Gale Warning 819, NWS Anchorage, AK

724 
FZAK51 PAFC 242358
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251300-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will move into the southwestern Gulf Mon night then it 
will move into the northern Gulf Tue morning. The front will then 
dissipate Wed morning.

$$

PKZ119-251300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251300-
Resurrection Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251300-
Prince William Sound-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251300-
Port Valdez-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251300-
Valdez Narrows-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251300-
Valdez Arm-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251300-
Passage Canal-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain with snow.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251300-
Barren Islands East-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251300-
Chiniak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251300-
Marmot Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251300-
Shelikof Strait-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. 
Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing spray
and patchy freezing fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-251300-
Kachemak Bay-
258 PM AKST Mon Dec 24 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

008 
FZAK51 PAFC 251200
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260100-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the southern Gulf will move into the northern Gulf Tue
afternoon, then it will move into the eastern Gulf Wed morning. A
989 mb North Pacific low will move to 70 nm southeast of Sitkinak
Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-260100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260100-
Resurrection Bay-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260100-
Prince William Sound-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260100-
Port Valdez-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260100-
Valdez Narrows-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260100-
Valdez Arm-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260100-
Passage Canal-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260100-
Barren Islands East-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. N
of Dangerous Cape, E wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 20 kt
in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260100-
Chiniak Bay-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260100-
Marmot Bay-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260100-
Shelikof Strait-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-260100-
Kachemak Bay-
300 AM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

288 
FZAK51 PAFC 260004
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261330-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the Gulf Tue afternoon will move into the eastern Gulf
by Tue evening. A 993 mb low 180 nm southeast of Sand Point Wed 
afternoon moves near Middleton Island at 994 mb by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261330-
Resurrection Bay-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261330-
Prince William Sound-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261330-
Port Valdez-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261330-
Valdez Narrows-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by late evening. Seas 3
ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261330-
Valdez Arm-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing 25 kt by late evening. Seas
building to 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261330-
Passage Canal-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261330-
Barren Islands East-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261330-
Chiniak Bay-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261330-
Marmot Bay-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261330-
Shelikof Strait-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray N of Anchor
Point. Snow showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-261330-
Kachemak Bay-
304 PM AKST Tue Dec 25 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

148 
FZAK51 PAFC 261215
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270045-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Low pressure in the northern Gulf will persist through Wed night.
A 992 mb North Pacific low will move to 110 nm southeast of
Sitkinak early Thu morning then it will move near Middleton Island 
at 987 mb Thu afternoon. The low will then move inland over Prince
William Sound Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-270045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 40 kt. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270045-
Resurrection Bay-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270045-
Prince William Sound-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270045-
Port Valdez-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270045-
Valdez Narrows-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow with rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270045-
Valdez Arm-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270045-
Passage Canal-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270045-
Barren Islands East-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270045-
Chiniak Bay-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270045-
Marmot Bay-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270045-
Shelikof Strait-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270045-
Kachemak Bay-
315 AM AKST Wed Dec 26 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Sun Dec 23 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low which has been sitting south of Kodiak Island the past
couple days is now exiting off to the east (across the Gulf of
Alaska). Most of the remaining shower activity is over the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island. A few light showers can be found
over Southwest Alaska, but these are diminishing with time. Thus,
weather across most of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska is quiet.

Meanwhile, out west a weak low which had been in the vicinity
of the far western Aleutian Islands is dropping southward into
the North Pacific with just a few showers lingering across the
Aleutians and Bering Sea. To the south and east of this low, a
second deeper low (around 980 mb) along with its associated
frontal system and triple point low are lifting northward just
south of the central Aleutians. A jet streak and low level cold
air feeding into the back side of the trough is leading to
amplification of the flow across the north central Pacific. This
is a scenario which leads to development of multiple triple point
lows as the trough and frontal system progress eastward. For the
time being these systems are not really affecting the Aleutians,
but this will change over the next couple days as the flow
continues to amplify helping to bring systems further northward
toward the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.

