Gale Warning 767, NWS Anchorage, AK

712 
FZAK51 PAFC 040046
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041330-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front enters the Western Gulf Mon night and pushes towards the 
North Gulf Coast and Southeast Alaska through Wed afternoon. A 1019 
mb low 40 nm Southeast of Middleton Island forms along the front Tue 
night and moves to 115 nm Southwest of Yakutat at 1015 mb by Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-041330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041330-
Resurrection Bay-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt during the evening. Seas 2 
ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041330-
Prince William Sound-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041330-
Port Valdez-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041330-
Valdez Narrows-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041330-
Valdez Arm-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041330-
Passage Canal-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041330-
Barren Islands East-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 35 kt diminishing
to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft except 13 ft N of Dangerous
Cape.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041330-
Chiniak Bay-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041330-
Marmot Bay-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041330-
Shelikof Strait-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041330-
Kachemak Bay-
346 PM AKST Mon Dec 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

278 
FZAK51 PAFC 041253
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-050200-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves into the northern Gulf coast through Tue night. A
second front moves into the western Gulf Wed morning. The
associated 989 mb low moves to 250 nm southeast of Sand Point by 
Thu morning.

$$

PKZ119-050200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt diminishing to
20 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt becoming
SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-050200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-050200-
Resurrection Bay-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-050200-
Prince William Sound-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-050200-
Port Valdez-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-050200-
Valdez Narrows-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-050200-
Valdez Arm-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-050200-
Passage Canal-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-050200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-050200-
Barren Islands East-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-050200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, S wind 35 kt
diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft except 13 ft N of Dangerous
Cape.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-050200-
Chiniak Bay-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-050200-
Marmot Bay-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-050200-
Shelikof Strait-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-050200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-050200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-050200-
Kachemak Bay-
353 AM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

555 
FZAK51 PAFC 050045
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-051345-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the northern Gulf will move into the northeastern Gulf
Wed morning. A second front will move into the western Gulf Tue
night then it will weaken Thu morning. A North Pacific low will
move into the southwestern Gulf Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-051345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt except E 30 kt near the coast. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-051345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-051345-
Resurrection Bay-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-051345-
Prince William Sound-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-051345-
Port Valdez-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and
rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-051345-
Valdez Narrows-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-051345-
Valdez Arm-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-051345-
Passage Canal-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-051345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-051345-
Barren Islands East-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-051345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft except 13 ft N of Dangerous
Cape.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-051345-
Chiniak Bay-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-051345-
Marmot Bay-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-051345-
Shelikof Strait-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-051345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt except SE 30 kt S of Anchor Point. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-051345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-051345-
Kachemak Bay-
345 PM AKST Tue Dec 4 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKST Sun Dec 2 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Highly amplified dynamic flow dominates the upper levels across
most of the Alaska region and North Pacific. A compact surface
low is retreating northward along the western Alaska coast. Strong
pressure rises on the back side of the low are contributing to
gusty southerly winds and blowing snow across portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta despite some fairly warm temperatures (low to mid
30s). In any case, snow is tapering to scattered snow showers
behind the low.

As the upper level wave associated with this low exits northward,
a separate wave crossing the Bering Sea is dropping into the back
side of the trough and in the process of phasing with the primary
trough, which extends southward to the Alaska Peninsula and into
the Pacific. A jet streak just ahead of the trough is oriented
from south to north across the western Gulf and up to Cook Inlet
and the Susitna Valley. Water vapor imagery shows moisture
streaming northward from the Pacific toward Southcentral. Beneath
this, a nearly stationary surface front sits over the western
Gulf. This sets the stage for development of a north-south
oriented band of precipitation through this region as the
strengthening upper trough approaches from the west this
afternoon. One last important player in this unfolding event is
temperatures. Marginally warmer air is advecting northward from
the Gulf into Southcentral. Low level southeast winds across the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains are also leading to locally warmer air
in the lee of the mountains. Thus, the airmass is warm enough to
produce mainly rain from the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the
Matanuska Valley. The wind forecast will be key to the temperature
and precipitation type for later today.

Meanwhile, a very large deep low over the North Pacific is lifting
northward toward the Aleutians and Bering Sea. A ship ob from this
morning indicates hurricane force winds in the cold sector of this
low (west of low center). Satellite-based wind estimates indicate
storm force winds along the occluded front approaching the
Aleutian chain. Winds are rapidly increasing along the central
Aleutians from Atka to Adak wit rain overspreading the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model guidance is struggling with the details of the unfolding
snow event over Southcentral Alaska. In particular, there is poor
run-to-run consistency of the placement and orientation of the
upper trough which affects the location of surface frontal band of
heavier precipitation along with the strength of winds across the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains and resultant air temperatures. These
differences have huge ramifications on the snow forecast for
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Will closely monitor trends
this afternoon to see which solution might be most accurate.

