Gale Warning 772, NWS Anchorage, AK

597 
FZAK52 PAFC 050030
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051315-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 mb low 160 nm northeast of Adak will move to 160 nm south of 
Dutch Harbor at 991 mb Wed afternoon. The low will then move into the
southwestern Gulf Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-051315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 15 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051315-
Bristol Bay-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051315-
Unalaska Bay-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051315-
Adak to Kiska-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051315-
Kiska to Attu-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Snow showers and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
330 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 24 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.  Snow and rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A trough which brought rain to the Anchorage Bowl and advisory
level snows to the MAT-SU Valleys is heading quickly east and has
just about cleared the Copper River Basin this afternoon.
Abundant low level moisture left in the wake of this system
combined with subsidence lead to fairly extensive stratus and
patchy fog across the MAT-SU Valleys. A strong upper vortex was
located south of the central Aleutian Islands. At the surface a
couple of 980s mb low centers were located in the same general
area south of the ALeutians. The associated frontal trough wrapped
around the low complex south of the Aleutians, then extended
eastward to the eastern Aleutians. Very strong winds were evident
on the leading edge of the front with storm force winds reported.
Dutch harbor airport reported easterly peak winds of around 64
knots. Very strong northerly winds with were peaking around 58
knots near Shemya this afternoon. Widespread rain was located
along and in advance of the frontal system.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in fair synoptic agreement with the pressure fields
through Wednesday afternoon. The NAM QPF fields for the Susitna
Valley appear to be somewhat overdone for Tuesday. Model agreement
becomes very poor overall Wednesday night through Thursday as
they struggle with the timing of the next wave to head toward the
western Gulf. So for now will limit editing of grids during this
timeframe until better model agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally light surface winds are expected. However, a
strong southeasterly flow aloft will develop on Tuesday. This will
create low low wind shear in the vicinity of the airport complex.
Fog and stratus is possible tonight and Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A gale force warm front will rapidly advance towards Kodiak and
the North Gulf Coast tonight and Tuesday bringing coastal rain
with rain and spotty freezing rain to interior portions of
Southcentral. Before that, tonight will see only some high clouds,
so fog has already developed in favorable areas and may become
locally dense around Cook Inlet, the Copper Basin, the Susitna
Valley, and the Mat Valley as well as Valdez. This front will also
bring a chance of a wintry mix to interior locations with mix of
rain/freezing rain possible, although this system will have quite
a bit of downslope drying so interior precip amounts will be very
light. The front clears and weakens Tuesday night leaving only
some spotty coastal rain with some higher elevation coastal snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon night
through Tue night)...
A challenging forecast for both precipitation and wind is
expected through late Tuesday. The storm system along the Central
Aleutians slowly crawls eastward tonight, nudging the surface
front across the Alaska Peninsula this evening. Gusty gale force
winds and rain develop along the boundary. The front moves to
Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta coasts after midnight.
Precipitation types are expected to change over to rain across
Bristol Bay; however, pockets of freezing rain are possible as an
off shore flow re-enforces a shallow cold pool at the surface.
Areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast will experience mostly snow
as the front aloft moves ahead slightly faster.

Early Tuesday morning, the front picks up speed moving north and
east as upper level waves propagate ahead of the main low. This
brings increasing chances for freezing rain during the day Tuesday,
as freezing surface temperatures climb later during the afternoon.
Issued a Freezing rain advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley with blowing snow expected along Delta. There will be some
limitations for precipitation accumulation/ice accumulation
amounts, with downsloping easterly winds quite strong with this
front. Gusty flow tapers off late Tuesday, with easterly flow
backing to the south. Showery conditions are expected on Wednesday
as upper level waves continue to ride north ahead of the parent low
over the Aleutian Chain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon night
through Tue night)...

An unsettled pattern continues across the Bering through Wednesday
as low pressure across the Central Aleutians slowly tracks east.
The occluded frontal boundary pushes north through the northern
waters by early Tuesday with the center of low tracking to the
eastern Chain on Wednesday. The center weakens and fills to 985 mb
on Wednesday with precipitation becoming less organized in response.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Thursday through Monday)

A high degree of uncertainty will make for an interesting forecast
for the end of the week and into early next week. The models are
in very poor agreement (to put it mildly) with regard to a Bering
Straight trough that tries to dig down into the eastern Bering
and Southcentral, but gets deflected to our north due to a series
of vort maxes on the backside of a full latitude trough that
stretches from the Bering Straight south through the central
Aleutians and into the Pacific. As these pieces of energy round
the base of said through, cyclogenesis commences as they initially
head north before curving northwest into the Prince William Sound
region. Added to the mix will be a deep tropical connection with
the Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) from the GFS model
showing values some 400 to 600 percent above normal.

However, the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian Global height fields and surfaces
pressures are all over the place, making the spaghetti plot truly
look like spaghetti. About the only thing they do agree on is the
colder air associated with the disturbance near the Bering
Straight will shift eastward across the northern half of the
state. So in short it looks like an active and wet period, but the
details are murky due to model disagreement and inconsistency
being far below normal.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155, 161.
MARINE...Gale 130-132 138 139 150-170 172-178 181 185.
		 Storm 179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD