Gale Warning 820, NWS Anchorage, AK

488 
FZAK52 PAFC 250033
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-251330-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 mb low 380 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor Mon afternoon will 
move to 120 nm southeast of Sand Point at 992 mb by Tue afternoon
and then will weaken and dissipate by Tue night. A front 
approaches the western Aleutians by Tue morning. The associated 
976 mb low 450 nm southwest of Adak Tue afternoon will move to 
375 nm south of Adak at 986 mb by Wed afternoon.


$$

PKZ150-251330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt this evening. Seas 12 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-251330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 35 kt this evening. 
Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-251330-
Bristol Bay-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas in ice 
free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-251330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-251330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-251330-
Unalaska Bay-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
after midnight.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-251330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ173-251330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-251330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ175-251330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-251330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. 
Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ177-251330-
Adak to Kiska-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ178-251330-
Kiska to Attu-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ179-251330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-251330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-251330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas in ice free 
waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-251330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Sun Dec 23 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low which has been sitting south of Kodiak Island the past
couple days is now exiting off to the east (across the Gulf of
Alaska). Most of the remaining shower activity is over the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island. A few light showers can be found
over Southwest Alaska, but these are diminishing with time. Thus,
weather across most of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska is quiet.

Meanwhile, out west a weak low which had been in the vicinity
of the far western Aleutian Islands is dropping southward into
the North Pacific with just a few showers lingering across the
Aleutians and Bering Sea. To the south and east of this low, a
second deeper low (around 980 mb) along with its associated
frontal system and triple point low are lifting northward just
south of the central Aleutians. A jet streak and low level cold
air feeding into the back side of the trough is leading to
amplification of the flow across the north central Pacific. This
is a scenario which leads to development of multiple triple point
lows as the trough and frontal system progress eastward. For the
time being these systems are not really affecting the Aleutians,
but this will change over the next couple days as the flow
continues to amplify helping to bring systems further northward
toward the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

Lastly, high pressure over the eastern Bering Sea down to the
southern Alaska Peninsula is producing benign conditions across
this region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
With quiet conditions across most of the forecast area, there are
few model problems in the very short-term. Most of the focus is on
the amplifying trough and associated surface lows over the north
central Pacific. There is still a large spread in solutions for
location and track of triple point lows over the next couple days.
Despite these differences, there is better agreement on the
northern periphery of these systems, with the placement of the
frontal system as it approaches the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
Island Monday through Monday night and moves into the Gulf of
Alaska on Tuesday. Changes to the forecast will focus on the track
and strength of this frontal system. Significant changes to
development and tracks of surface lows could still change exactly
how the frontal system interacts with these areas, so overall
forecast confidence is average to below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for the early
portion of the TAF. An isolated area of fog has formed along the
Knik River across the Glenn Highway and into the northern tip of
Knik Arm. Conditions area favorable for this to expand overnight.
With a weak north wind in the low levels expect the fog will drift
south along Knik Arm. For now have included VCFG in the terminal
forecast, though there is a chance fog could actually affect the
airport. If so, would expect it after 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough in the northern Gulf will continue to drift slowly to
the northeast tonight, spreading a few scattered shower along the
coast east of Prince William Sound. Patchy fog may develop
tonight from along Cook Inlet and over the Copper River Basin as
an upper-level ridge remains in place, trapping some lingering low
level moisture. Otherwise, conditions will remain cold and dry
over the southcentral mainland. A second upper-level shortwave and
associated surface trough will lift north from the western Gulf
tomorrow bringing another round of scattered rain/snow showers
from north of Kodiak and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula north
across Prince William Sound. This trough is moving north in
advance of the next significant weather maker, a low south of the
AKPEN producing gales and sweeping an occluded front over the
western Gulf and across Kodiak Island beginning tomorrow night. By
Christmas Day, the front will begin to slow but still continue to
lift toward the northern Gulf with persistent gales and
widespread precipitation from Kodiak Island north along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Models are in better agreement with the
overall evolution of this system; however there is still some
discrepancy on how far north the front will advance and how much
warm air will advect in from the south. Current thinking is that
there will be enough warm air transition snow for the onset of the
event to at a mix of rain and snow along the immediate coast by
the late afternoon/evening, limiting snowfall amounts in place
like Seward and Whitter. The cross-barrier flow will limit
precipitation along the lee of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Satellite imagery depicts a subtle deformation zone aloft over
Southwest Alaska with continued lingering snow showers over parts
of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Otherwise, weak northerly
flow is keeping rather extensive sea stratus over the coast with
patchy areas of dense fog in Bristol Bay...which will continue
into tomorrow morning. Quiet weather continues through Monday
night before a front moves toward the Alaska Peninsula on
Christmas Day. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with how
far north precipitation moves north, but there will be increasing
threats for light snow through Christmas Day, especially across
Bristol Bay and into the higher local mountainous terrain north of
Dillingham.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure centered over the north Bering Sea will remain in
place as the storm track remains south of the Aleutian Chain. The
next gale force front will bring gale force winds to the Central
and Eastern Aleutians tonight through Monday with another gale
force front moving into the Western Aleutians Tuesday. Both of
these fronts will be rather moisture starved, so the main impact
will be gale force winds along the chain with a general N-NE flow
over the remainder of the Bering Sea through Christmas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period there are a series of lows at
the surface from SE Alaska to Kamchatka. At 00z Thursday, the
first surface low is over the eastern Gulf Of Alaska, the second
storm is southwest of Unalaska and the third low is over the Sea
of Okhotsk near Kamchatka. Additionally, at the surface there is a
dome of high pressure over Central and Eastern Siberia that is
beginning to nose its way into the western Bering. The GFS and
ECMWF both show this menagerie of wintry synoptic features.
However, even at the onset of the forecast period the precise
location of the surface low with each storm is slightly offset. As
time evolves and these storms progress eastward, and the model
divergence increases. High confidence that the southern tier of
Alaska will be in a wet pattern. But due to the variation in the
global models, there is a fair amount of uncertainty establishing
the start/stop times for the precipitation shields associated with
each cyclone in the long term forecast period. The biggest
forecast challenge will be determining whether these events will
be straight snow or a wintry mix or even rain.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 132 150 155 172-176.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PJS