Models have a better handle on the large system out west as it
tracks into the Bering and as occluded front spreads north and
east to Southwest Alaska Monday night and Tuesday. Overall
forecast confidence is higher and only minor changes have been
made to the existing forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...This forecast is quite challenging with uncertainty in
transition from rain to snow. However, no matter the exact
timing, expect a period of IFR conditions once precipitation does
change to snow. Low clouds will likely linger after snow ends
tomorrow morning, but it looks like enough low level flow will
develop by midday to help erode any existing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Tricky precipitation type forecast on deck tonight. The Kenai
RADAR is beginning to fill in over the western Peninsula despite
the southeasterly winds across Anchorage. The Turnagain winds
currently have warmed temperatures in the mid 40's across the
Bowl, which will have implication on the precipitation type
tonight. As the upper trough approaches, expect precipitation to
begin as rain (we've already had some this afternoon) this
evening. However, the winds should subside later this evening. The
diminishing winds and precipitation intensity from the incoming
trough/cold advection should lead to a quick changeover to snow
before midnight. The heaviest snow should be between midnight and
3am when the coldest air arrives and upper trough passes overhead.
Given the warm starting temperatures, the snow should be heavy
and high moisture. Snow will taper off quickly in the early
morning, ending from Anchorage through the Susitna Valley by 6am.

Cordova remains warm enough for rain and will stay that way
through the event. Valdez should remain in the cold air for the
majority of the time. Once the surface low passes into the Copper
River Basin tomorrow morning, a brief period of southwesterly
winds could bring a surge of warm air up into Port Valdez and
change snow to rain before precipitation ends. The Copper River
Basin will remain dry through the early morning hours, but will
see snow start by mid-morning with several inches of accumulation.

Beyond tomorrow, a strong frontal boundary approaches on Tuesday.
There isn't a huge slug of warm air with the front, but deep layer
southeasterly flow should keep the lee side of the Chugach dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Snow showers are possible through late tonight, along with rain
during the evening, as upper level short waves move overhead from
a parent low over the Bering Strait. The trough exits the area
across the Central Interior by Monday morning. Only minor
accumulations are expected tonight; however snow amounts up to 5
inches are likely along the Western Alaska Range. A ridge builds
across the southwest as the low exits the region overnight, so
included a mention for patchy fog tonight.

The next front entering the the southwest late Monday night will
be the biggest forecast challenge through Wednesday as winds are
expected to increase rapidly as the boundary moves across through
Tuesday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected along the
mountain Ranges of Bristol Bay with gusts between 50 to 70 mph
anticipated. Mixed precipitation is expected along the boundary as
it pulls through. Strong downsloping winds limits precipitation
during this event across the Southwest.

There is still a bit of uncertainty on the evolution of this
storm. Details on moisture/temperature profiles and differences
in timing of the shortwaves will be monitored closely through this
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
The storm system approaching the Central Aleutians this evening
brings Storm force winds across much of the marines along the
chain through Monday. Hurricane force winds were added for the
Western Aleutians marine forecast as the occluded front moves over
the chain. The peak time frame for winds will be a relatively
long duration as the stacked system stalls through Tuesday.
Tuesday night through Wednesday this system begins to fill on a
crawling eastward track. Strong waves of energy around this storm
will bring re-enforcing gusty winds through Wednesday.
Precipitation with this system will primarily be rain along the
southern Bering with mixed precipitation along the north and
western waters as cooler temperatures wrap along the core of the
low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Beginning Wednesday evening, there will be an active weather
pattern in place as a very deep longwave trough sets up over the
Bering Sea and Pacific, extending to around 30N. The main moisture
stream will be directed at southern Alaska, with a continued warm
pattern in place as 850 temps will be around -1 to -3C, albeit
cold enough for some snow in parts of the interior such as the
northern Susitna Valley and the Kuskokwim Valley. Sometime
Thursday, all the global numerical models are strongly hinting at
a basal shortwave moving north toward the Gulf of Alaska, rapidly
deepening as it does so. Currently this low looks to be a strong
gale force and potentially low end storm force along the barrier
jet, but it will also be bringing another slug of warmer Pacific
air, enhanced by the above average SSTs. With that said, Thursday
and into Friday look warmer and wet, especially along the coast.
Heading into the weekend, the longwave trough slowly shifts east
so wetter weather will also shift east, and slightly cooler air
will filter into the mainland. Much uncertainty develops by
Saturday as the ECMWF disagrees with the colder Canadian GDPS and
18z GFS. With that said, ensembles do agree more in general that a
split trough may develop, allowing for arctic air to seep south
and interact with the warm moist Pacific air. Should this happen
increased snow threats will be possible. Stay tuned...

Over the Bering Sea, with the broad cyclonic flow associated with
the aforementioned trough moving east, expect northerly flow to
last through Saturday before a series of fronts and/or a stronger
low moves in Sunday as the next trough shifts east.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory (Snow) 101 111 145.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 178. Storm Warning 150 160
165 170>177 179 180 185. Gale Warning 130 132 138 155 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA