Small Craft Advisory 1010, NWS Anchorage, AK

725 
FZAK51 PAFC 210042
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211330-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front moves into the Gulf Thu afternoon. The associated 973 mb low
280 nm southeast of Sand Point Thu afternoon moves to 280 nm 
southeast of Sitkinak at 984 mb by Fri afternoon and then moves to 
140 nm west of Kodiak City at 993 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211330-
Resurrection Bay-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211330-
Prince William Sound-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211330-
Port Valdez-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211330-
Valdez Narrows-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211330-
Valdez Arm-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211330-
Passage Canal-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211330-
Barren Islands East-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211330-
Chiniak Bay-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211330-
Marmot Bay-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and
rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211330-
Shelikof Strait-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-211330-
Kachemak Bay-
342 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

664 
FZAK51 PAFC 211223
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220100-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 985 mb low 140 nm southeast of Sitkinak moves over Sitkinak Sat
night at 993 mb and then moves over Middleton Island at 1002 mb 
Sun night. A front enters the western Gulf Sun night.

$$

PKZ119-220100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220100-
Resurrection Bay-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Snow.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow 
and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220100-
Prince William Sound-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers and
rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220100-
Port Valdez-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220100-
Valdez Narrows-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220100-
Valdez Arm-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220100-
Passage Canal-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220100-
Barren Islands East-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220100-
Chiniak Bay-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220100-
Marmot Bay-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220100-
Shelikof Strait-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220100-
Kachemak Bay-
323 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Since yesterday, the trough over Southwest Alaska extending over
Kodiak has now become a newly formed closed low over the western
Gulf east of Kodiak City. The remaining trough still persists
across Bristol Bay and extending northwestward over the Kuskokwim
Delta. This has made the entire upper level trough become very
negatively tilted, forming a boomerang shape. Meanwhile across the
Bering, a very pronounced deformation band has developed, which
extends southeast to northwest across the Cold Bay area and out
into the western Bering. This is a classic boundary signature of
cold air to the north and east of the boundary deflecting the
incoming warmth and moisture from the south into a line
perpendicular to the incoming moisture. In the upper levels, this
ridging is rather weak. To the west, heights actually drop due to
an incoming trough associated with an even deeper upper level low
centered over the southern Sea of Okhotsk. The ridge in between
the incoming trough and the trough over mainland Alaska is
essentially being squeezed out and elongated with time, a feature
common with distinct deformation zones.

The upper low over the Gulf is slowly tracking northward with
time and enhancing lift and upper level divergence ahead of it.
In this case, that means along the Gulf Coast and the Kenai
Peninsula. Thus, those areas are continuing to see steady light
snow. Even Cordova has cooled enough to get all snow. The key is
the strongest lift, and thus, heaviest snow are concentrated along
the Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound, with a rather distinct
northern edge, which is approximately along an Anchorage to Valdez
line. The upper flow out of the east is helping keep Anchorage
and points north relatively drier due to cross-barrier flow across
the Chugach. Conversely, snow extends further north across the
southern Susitna Valley due to upslope.

Temperature-wise across Southwest, we are seeing conditions
broadly below zero at most inland locations. That said, those
sites with a significant wind, such as Iliamna are staying above
zero. A fair bit of stratus is moving southward across the
Kuskokwim Delta south of Bethel. The cold spots this morning are
Aniak and King Salmon, both of which are well colder than negative
20 with calm winds and mainly clear skies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As has been the case the past several days, the models are in
generally good agreement on the placement of the large scale
features, but how those translate to the surface is very much in
disagreement. Light steering level winds ultimately will make any
surface lows that form in the Gulf move very slowly. Thus, any
changes in the weather would be slow. Additional disagreements in
the models appear by Thursday regarding a front moving into the
western Bering and where any associated surface lows develop. In
addition, the models are having a difficult time deciding even by
this afternoon how quickly a stationary surface low south of
Seward begins to move eastward and how quickly any secondary lows
form. Confidence even with as early as today's forecast regarding
timing and location of snow and any associated wind shifts
remains unusually low for how short the time frame involved is.
Quieter weather returning Thursday and beyond to Southcentral will
help improve forecast confidence as concerns turn to gap winds and
how cold the temperatures get.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered snow showers are producing brief periods of MVFR
conditions, but conditions are expected to steadily improve over
the next few hours as the snow tapers off. A few more snow showers
may get as close to the Hillside, but otherwise offshore winds
will dry out the area with predominately VFR conditions expected
for the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Anchorage International Airport tied its record consecutive days
with measurable snowfall this morning at 9 days. This is the first
time in the 21st century this has happened. Below are the other
streaks of 9 consecutive days of measurable snow and the total
snow that fell during those 9 days:

1) December 11-19, 2018: Total Snowfall: 21.7 inches
2) December 4-12, 1991: Total Snowfall: 13.0 inches
3) November 26- December 4, 1987: Total Snowfall: 19.3 inches
4) February 16-24, 1968: Total Snowfall: 23.4 inches
5) March 31- April 8, 1956: Total Snowfall: 10.6 inches

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level low stretching across the western and northern
Gulf will drift northward overnight tonight. This feature is
associated with a weakening trough and meso-low at the surface,
with the trough over Prince William Sound and the meso-low in the
northern Gulf moving northwest over Middleton Island. Areas of
snow have been falling along the trough from Whittier and
Turnagain Pass west through Turnagain Arm with widespread moderate
snow showers throughout Prince William Sound. This will continue
through the evening and overnight hours as the trough stalls and
the surface low tracks farther west. For locations like Whitter
and Portage, an additional 6 to 10 inches of snow is expected
overnight into tomorrow. The upper-level trough lifts north
tomorrow, but persistent moist, easterly fetch through the sound
will keep snow showers going along the upslope areas of the
eastern Kenai and Chugach Mountains through Thursday. Another
trough moves north late Thursday into Friday with another round of
snow and perhaps a rain/snow mix along the east coast of Kodiak
Island. For the Southcentral interior, clear and dry conditions
will persist through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The southwest mainland remains under a dry cold air advection
pattern through the end of the work week. Expect temperatures to
begin to moderate slightly warmer on Friday as the low pressure
from the west begins to lift toward the Southwest, shunting the
dominant ridge north of the Bering Strait.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A developing low pressure system slowly tracks east south of of
the Aleutians tonight spreading a mix of rain and snow along with
gusty gale force winds through Thursday night, then tracks south
of the Gulf. Another weak surface low which developed this
afternoon just west of the Pribilof Islands, which was not
previously expected, will keep winds more easterly resulting in
colder temperatures. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing
Snow with the afternoon package as the freezing line remained just
south of St. Paul Island. This new surface low drifts west early
Thursday morning ending blowing snow conditions as the
precipitation bands shift. The next front quickly moves to the
western Aleutians on Thursday night bringing another gale force
front.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Saturday starts off by bringing a weakening low into the southern
Gulf with gusty conditions along the north Gulf coast. The exact
position of the low is still a bit different between models, but
no matter where it is, offshore flow and precipitation along
coastal areas of Southcentral should will be the main focus for
the weekend. Early next week (Mon/Tues) should remain relatively
dry for Southcentral.

Models have come into better agreement with a surface low moving
over the western Aleutians on Saturday, which previous models
showed as a front. The models tend to show this low weakening by
Sunday as another deep low sitting south of Adak lifts northward
over the Aleutian Chain. A front associated with this low will
move into the Gulf sometime between Tuesday and Thursday. Exact
movement and intensity of this low looks to be the biggest
forecast challenge as it should weaken and move into the Bering
through the middle of next week. Updating these low features were
the focus of today's forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 195.
MARINE...Gale 130 155 172-179 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 130 160 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...AH