Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 651, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 27, 2018, 3:51 AM AKST. It was in force for 60 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 27, 2018, 3:51 AM AKST (12:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 29, 2018, 3:45 PM AKST
- In force
- 60 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
828 FZAK62 PAFC 271251 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-280200- 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the eastern Bering moves inland Tue evening. A 995 mb Kamchatka low at 53N 168E moves to 53N 176W at 993 mb Tue afternoon. The low then moves to 53N 161W at 993 mb Wed morning and then moves into the Gulf. A front associated with a second 972 mb Kamchatka low moves into the western Bering Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ411-280200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and widespread snow showers. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ412-280200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 .TODAY...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ413-280200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W wind up to 20 kt becoming NE 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-280200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 351 AM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 .TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$
5 follow-up statements
729 FZAK62 PAFC 280039 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-281430- 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 995 mb low at 54N 177W moves into the North Pacific Thu morning. A front moves over the Western Aleutians Wed morning, then moves into the eastern Bering by Thu afternoon. $$ PKZ411-281430- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow and rain. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ412-281430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. .SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. $$ PKZ413-281430- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. $$ PKZ414-281430- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 339 PM AKST Tue Nov 27 2018 .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$
174 FZAK62 PAFC 281257 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-290215- 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 990 mb low over Dutch Harbor moves into the Gulf at 996 mb Wed night. A front associated with a 973 mb Kamchatka low enters the western Bering Wed afternoon and reaches the eastern Bering Thu afternoon. The low becomes complex and moves to 57N 172E at 977 mb Thu night. $$ PKZ411-290215- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. $$ PKZ412-290215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ413-290215- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... .TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ414-290215- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 357 AM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$
741 FZAK62 PAFC 290052 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-291415- 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 993 mb low at 56N 160W will move into the North Pacific Thu morning. A front over the central Aleutians will move into the eastern Bering Thu then persist over the eastern Aleutians through Fri. A 989 mb low develops at 53N 172W Fri morning then it will move to 56N 168W Fri afternoon. $$ PKZ411-291415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Snow and rain showers. .THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ412-291415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. .MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ413-291415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow. .THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-291415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 352 PM AKST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers. .THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. $$
408 FZAK62 PAFC 291301 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-300145- 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front associated with a 979 mb Kamchatka low moves from the central Bering to the eastern Bering Thu evening. A 990 mb North Pacific low moves to 54N 170W Fri afternoon at 981 mb and then moves to 59N 164W at 977 mb Fri night. A second North Pacific low moves to 50N 175W at 982 mb Fri night. $$ PKZ411-300145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ412-300145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ413-300145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 15 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. $$ PKZ414-300145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 401 AM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$
681 FZAK62 PAFC 300045 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-301415- 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A front over the central and eastern Aleutians will persist through Sat night. A 981 mb low will move to 53N 173W Fri morning then it will move near 61N 171W at 967 mb Fri night. A 989 mb North Pacific low will move to 53N 167W at 989 mb Sat afternoon. $$ PKZ411-301415- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ412-301415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ413-301415- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .SAT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .MON...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. $$ PKZ414-301415- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 345 PM AKST Thu Nov 29 2018 ...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain. .SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 26, 4:58 PM AKST, 10 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 26, 4:58 PM AKST, 10 hours 53 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 458 PM AKST Mon Nov 26 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The upper level pattern has a trough stretching from the Gulf of Anadyr in Russia to near Kodiak Island. Upper level ridging extends out of Canada and over the Brooks Range bringing pronounced south-to-southeasterly flow aloft over most of the mainland of the state. At the surface a strong low is centered just south of Kodiak Island with a secondary low moving across Prince William Sound. This secondary low is where the core of the warm sector is and why most precipitation at lower elevations has been rain (or freezing rain) over Southcentral Alaska. Southwest mainland Alaska is in colder air which is keeping most of that area in snow for the precipitation type. