastern Aleutians/AKpen as early as late
tonight with gale force easterly winds and rain as the front from
the North Pacific low moves through the region. This low is
expected to cross the AKpen into the Eastern Bering on Monday
afternoon, leaving southwesterly flow and rain showers in it's
wake that should persist into Tuesday. Starting late Tuesday, the
focus will then shift into the Central Bering as a separate gale
force low brings rain/southerly gales to that area through
Tuesday. Overall model agreement with both of these systems is
very good and forecast confidence is above average.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday evening through Saturday night)...
Expect slightly moderated temperatures from the current regime
with more chances for snow in most areas. The extended forecast
begins with the blocking high pressure far enough north to begin
to allow some of the cyclonic flow and embedded shortwave troughs
northward toward the southern mainland. The result is two weak low
centers, one moving over Bristol Bay toward Nunivak Island, and
the other toward the Panhandle in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska.
A stretching/decaying front stretches between the two and will be
moving ashore southern Alaska, bringing a chance of snow to most
areas, with the best chances along the north Gulf coast.

In to the longer term forecast, the upper level pattern will be
anchored by a longwave trough centered near Kamchatka. The jet
stream and storm track will ride south of the Aleutian chain into
the Gulf of Alaska, a potentially more active snow pattern for
most areas. However, this pattern looks to be more progressive,
pushing waves off to the east. To get a real good snow pattern for
southcentral Alaska, we'd like to see the longwave trough centered
over southwest Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales: 127 138 150 155 160 165 180.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 127 160.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...ML