Lastly, high pressure over the eastern Bering Sea down to the
southern Alaska Peninsula is producing benign conditions across
this region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
With quiet conditions across most of the forecast area, there are
few model problems in the very short-term. Most of the focus is on
the amplifying trough and associated surface lows over the north
central Pacific. There is still a large spread in solutions for
location and track of triple point lows over the next couple days.
Despite these differences, there is better agreement on the
northern periphery of these systems, with the placement of the
frontal system as it approaches the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak
Island Monday through Monday night and moves into the Gulf of
Alaska on Tuesday. Changes to the forecast will focus on the track
and strength of this frontal system. Significant changes to
development and tracks of surface lows could still change exactly
how the frontal system interacts with these areas, so overall
forecast confidence is average to below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for the early
portion of the TAF. An isolated area of fog has formed along the
Knik River across the Glenn Highway and into the northern tip of
Knik Arm. Conditions area favorable for this to expand overnight.
With a weak north wind in the low levels expect the fog will drift
south along Knik Arm. For now have included VCFG in the terminal
forecast, though there is a chance fog could actually affect the
airport. If so, would expect it after 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough in the northern Gulf will continue to drift slowly to
the northeast tonight, spreading a few scattered shower along the
coast east of Prince William Sound. Patchy fog may develop
tonight from along Cook Inlet and over the Copper River Basin as
an upper-level ridge remains in place, trapping some lingering low
level moisture. Otherwise, conditions will remain cold and dry
over the southcentral mainland. A second upper-level shortwave and
associated surface trough will lift north from the western Gulf
tomorrow bringing another round of scattered rain/snow showers
from north of Kodiak and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula north
across Prince William Sound. This trough is moving north in
advance of the next significant weather maker, a low south of the
AKPEN producing gales and sweeping an occluded front over the
western Gulf and across Kodiak Island beginning tomorrow night. By
Christmas Day, the front will begin to slow but still continue to
lift toward the northern Gulf with persistent gales and
widespread precipitation from Kodiak Island north along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. Models are in better agreement with the
overall evolution of this system; however there is still some
discrepancy on how far north the front will advance and how much
warm air will advect in from the south. Current thinking is that
there will be enough warm air transition snow for the onset of the
event to at a mix of rain and snow along the immediate coast by
the late afternoon/evening, limiting snowfall amounts in place
like Seward and Whitter. The cross-barrier flow will limit
precipitation along the lee of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Satellite imagery depicts a subtle deformation zone aloft over
Southwest Alaska with continued lingering snow showers over parts
of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Otherwise, weak northerly
flow is keeping rather extensive sea stratus over the coast with
patchy areas of dense fog in Bristol Bay...which will continue
into tomorrow morning. Quiet weather continues through Monday
night before a front moves toward the Alaska Peninsula on
Christmas Day. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with how
far north precipitation moves north, but there will be increasing
threats for light snow through Christmas Day, especially across
Bristol Bay and into the higher local mountainous terrain north of
Dillingham.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure centered over the north Bering Sea will remain in
place as the storm track remains south of the Aleutian Chain. The
next gale force front will bring gale force winds to the Central
and Eastern Aleutians tonight through Monday with another gale
force front moving into the Western Aleutians Tuesday. Both of
these fronts will be rather moisture starved, so the main impact
will be gale force winds along the chain with a general N-NE flow
over the remainder of the Bering Sea through Christmas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period there are a series of lows at
the surface from SE Alaska to Kamchatka. At 00z Thursday, the
first surface low is over the eastern Gulf Of Alaska, the second
storm is southwest of Unalaska and the third low is over the Sea
of Okhotsk near Kamchatka. Additionally, at the surface there is a
dome of high pressure over Central and Eastern Siberia that is
beginning to nose its way into the western Bering. The GFS and
ECMWF both show this menagerie of wintry synoptic features.
However, even at the onset of the forecast period the precise
location of the surface low with each storm is slightly offset. As
time evolves and these storms progress eastward, and the model
divergence increases. High confidence that the southern tier of
Alaska will be in a wet pattern. But due to the variation in the
global models, there is a fair amount of uncertainty establishing
the start/stop times for the precipitation shields associated with
each cyclone in the long term forecast period. The biggest
forecast challenge will be determining whether these events will
be straight snow or a wintry mix or even rain.
&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 132 150 155 172-176.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...PJS