Gale Warning 589, NWS Anchorage, AK

494 
FZAK52 PAFC 172301
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181200-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 mb low 100 nm southwest of Cape Newenham will move to 160 nm
east of St. Paul at 991 mb Fri morning. This low will then dissipate
Fri afternoon. A 987 mb Kamchatka low will move near Shemya Fri 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-181200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt, except NW 15 kt W of Chirikof Island. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands 
E. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands
E. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind
15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181200-
Bristol Bay-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 25 kt except SW 15 kt from Port 
Moller E. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181200-
Unalaska Bay-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181200-
Adak to Kiska-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181200-
Kiska to Attu-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt, becoming SW 20 kt in the late afternoon. Seas 
13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N of Cape Newenham NE wind increasing to 30 kt. S of Cape
Newenham variable wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

888 
FZAK52 PAFC 181159
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190045-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS..A 997 mb low 30 nm
southwest of Cape Newenham moves to 20 nm northeast of St Paul 
Island at 993 mb for Sat morning. Its front extends over the eastern
Bering into Western Alaska through Sat morning. A 992 mb low 325 nm 
West of Attu loops to 95 nm Southwest of Adak at 989 mb and pushes 
its front into the Central Aleutians by Sat morning.. 

$$

PKZ150-190045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15
kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190045-
Bristol Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190045-
Unalaska Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190045-
Adak to Kiska-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190045-
Kiska to Attu-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 13 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
359 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

071 
FZAK52 PAFC 181206 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Corrected

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 997 mb low 30 nm
Southwest of Cape Newenham moves to 20 nm Northeast of St Paul 
Island at 993 mb for Sat morning. Its front extends over the Eastern 
Bering into Western Alaska through Sat morning. A 992 mb low 325 nm 
West of Attu loops to 95 nm Southwest of Adak at 989 mb and pushes 
its front into the Central Aleutians by Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15
kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 14 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
406 AM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

144 
FZAK52 PAFC 182352
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-191315-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 mb low near Cape Newenham will dissipate Sat morning. A 
front over the western Aleutians will slowly move over the central
Aleutians Sat morning. The associated 986 mb Kamchatka low will 
move to 180 nm west of Shemya Fri morning then it will move to 
130 nm east of Adak at 991 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-191315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-191315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-191315-
Bristol Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming W wind 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-191315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-191315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-191315-
Unalaska Bay-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-191315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-191315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-191315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-191315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-191315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ177-191315-
Adak to Kiska-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side... 17 ft Pacific
side.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-191315-
Kiska to Attu-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-191315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-191315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt N of Cape Newenham. E wind 10 kt S of Cape
Newenham. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-191315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-191315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 PM AKDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large anchor-low over the eastern Bering Sea remains
vertically stacked today with the 250 mb jet stream running south
of it and then bending northward into the eastern Gulf of Alaska.
This jet stream has moved eastward over the past day and was the
main source of the strong winds and heavy rainfall over areas of
Southcentral Alaska since then. Areas around the north Gulf coast
and Prince William Sound region saw 3 to 5 inches of rain in a 24
hour period. Today there are just some showers that now persist
in the southerly flow aloft now that the jet stream has moved off
to the east.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the low placement and intensity
situated in the eastern Bering and seem do be doing well through
tomorrow night.

Differences arise with the North Pacific low that moves northward
into the Gulf Thursday afternoon. The GFS and NAM are not only in
good agreement with each other, but have been more consistent on
a run-to-run basis as well. The GFS model, in particular, has
been consistent in showing the low with a stronger and more
northwesterly track which fits into the overall pattern the best.
The 12Z EC is starting to catch up with the other models compared
to older model runs, but has been the most inconsistent.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty southeast winds will persist through the evening and
then diminish toward morning. Showers will move through the
region through tomorrow, but should become less numerous
throughout the period. Ceilings and visibilities should remain VFR
even during these showers, though the possibility exists for a
brief drop to MVFR conditions in a shower.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Tonight through
Friday)...

The main weather concern through the end of the work week surrounds
the rapidly deepening low that lifts north over the Gulf Thursday
night into Friday. This system is expected to bring storm force
winds around the core of the low along with moderate to heavy rain
along the coastal locations.

Showers will continue to develop across Southcentral and the Gulf
as a weak trough remains over the region through Wednesday. Gusty
southerly winds persist through late tonight, then taper down as
the pressure gradient relaxes along the diminishing front across
the southern mainland. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across
much of the gulf and near the coasts with greater instability over
the area waters through Wednesday night.

The next front moves up along a strong short wave entering the
southern Gulf Thursday morning. The surface low deepens to 985 mb
as it approaches Kodiak Island Thursday afternoon. Gale force
easterly flow across much of the gulf will increase to storm
force as the another low quickly follows Thursday night. The
initial front brings steady rain back to Kodiak Island the eastern
Kenai with rain spreading to the north coast by Friday morning.
Showers will move inland ahead of the front, however strong north
to easterly flow limits rainfall amounts. The heaviest rain is
expected across the eastern Kenai and along Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...
A low south of Nunivak Island will weaken as it drifts to the
vicinity of Cape Newenham Wednesday afternoon, then remain nearly
stationary as it continues to dissipate through Thu night. Numerous
weak waves embedded within the flow around the upper low will
combine with broad-scale atmospheric instability to produce
showers. The lack of a strong feature makes it difficult to
pinpoint timing and location of showers. Thus, have largely used
a broad-brush approach to the precip forecast with scattered
showers across most of Southwest Alaska the next few days. Showers
will begin to diminish Friday as the low dissipates and weak
ridging builds in ahead of a deep low crossing the Gulf of
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Friday)...
A weakening low will remain parked near the Southwest Alaska coast
the next few days. Weak cold advection on the back side of this
low will produce a band of gusty gale force northerly winds
across the central Bering Sea on down to the central and eastern
Aleutian Islands. The cold advection will help to focus showers
through this same corridor. Temperatures may be just cold enough
to support snow or a rain snow mix over the northern Bering, but
the remainder of the area will remain safely all rain.

The low and upper level wave pattern will slowly shift eastward,
with a trough moving overhead of the western Aleutians Thursday
night through Friday. With ridging out ahead of this trough the
surface low will remain west of the Aleutian chain, though an
occluded front will track eastward across the western Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near Kenai, a second low south of the Aleutian
chain and a low near Kamchatka. Anticipate a very wet and progressive
pattern. There is good general consensus between the
GFS/EC/Canadian but the best performing model is thought to be the
GFS for this forecast period. Expect back to back lows to bring a
hefty amount of precipitation to Kodiak, Prince William Sound and
the Anchorage Bowl. Even though the third week of October is
considered to be part of the cold season for Alaska, the
temperatures with both storms will remain well above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the Kenai and other
portions of South Central can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period but significant accumulations not expected. The
entire forecast period, the GFS has above normal temperatures at
500 mb from Kenai to the Yukon Territory to Juneau.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood advisory 125.
MARINE...Gales 173-176 412-413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...PS