Gale Warning 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

942 
FZAK62 PAFC 161141
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170100-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 mb low at 57N 164W loops to 58N 160W at 997 mb by Thu
morning. Its front wraps over the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern 
Bering into Western Alaska through Thu morning. High pressure
eases over the Western Aleutians for Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

084 
FZAK62 PAFC 162331
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171345-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low at 58N 166W Tue afternoon moves to 57N 163W at 
992 mb by Wed afternoon and then to 55N 161W at 999 mb by Thu 
afternoon. A 990 mb low at 55N 162E Wed afternoon moves to 
52N 175W at 993 mb by Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

515 
FZAK62 PAFC 171135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180115-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 58N 165W loops to 57N 164W at 993 mb for Fri
morning. Its front wraps over the Alaska Peninsula, Eastern
Aleutians and Eastern Bering into Western Alaska through Fri
morning. A 984 mb Kamchatka low extends a front into the Western
Aleutians for Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

034 
FZAK62 PAFC 172301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181315-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 mb low at 57N 163W will move to 57N 165W at 991 mb Fri
morning. This low will then dissipate Fri afternoon. A 987 mb 
Kamchatka low will move near 53N 173W Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern is setup with a deep low just south of the Alaska
Peninsula and ridging over southeast Alaska the extends into
mainland Alaska. This pattern keeps southerly flow over the
Gulf and southern mainland with a long fetch that is pulling up
moisture from the south. The front associated with the main low is
starting to push in over southwest Alaska and Kodiak Island as it
tracks to the northeast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models stay in good agreement with the low south of the Alaska
Peninsula as it tracks into the eastern Bering and stalls there
through the mid term. However, they are struggling with a low
further to the west that will approach the western Aleutians
Wednesday night. The NAM is the furthest north while the EC is
furthest south with the others in between. The middle ground was
preferred due to the spread of the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light surface winds will persist. The
biggest challenge is timing of windshear. There is high confidence
of windshear happening due to Turnagain Arm winds moving in over
the west Anchorage with northerly flow at the surface. However,
there is some uncertainty with the exact timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Strong southerly flow aloft is developing over the northern Gulf
and into Southcentral. A stream of moisture in this flow will
push into the area with rain developing along the coast this
morning and pushing inland during the day. Strong surface winds
will develop over the northern Gulf as a front rides this
southerly flow. Winds will rise to Storm force tonight in a
barrier jet along the north Gulf coast from Cape Suckling westward
into Prince William Sound as the front becomes more negatively
tilted. Initially the inland valleys will not see a lot of rain,
but as the front moves onshore tonight rainfall rates will
increase. On Tuesday the front will move inland. Moist southerly
to southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Tuesday night.
This will combine with cyclonic flow (due to the upper low
sitting in the eastern Bering Sea) to keep showers in the
forecast. Most of the showers will be along the coast and over the
mountains, but some will occur in the valleys as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal system stretched across the Kuskokwim Delta and
greater Bristol Bay area early this morning will continue to
rotate inland today with breezy east to southeasterly winds
persisting. Numerous bands of showers associated with the large
upper level low tracking into the southeastern Bering will rotate
onshore and across Southwest Alaska through midweek. Showers will
taper off to a more scattered coverage Wednesday night as the low
begins moving south again.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The large vertically stacked low centered south of Unimak Pass
will lift north across the western Alaska Peninsula today. The low
will continue to gradually fill as it slowly tracks north tonight to
become centered about half way between Cape Newenham and the
Pribilof Islands where it will stall Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The low will then begin tracking back to the south on Wednesday to
cross the Alaska Peninsula again late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning. Northerly flow will persist across the west and
central Bering through Wednesday with the next frontal system
approaching the western Aleutians from the south Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near Kenai, a second low south of the Aleutian
chain and a low near Kamchatka. Anticipate a very progressive
pattern. The guidance is coming into better agreement. Expect back
to back lows to bring a healthy amount of precipitation to PWS
and the Anchorage metro area. Even though the third week of
October is considered to be part of the cold season for Alaska,
the temperatures with both storms will remain above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the Kenai and other
portions of South Central can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...128 129 130 131 174 176 185 351 352 412.
		 Storms...119 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...PS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1224 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

AKZ131-135-161200-
Northeast Prince William Sound-Southeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Valdez, Thompson Pass, and Cordova
1224 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...Heavy RAIN AND STRONG WINDS FOR THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...

A strong weather front will bring heavy rain and strong winds to
the Prince William Sound area this afternoon through tonight.

Rainfall for this afternoon through late tonight is expected to
be in the 2 to 5 inch range with highest amounts at higher
elevations. Be aware of rising river levels. Localized flooding
in low lying areas is also possible through Tuesday night.

Winds will be strongest in the Cordova area and into the marine
area of Prince William Sound overnight tonight with Southeast winds
40 to 55 mph with some gusts to 65 mph. Winds will not be nearly
as strong in the Valdez area.

Winds and rain should diminish early Tuesday morning.