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models seem to be in good synoptic agreement for the next few days. As noted in the previous discussion, model consistency continues to be a concern. This becomes significant late in the week as the GFS and EC have both jumped to a solution where some of the remnants of a tropical storm currently south of Japan intensifies in the Bering Sea Friday or this weekend. This may become the big weather-maker for the upcoming weekend, but will have to wait and see if further model runs continue with this solution or back-off. && .AVIATION... PANC...Rain should taper off this evening, but without much clearing in the clouds, fog or stratus is not expected. However, it will be worth watching overnight into tomorrow morning as there is always the possibility of fog after the rainfall. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A potent shortwave trough has moved inland around Prince William Sound this evening and will rapidly weaken. Rain associated with this low will become more intermittent and showery with steady rain largely ending for most interior locations. Rain will continue along the coast, however as onshore flow will remain strong. Temperatures will have a tough time dropping tonight with extensive clouds, so rain should remain as rain for low elevation areas so no freezing rain is anticipated. Showers will end from Anchorage north Tuesday as another low near Kodiak drifts north into Cook Inlet. As it moves north quite a bit colder air moves into the region from the south. Expecting that strong SW winds will move up Kachemak Bay with the possibility of heavy snow squalls, then that activity shifts north into Anchorage Wed and Wed night, bringing an increasing chance for accumulating snow showers and much cooler air. This forecast is highly uncertain by that point, however, given the nature of the trough and the overall timing of when the cold front arrives. By Wednesday night much colder air envelopes the region so expect more widespread below freezing temps. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday)... A stationary front currently along the coast is expected to persist tonight into the day Tuesday. As an area of low pressure out over the Gulf approaches Southwest Alaska late tonight into Tuesday morning, snow along the front will increase in coverage. Since most of the moisture with the low will remain on the east side of the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges, the front will likely cause a prolonged period of light snow starting late tonight along the coast of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta. The front will then gradually drift northeastward into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley by Tuesday evening. The Gulf low will make its closest approach to Southwest Alaska Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will be the period when the heaviest snowfall rates are expected along the front across interior portions of Bristol Bay and much of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Total snowfall amounts are likely to be in the 4 to 8 inch range before the snowfall ends on Wednesday. Snowfall rates should be low enough that only isolated areas in the mountains are able to get accumulations quick enough to reach advisory criteria. Additional increase in the expected precipitation rates with future model runs may require an advisory issuance. Once the front moves northeast, areas behind the front will see a colder air mass move into Southwest Alaska, which in turn will keep conditions quite seasonable across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, a strong front will approach the Kuskokwim Delta coastline, resulting in an increase in clouds and potentially more snow by Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Thursday )... Strong north winds moving south along with a seasonably cold air mass are producing widespread showers across the eastern half of the Bering this evening. The shower activity will slowly move off to the east as a low now approaching the western Aleutians races eastward along the chain on Tuesday. The low will be quite compact, so the main impacts will be along the chain with mixed rain and snow and a brief period of strong winds behind the low as the winds race through the gaps between the islands. The low will intensify as it moves south of Sand Point on Wednesday, then approaches the southern end of Kodiak Island by Thursday. A much stronger and larger front will move into the western Aleutians on Wednesday morning. The front will move across the entire Bering, reaching the central Bering and the Pribilof Islands on Thursday morning, then move into Southwest Alaska and the eastern Aleutians by Thursday evening. The front will bring a somewhat warmer air mass back to the Bering, but the greatest threat of rain will be along the Aleutians, with most locations further north staying all snow. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday Nov 30th through Monday Dec 3rd)... The forecast period commences with a longwave trough across the Western Bering and portions of the North Pacific with a ridge axis over the AKPEN and the Eastern Aleutians. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the upper level trough. At the onset of the forecast period, the models have a surface low near Kamchatka, a low near Amchitka and one in the Gulf Of Alaska. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, NAM and ECMWF have these surface features in the same general location by 12z Friday, but these lows are not tightly clustered. As the forecast period elapses, the model divergence becomes more amplified. Generally speaking, expecting a progressive and unsettled pattern for the Bering and the Aleutians. However, due to the chronic lack of consistency as of late, this forecast package reflects a blend of models. Even with the blending and the hedging, handily there are confidence issues with the timing of the precipitation shields for each storm, the p-type category and the tracks of the lows that get compounded with time. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gales 130 132 172 174 176 178. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW LONG TERM...PS
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 3:40 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 26, 3:40 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 26, 3:57 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Nov 26, 3:57 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 27, 3:50 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 27, 9:37 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 26 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.