Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2018

Gale Warning 747, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 19, 2018

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 19, 2018, 3:43 PM AKST. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 19, 2018, 3:43 PM AKST (00:43 UTC)
Expired
Dec 22, 2018, 3:42 AM AKST
In force
60 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

731 
FZAK62 PAFC 200043
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201415-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb low at 50N 169W will move to the North Pacific Thu morning.
A 985 mb low will develop at 56N 156W Thu morning then it will 
dissipate Fri morning. A 982 mb North Pacific low will move to 50N 
179W Fri morning then it will move to 52N 177E at 980 mb Fri 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
and rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$
5 follow-up statements
704 
FZAK62 PAFC 201301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210145-
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 50N 162W moves into the Gulf Thu night. A front
approaches the western Aleutians Thu evening and generates a 982 mb 
low at 48N 178W Thu evening. The low moves to 50N 173E at 970 mb Fri 
night.

$$

PKZ411-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray north of
58N.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 AM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray north of
the Pribilofs.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$
882 
FZAK62 PAFC 210024
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211400-
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 mb low at 51N 158W Thu afternoon moves to 54N 148W at 984 
mb by Fri afternoon. A front moves across the western Aleutians
and Bering through Saturday night.

$$

PKZ411-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 22 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
324 PM AKST Thu Dec 20 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$
510 
FZAK62 PAFC 211250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220145-
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 51N 169E moves to 45N 178E at 985 mb Sat night and
then moves to 46N 175W at 982 mb Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 57N.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 57N.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 57N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 57N.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray north of 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$
086 
FZAK62 PAFC 220026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221445-
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 976 mb low at 52N 174E will move to move west and out of the 
Bering Sat afternoon. The associated front over the western Bering 
will dissipate Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Snow showers and
rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Fri Dec 21 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$
522 
FZAK62 PAFC 221242
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230145-
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 52N 171E moves to 50N 173E Sat night at 980 mb. 
The low then moves to 48N 172W at 983 mb Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
342 AM AKST Sat Dec 22 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 19, 5:07 AM AKST, 10 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 19, 5:07 AM AKST, 10 hours 36 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Wed Dec 19 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Since yesterday, the trough over Southwest Alaska extending over
Kodiak has now become a newly formed closed low over the western
Gulf east of Kodiak City. The remaining trough still persists
across Bristol Bay and extending northwestward over the Kuskokwim
Delta. This has made the entire upper level trough become very
negatively tilted, forming a boomerang shape. Meanwhile across the
Bering, a very pronounced deformation band has developed, which
extends southeast to northwest across the Cold Bay area and out
into the western Bering. This is a classic boundary signature of
cold air to the north and east of the boundary deflecting the
incoming warmth and moisture from the south into a line
perpendicular to the incoming moisture. In the upper levels, this
ridging is rather weak. To the west, heights actually drop due to
an incoming trough associated with an even deeper upper level low
centered over the southern Sea of Okhotsk. The ridge in between
the incoming trough and the trough over mainland Alaska is
essentially being squeezed out and elongated with time, a feature
common with distinct deformation zones.

The upper low over the Gulf slowly tracking northward with time
is enhancing lift and upper level divergence ahead of it. In this
case, that means along the Gulf Coast and the Kenai Peninsula.
Thus, those areas are continuing to see steady light snow. Even
Cordova has cooled enough to get all snow. The key is the
strongest lift, and thus, heaviest snow are concentrated along the
Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound, with a rather distinct
northern edge, which is approximately along an Anchorage to Valdez
line. The upper flow out of the east is helping keep Anchorage and
points north relatively drier due to cross-barrier flow across the
Chugach. Conversely, snow extends further north across the
southern Susitna Valley due to upslope.

Temperature-wise across Southwest, we are seeing conditions
broadly below zero at most inland locations. That said, those
sites with a significant wind, such as Iliamna are staying above
zero. A fair bit of stratus is moving southward across the
Kuskokwim Delta south of Bethel. The cold spots this morning are
Aniak and King Salmon, both of which are well colder than negative
20 with calm winds and mainly clear skies.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As has been the case the past several days, the models are in
generally good agreement on the placement of the large scale
features, but how those translate to the surface is very much in
disagreement. Light steering level winds ultimately will make any
surface lows that form in the Gulf move very slowly. Thus, any
changes in the weather would be slow. Additional disagreements in
the models appear by Thursday regarding a front moving into the
western Bering and where any associated surface lows develop. In
addition, the models are having a difficult time deciding even by
this afternoon how quickly a stationary surface low south of
Seward begins to move eastward and how quickly any secondary lows
form. Confidence even with as early as today's forecast regarding
timing and location of snow and any associated wind shifts
remains unusually low for how short the time frame involved is.
Quieter weather returning Thursday and beyond to Southcentral will
help improve forecast confidence as concerns turn to gap winds and
how cold the temperatures get.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Scattered snow showers are producing brief periods of MVFR
conditions, but conditions are expected to steadily improve over
the next few hours as the snow tapers off. A few more snow showers
may get as close as the Hillside later today, but otherwise
offshore winds will dry out the area with predominately VFR
conditions expected for the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Anchorage International Airport tied its record consecutive days
with measurable snowfall this morning at 9 days. This is the first
time in the 21st century this has happened. Below are the other
streaks of 9 consecutive days of measurable snow and the total
snow that fell during those 9 days:

1) December 11-19, 2018: Total Snowfall: 21.7 inches
2) December 4-12, 1991: Total Snowfall: 13.0 inches
3) November 26- December 4, 1987: Total Snowfall: 19.3 inches
4) February 16-24, 1968: Total Snowfall: 23.4 inches
5) March 31- April 8, 1956: Total Snowfall: 10.6 inches

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low over the western Gulf will slowly slide
northeast today and weaken. The occluded front associated with
this low is currently draped across the north Gulf coast into the
Kenai Peninsula, and will also move north and weaken today. This
front will cross the Alaska range this afternoon. As a result of
this, snow showers will diminish across inland portions of the
area, ending for most areas in the interior this evening. Snow
and snow showers will linger through tonight into Thursday morning
along the north Gulf coast and Kenai Peninsula as another system
wraps around the upper low and sends some more moisture into
those locations. The upper low will move inland into the Copper
River Basin on Thursday, with dry and cold conditions expected
through Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Wednesday
through Saturday)...
Cold air continues for southwestern Alaska. Low level
northeasterly flow will keep the cold, dry air in place into the
weekend. Some areas of disorganized stratus continue pass through
the region, which will warm temperatures when they move over a
given location. Predicting exact movement of these cloud decks is
difficult, so have just gone with the coldest possible
temperatures at each location.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Wednesday through Saturday)...
The northerly flow pattern in the Bering Sea has finally ended.
A northwesterly push associated with a low moving over the eastern
Aleutians is subsiding. This low prompted a winter weather
advisory yesterday that was valid until midday today. However,
conditions have tapered off overnight, so cancelled the advisory
with this morning's forecast package. Expecting winds to continue
to diminish over the eastern Aleutians today, and that should be
the last of the northerly push.

The low that helped to end the great northerly push is currently
working its way through the western Aleutians. It is moving winds
ahead of it to a more southeasterly direction, which is providing
some warming along the island chain as well. It will move along
the southern side of the Aleutian Islands the next couple of days.
Warm air advection will make it as far north as the Pribilofs,
where rain will mix in with snow today and tomorrow. A weak low
spins up in the middle of the Bering tomorrow, with some gale
force winds on the north side of it. It is an interesting feature
that the models don't quite know what to do with yet, so will have
to keep an eye on it to see what happens.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Friday's setup is looking similar to the model forecasts
yesterday with a low south of the AKPEN moving into the southern
Gulf, bringing gusty offshore winds to the north Gulf coast and
favorably aligned terrain gaps through Saturday afternoon. A
trough rotating through the Gulf Saturday night and Sunday may
bring some precipitation to coastal areas then lift north on
Monday bringing a chance of snow to the Copper River Basin.

There is more confidence with a front moving over the western
Aleutians and Bering on Friday due to better model agreement
today. Strong winds will remain possible at times in the western
Bering through Sunday. A deep low on Sunday will move north over
the western and central Aleutians, which models have come in
better agreement on since yesterday. Better confidence in this low
brings increasing chances for gales over the Aleutians and Bering
through early next week. The exact intensity and placement of
this low has decent agreement, but is less certain as it moves
eastward through Tuesday. Stay tuned over the next few days as
this feature continues to be looked at.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 130
         Gales 131 132 150 155 172 174 178 185 352 412
         Heavy Freezing Spray 130 138 160 180 181 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...AH/JR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 19, 3:49 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC60 hr
Dec 19, 3:49 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Dec 19, 3:54 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC12 hr
Dec 19, 3:54 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC7 days
Dec 19, 11:37 PM AKSTWinter Storm WarningAFC10 hr
Dec 20, 3:25 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr
Dec 20, 4:01 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC35 hr
Dec 20, 4:01 AM AKSTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC12 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2018Every gale warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.