Gale Warning 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

105 
FZAK62 PAFC 110027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-111400-
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 mb low at 58N 160W will move inland Mon night. The 
associated front over the eastern Aleutians will dissipate Tue 
morning. Low pressure will move over the western Aleutians Tue 
morning and persist through Wed. 

$$

PKZ411-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray north of
56N.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray north
of 56N.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-111400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 25 kt. NW wind 35 kt east of 168W. Seas 10 
to 17 ft. Freezing spray north of 56N.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray from the
Pribilofs N.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray north of 56N.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

168 
FZAK62 PAFC 111236
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120145-
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb low forms at 63N 166W Tue afternoon and moves to 61N 163W 
at 983 mb by Thu morning. Its front moves over the eastern Bering 
through Thu morning. A front approaches the Western Aleutians for 
Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray N of 55N.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.WED...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray N of 55N.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of 55N in
the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 AM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming W 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

317 
FZAK62 PAFC 120053
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121415-
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A series of weak lows will move along the western Aleutians
through Thu morning. A 982 mb low coming from the Norton Sound 
will move to 62N 166W Wed afternoon then it will move to 59N 163W 
at 990 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Freezing spray north
of 56N.
.WED...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray north of
56N.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 PM AKST Tue Dec 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming W 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray north of 56N.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray north of
56N.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray
north of 56N.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

787 
FZAK62 PAFC 121251
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130200-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 981 mb low at 63N 165W moves to 58N 160W at 987 mb Fri morning. A 
front moves near the Central Aleutians through Thu night.

$$

PKZ411-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray N of 55N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 AM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

178 
FZAK62 PAFC 130043
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-131445-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 mb low at 62N 166W will move near 58N 167W at 988 mb early
Fri morning. A 969 mb Kamchatka low will move to 47N 175E Thu
morning then it will move near 49N 165W at 954 mb Fri morning. The
low will then move into the North Pacific Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-131445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...NW becoming NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-131445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-131445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray north of 55N.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-131445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKST Wed Dec 12 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level trough is currently encompassing the Bering
Sea. Just south of this trough, a jet streak with max values near
170 knots is generating a wide swath of zonal flow at the upper
levels across the North Pacific. Over the last few days, this
North Pacific jet has generated multiple lows along the left exit
region, leaving a trail of cyclonic flow over the central
Aleutians.

At the surface, cold air advection persists across Southcentral
ahead of an inbound warm occluded front currently draped across
the AKPEN. This front is associated with a 964 mb parent low
centered near Saint Paul Island. In response, snow showers are
observed on radar this afternoon across the northern AKPEN while a
few residual showers are also spreading in along the north Gulf
coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement on the synoptic
pattern. However, there are some differences in the timing and
strength of various individual features. This lowers the
confidence mainly for precipitation probabilities, where
widespread "chance" Pops are common over the southern mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue. Some showers
are possible beginning around noon Monday, but probabilities are
low enough that VCSH was used.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Long story short, a wintery pattern is in store for Alaska as we
finally have driven the Pacific jet stream to the south, allowing
for colder moderated arctic air to infiltrate Southcentral. A
series of fronts and lows will move up along the coast beginning
tonight, with each low bringing coastal rain and snow and
increasing inland snow threats. The first gale force front tonight
will move along the coast then stall, with gale force winds moving
into Prince William Sound. There will be a few isolated snow
showers that will move inland, but most of the interior will
remain downsloped.

The next low will move toward the coast Monday night and Tuesday
and eventually move toward the vicinity or inside of Prince
William Sound. There is a lot of uncertainty at this juncture,
with Gulf moisture in place, cold air infiltrating across the
Alaska Range in conjunction with an arctic trough, and low level
instability, this pattern will become increasingly favorable for
snow threats inland. These chances increase Tuesday and will
continue through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
night through Wednesday)...
The warm front associated with the elongated low in the Bering
Sea is now pushing inland. As expected, it is weakening as it
goes. It is producing some areas of light snow, mainly along the
coast. Dillingham and King Salmon are seeing the "heaviest" snow
out of this system, though RADAR and surface observations show
even this snow is still light.

The current low supporting this weak front moves southeast
tonight, causing this front to really fall apart. However, models
have honed in on a second low spinning up and heading into Bristol
Bay early tomorrow morning. Both the GFS and the NAM are in
agreement on this compact feature, so decided to put it in the
forecast. There is a second push of snow forecasted to move
through zone 161, which right now looks like it will provide up to
another 3 inches of snow along the coast. Up to 5 inches are
possible in the Kuskokwim Mountains due to enhanced lift there.

After this second push, the broad low supporting these smaller
systems will move east Tuesday morning to be located over Southcentral
AK. This will induce northwesterly flow over southwest AK and
establish a cooling trend through the middle of this week.
Temperatures will actually get legitimately cold, with lows below
zero inland and in the single digits along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Sunday
night through Wednesday)...
The low in the Bering that has been the subject of much discussion
is still slowly working its way east, with its elongated warm
front now pushing into southwest AK. GOES satellite imagery shows
that several smaller circulations within this low have indeed
spun up, as models indicated. There are at least four different
smaller low centers currently viewable on satellite. These small
lows are creating a forecast challenge to predict specific
locations and timing of precipitation. Areas of heavier snow
showers are embedded within this system, reducing visibility when
they do strike a location with an observation site. This is making
our TAFs a challenge in the Bering today.

This low will continue to push east through Tuesday, with smaller
circulations continuing to spin within it. Right now models are
locking onto these smaller lows about a day out it seems, so there
is some predictability of areas of enhanced precipitation. Wide
spread areas of gale force winds are also still present with this
low and will continue to be present as the low pushes east, which
is a bit stronger than initially expected. The low completely
exits Tuesday morning, with northwest flow and high pressure
building in behind it. This will creating a cool trend with likely
some convective snow showers in the Bering later this week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The general trends for the long range forecast is for the most active
weather to continue across area waters with temperatures trending
colder Wednesday night through the weekend. A long wave trough
Wednesday night is projected to have a parent low just south of
the Bering Strait and another low over the southeastern Gulf of
Alaska. Models are generally in good agreement with the closed
center over the Bering Strait remaining the dominant system. They
are struggling with the northward progression and organization of
the Gulf and system and the progressive wave pattern over the
Bering. The main changes for the long range forecast were to
decrease precipitation chances across the southern mainland and to
cool temperatures through the second half of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165 179
				 180.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray...185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
LONG TERM...KH