Gale Warning 568, NWS Anchorage, AK

736 
FZAK52 PAFC 092344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101230-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 992 mb low 250 nm south of Sand Point will move near King Salmon
at 985 mb early Wed morning and then move northwest and weaken.
A 987 mb low 240 nm southwest of St Paul Island will merge with
the previously mentioned low 70 nm South of Savoonga Thu 
afternoon. A 987 mb low 405 nm north of Attu moves to 45 nm 
southwest of Atka at 996 mb for Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 50 kt after midnight. Seas 13 
ft building to 22 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
22 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 45
kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101230-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding
to 10 kt.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101230-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101230-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15
ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101230-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 20 
kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 101143
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110015-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 982 mb low Wed morning over Pilot Point moves to 100 nm north of
Hooper Bay by Thu morning. A 992 mb low 130 nm west of Dutch
Harbor Thu morning moves and merges with the first low 105 nm west
of Toksook Bay at 990 mb by Fri morning. A 990 mb low 290 nm north
of Shemya Wed morning moves to 200 nm northeast of Shemya at 992 
mb by Thu morning and then to 205 nm southwest of Adak at 1000 mb
by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-110015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110015-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110015-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110015-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110015-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
404 AM AKDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels, a broad low centered over the western Bering
has extended a long wave trough east across Southwest Alaska and
into the western Gulf. A second upper level trough rotating
around the south side of the low is currently swinging through the
central and eastern Aleutians, while a deeper third trough
further to the west but well south of the Aleutians tracks east.
An upper level ridge extending from the eastern Gulf through
southcentral Alaska and then tilting off to the northwest is being
overrun by the frontal system rotating out of Southwest Alaska.
In the Gulf, the front currently stretching from the Barren
Islands off to the southeast into the Central Gulf is lifting
north towards the Kenai Peninsula with a broad cloud shield
extended out ahead of it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to be in good synoptic agreement, with the
precise timing of the various shortwave rotating through the main
challenge. In general, the shortwaves have been arriving slightly
faster than depicted so think the trend of speeding up the
systems is a reasonable one. Other changes from past model runs
include a slightly more southern track for the next incoming low
as it passes to the south of the western Alaska Peninsula this
afternoon. It does however then still curve to the north following
its earlier track so the net result of this change is rather minor.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue as southeasterly flow
increases ahead of an approaching frontal system. Downslope drying
should keep precipitation out of the area through late evening.
Early Wednesday morning some light rain may make it through the
downsloping at times with a much better chance of rain as well as
breezy southerly winds making it to PANC Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Windy and wet will be the general theme through Wednesday. The
culprits, a surface low/front lifting north across the Gulf today
and a second and stronger low/front moving north tonight and
Wednesday.

The first low near Kodiak Island this morning moves north and
weakens in the vicinity of the Barren Islands later today. Its
frontal trough continues north and stalls along the North Gulf
coast this evening. Gales are expected with the low and along the
front. The brunt of the rain will fall along the coasts and
western Cook Inlet. Strong cross-barrier flow (southeast) will
keep areas immediately to the lee of the Chugach mountains on the
drier side through tonight.

The stronger of the surface lows (remnants of Typhoon Kong-rey)
currently over the north Pacific intensifies and moves to over
eastern Bristol Bay Wednesday morning, then weakens as it heads
over the western interior Wednesday afternoon. A secondary triple
point center will likely develop along the frontal trough in the
vicinity of Kodiak Island tonight then head up Cook Inlet
Wednesday afternoon carrying what is left of the front with it.
Expect generally east/northeast gales to storm force winds over
the western Gulf tonight with these features. Winds will shift to
a southerly direction, due to strong pressure rises on the
backside of the triple point, Wednesday morning and trail behind
this low as it heads up the Inlet. Very strong gap flows are
expected in favored locales, Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley,
Matanuska Valley, Knik Arm, and along the Copper River, to name a
few. Winds should diminish across most areas Wednesday
evening/night. As with the first low today, the precipitation
pattern should be about the same. The exception will be rain
should get into the traditionally downsloped areas to the lee of
the Chugach as the triple point works its way up Cook Inlet
Wednesday afternoon/early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Thursday)

Widespread showers have developed across the western half of the
area. This is due to strong low-level convergence along an
approaching front, aided by a weak tropical connection helping to
boost precipitable water values, with vort maxes in the flow aloft
providing increased bursts of ascent. This looks to continue
through the evening with rainfall spreading further inland from
west to east. By late evening, the coverage may drop off somewhat
as the front weakens due to the occlusion process, but this will
be short-lived.

Our next feature of interest is a rapidly strengthening surface
low, with even more of a tropical feed being reinforced across the
region. This storm (the remnants of former Super Typhoon Kong-Rey)
will reach the AKPEN around midnight, with a significant vort max
rounding the base of the Bering Sea long-wave trough, with a 65 to
70 kt low-level jet developing, helping to advect higher moisture
values into the region. By morning, southwest Alaska will be
juxtaposed between the arriving surface low, upper disturbance,
and left exit region dynamics of a 135 knot jet stream. This
combined with the low-level moisture advection will allow for
fairly robust rainfall to develop. It would be interesting to
watch the radar morphology for this event, but, unfortunately the
King Salmon Doppler radar is down for now. In any event, widespread
rainfall will develop with some of it being moderate to heavy at
times. This will be especially true on the east and south-facing
slopes where orographic lifting will increase rain rates
significantly.

The other story with this second storm will be strong wind gusts,
both ahead of the low as some of that 850 mb jet energy mixes
down, aided by down-sloping affects in the lee of the mountains,
and also on the backside of the low as strong disturbances
rotating around the low and dry advection enhance downward mixing
potential. All of this will spread northward through the day
Wednesday. So in short, look for widespread light rainfall
Tuesday, followed by moderate to heavy rainfall with strong wind
gusts developing on Wednesday, with rainfall continuing into
Thursday as yet another disturbance enters the picture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Thursday)

Deteriorating conditions will rapidly ensue over the next 24
hours for the AKPEN and adjacent coastal waters. The remnants of a
former super typhoon will interact with a strong vort max
rounding the base of the persistent Bering Sea trough. This will
allow for rapid intensification of a surface low as it enter the
region, aided by strong moisture transport at 850 mb and left exit
dynamics of a intensifying upper-level jet stream. Widespread
rainfall, some likely heavy at times, will develop. Also,
sustained storm-force winds, with hurricane-force gusts are
expected. This will allow seas to build into the 19 to 24 feet
range, with the worst conditions expected from late Wednesday
morning into the afternoon for locations south and east of the
Shumagin Islands. Between the peninsula and the mainland,
sustained gales are about as strong as the winds look to get for
Bristol Bay.

For the remainder of the region, disturbances rotating around the
western Bering low will bring periods of sustained gales with seas
occasionally reaching 14 to 17 feet, with a general showery
pattern remaining in place.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The mid to long term begins Thursday with the models in overall
agreement with a low over the northern Bering Sea and a ridge of
high pressure extending from the Gulf of Alaska into the north
Gulf Coast. Moving into Friday we have a weak low, short wave that
gets caught in the strong southerly flow into the Gulf of Alaska
that rapidly moves to the north Gulf Coast by Saturday morning.
This will push the ridge of high pressure out of the Gulf of
Alaska into British Columbia. Meanwhile, out west, we have
another strong low moving into the western Bering Sea and
Aleutians late Friday night. The models are struggling to unify on
a solution as the storm track and forecast pressure have
significant spreads between the deterministic models and the
ensemble blend. Where the models are consistent is the location of
the front as it sweeps into the western Aleutians Friday night to
Saturday morning. As we move into Sunday the spread in the model
solutions continues to grow with significant differences in the
sensible weather depending on which solution is used. The ensemble
solution and WPC have a faster track to the east northeast than
the latest deterministic models. Therefore, we will maintain the
current forecast due to low confidence in any one.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 125 129 136 137 139 140 141 155 160 177 178
         Storm Warning 130 131 132 138 150

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...SA