Gale Warning 737, NWS Anchorage, AK

550 
FZAK62 PAFC 080037
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081430-
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the eastern Aleutians will dissipate Sat afternoon. A
972 mb Kamchatka low will move to 52N 170E Sat morning then it will
move to 57N 171W at 966 mb Sun morning. The low will remain 
nearly stationary through Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-081430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft building to 11
to 19 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKST Fri Dec 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

361 
FZAK62 PAFC 081305
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090230-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Aleutians will dissipate Sat afternoon. A
second front approaches the western Aleutians Sat morning. The
associated low moves over the central Aleutians with multiple
centers around 970 mb by Sun morning and then moves to 56N 166W at
968 mb by Mon morning.  

$$

PKZ411-090230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft building to 11 to 19
ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 12 to
20 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
405 AM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

708 
FZAK62 PAFC 090051
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091345-
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 mb low at 54N 175E moves to 54N 178W at 967 mb Sun afternoon
and then moves into the Gulf Mon afternoon at 964 mb. The
associated front currently over the central Aleutians reaches the
eastern Bering Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ411-091345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Freezing spray north of 56N.
.MON...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Freezing spray
north of 56N.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 
21 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKST Sat Dec 8 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. NE wind 20 to 30 kt N of the Pribilofs. 
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

751 
FZAK62 PAFC 091312
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100215-
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 53N 175E moves to 51N 177W at 984 mb and dissipates
Mon morning. Its front extends over the southern Bering to the 
Alaska Peninsula. A 976 mb low at 53N 166W moves to 58N 161W at 961 
mb Mon morning then moves inland to 58N 156W at 970 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Freezing spray N of
55N.
.MON...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning N of 55N.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
412 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 to
15 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N
in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

671 
FZAK62 PAFC 100056
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-101400-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 53N 175E moves to 51N 177W at 984 mb and dissipates
Mon morning. Its front extends over the southern Bering to the 
Alaska Peninsula. A 976 mb low at 53N 166W moves to 58N 161W at 961 
mb Mon morning then moves inland to 58N 156W at 970 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Freezing spray N of
55N.
.MON...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning N of 55N.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-101400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 9 to
15 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N
in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

563 
FZAK62 PAFC 101318
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-110230-
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low at 55N 168W dissipates into a trough today. A 963 mb 
low near 58N 161W moves inland at 59N 158W Mon night. A series of 
lows track over the Aleutians through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-110230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning N of 55N.
.TONIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of 55N.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-110230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-110230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-110230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
418 AM AKST Mon Dec 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 PM AKST Thu Dec 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked, negatively tilted low is sitting at the
base of a broad trough that encompasses the Bering and Aleutians.
This low has been the weather driver for most of the state and
continues to do so. The jet stream is in more of a meridional
pattern with a jet streak flowing just below the western Aleutians
reaching speeds of 170 kts at 300 mb. The jet is driving this
upper level low southeastward into the North Pacific. A second jet
streak, albeit weaker, is over the central Gulf. This jet is
driving southerly flow through the Gulf and is bringing ample
moisture to Southcentral and southern mainland Alaska. Coupled
with the jet is a strong band of increased vorticity at 500 mb. At
the surface, a low pressure system rotates just south of Kodiak
Island. This low is enhancing the southerly flow and intensifying
the pressure gradient throughout the Gulf, which is setting the
stage for quick northerly progression of the low and strong winds.
The influx of moisture, both at the upper and low levels, is
covering much of mainland Alaska in stratus. The AK- PEN and north
Gulf Coast are seeing most of the precipitation which can be seen
on radar.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to struggle with the next batch of systems. In
general, models are consistent through Friday morning but quickly
diverge as the NAM moves the low in the western Gulf northward
faster than the EC, GFS and Canadian. As this initial low travels,
a second gale force low develops on the leeward side Friday
morning in the southern Gulf. This low is not well handled by the
models. As this low moves northward, the GFS and Canadian are
similar tracking the low through the eastern Gulf then into
Southcentral on Saturday morning. The GFS is the most robust of
the solutions bringing widespread stronger winds into the northern
Gulf. In opposition, the NAM and EC are in decent agreement and
push the low into the western Gulf at a much faster pace on Fri
night and remain weaker. As the next low enters the southern Gulf
Saturday afternoon, there is a lot of disagreement between models.
They are all over the place with the EC being the fastest and the
NAM becoming the slowest solution.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...After a period of MVFR and even some IFR conditions in
mixed precipitation later this afternoon and early evening, VFR
conditions should prevail through tomorrow. Some ceilings in the
3500 to 5000 ft range may occur with precipitation overnight.
Precipitation type will be a challenge and will consist of it
switching between snow and rain and freezing rain before settling
on rain Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Another day, another low moving into Southcentral from the warm
North Pacific. It seems we are dealing with weather for October,
not December, but here we are. Another Pacific front is spreading
mixed precipitation across parts of interior, including sleet and
freezing rain across the Glenn Highway corridor. For this reason,
decided to issue a freezing rain advisory for the Anchorage Bowl
northward to the Matanuska Valley. Snow will shift north into the
Susitna Valley late this evening and overnight with accumulations
of 1-3 inches, higher amounts closer to the Alaska Range.

Later tonight into tomorrow, another strong gale force to storm
force front will move up along the North Gulf Coast, switching the
flow aloft more easterly which will likely dry most inland areas
out with heaviest precip along the coast and the coastal ranges.
The storm force front moves inland Friday night with another near
storm force low moving along the coast Saturday evening and Sunday
morning. Here the forecast gets real tricky as some models show a
deformation band forming in cold air over parts of the interior
with snow accumulations. For now, took a very conservative
approach with light accumulations possible as it is more likely
the warm air moves in and the deformation band likely shifts west
over Cook Inlet before the trough shifts east again. We shall
see...stay tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Tonight through Friday a mix of precipitation will continue to
develop across the Southwest mainland between low pressure systems
over the Gulf and Bering Strait. The northern low picks up
momentum on Friday pushing a cold front to the west coast in the
morning which advects eastward through the day. This front
interacts with an occluded system which pushes westward across
Bristol Bay during the afternoon. A deformation zone sets up
between the two systems with moderate to heavy snow expected to
occur across the eastern areas of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim
Valley through Saturday morning. A winter weather advisory for
snow was issued with the afternoon forecast package to highlight
this event Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with snow
totals 4 to 6 inches expected with localized amounts up to 10
inches.

Snow tapers off Saturday with showers remaining in the forecast as
low pressure spins along the Yukon Delta. The next front to
monitor is a fast paced system from the Bering expected to push to
the coast Sunday morning bringing increased snow chances for the
start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Storm force westerly winds along the Pacific side of the Central
Aleutians taper down late tonight. The next focus for active
weather surrounds a low currently developing just south of the
Bering Strait. This system itself will be relatively slow moving,
however it is expected to increase winds to gusty gale force with
higher gusts. Freezing spray will be an issue across the northern
waters through the weekend. Winds begin to impact the northern
Bering tonight with the surface front diving south to the Alaska
Peninsula Friday morning. Gusty winds across the eastern half of
the Bering taper down Saturday afternoon as the next strong front
pushes quickly across from the North Pacific. This front pushes to
the Western Aleutians late Friday night with the frontal boundary
moving across to the central Bering Saturday night. Snow may
develop along the boundary initially, but quickly changes over to
rain with this warm core system. The one exception to this will be
over the Pribilof Islands where the elongating boundary may allow
colder temperatures to slowly erode, so added a mention of
blowing snow for this area Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
A very active pattern will continue through the week, with
forecast confidence growing as model continuity continues to
improve. Monday will feature a rapidly deepening low which
undergoes bombogenesis (defined as a rapidly deepening cyclone
with a pressure decrease of 24 mb in 24 hours), as its pressure
lowers from 970 mb southeast of Sand Point late Monday morning, to
947 mb south of Seward by early Tuesday morning. This storm will
also draw up tropical moisture, with current water vapor values
forecast to be 300 to 400 percent above normal. Thus, some of the
precipitation will probably be of a moderate to heavy intensity at
times. Another important aspect associated with this system is
wind speeds, with current indications suggesting some hurricane
force winds possible for the coastal waters, as a strong barrier
jet develops.

Next in the active pattern will be another area of low pressure
that will track along or just south of the Aleutians in the Monday
through Tuesday time frame, This system will also undergo
bombogenesis, as mid-level energy drives into the backside of a
central Bering trough, with current indications showing this low
dropping from the around 983 mb to 949 mb (34 mb drop in 24 hours)
as it moves to just east of Kodiak Island by Wednesday morning.
This storm will also tap the subtropics with a similar moisture
feed in terms of percentage above normal. Similar to its
predecessor, warm air will be pumped north with very strong winds,
especially for the marine waters. This storm will weaken as it
fills across the northern Gulf, with yet another rapidly deepening
and moisture-laden storm moving into the west central Aleutians
on Thursday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 177.
 Gale Warning 120 125 130>132 138 139 150 155 160 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD