Gale Warning 535, NWS Anchorage, AK

030 
FZAK62 PAFC 152341
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161315-
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 mb gale-force low at 55N 162W moves to 59N 165W at 981 mb 
for Tue afternoon. It then drifts to 57N 164 W at 993 mb by Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

942 
FZAK62 PAFC 161141
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170100-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 mb low at 57N 164W loops to 58N 160W at 997 mb by Thu
morning. Its front wraps over the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern 
Bering into Western Alaska through Thu morning. High pressure
eases over the Western Aleutians for Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

084 
FZAK62 PAFC 162331
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171345-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low at 58N 166W Tue afternoon moves to 57N 163W at 
992 mb by Wed afternoon and then to 55N 161W at 999 mb by Thu 
afternoon. A 990 mb low at 55N 162E Wed afternoon moves to 
52N 175W at 993 mb by Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
331 PM AKDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

515 
FZAK62 PAFC 171135
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180115-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 58N 165W loops to 57N 164W at 993 mb for Fri
morning. Its front wraps over the Alaska Peninsula, Eastern
Aleutians and Eastern Bering into Western Alaska through Fri
morning. A 984 mb Kamchatka low extends a front into the Western
Aleutians for Fri morning. 

$$

PKZ411-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

034 
FZAK62 PAFC 172301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181315-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 992 mb low at 57N 163W will move to 57N 165W at 991 mb Fri
morning. This low will then dissipate Fri afternoon. A 987 mb 
Kamchatka low will move near 53N 173W Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
301 PM AKDT Wed Oct 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKDT Sun Oct 14 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large occluded low is situated south of Dutch Harbor this
afternoon with high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. The
southerly flow aloft between these features will increase tomorrow
as a front in the north Pacific moves into the central Gulf and
then to Prince William Sound. This front will tap into some
subtropical moisture and push an atmospheric river into Prince
William sound and surrounding coastal areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement when all the 12Z and 18Z
model runs are compared. There are some important changes in the models
from yesterday afternoon and evening which are impacting the
forecasts along the North Gulf coast and Prince William Sound.
The first issue is the low and associated front this afternoon in
the central Gulf of Alaska. This low is moving eastward a bit
faster today and will be out of the forecast area this evening.
More importantly is the front in the Gulf Monday and Monday night
which will be much stronger than previously indicated as it brings
a barrier jet along the North Gulf coast and into Prince William
Sound. After this models indicate a similar solution for the
region through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist
through the night. Rain will move into the area around noon Monday
and ceilings will lower at that time but should remain VFR
through Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A large area of low pressure centered near Dutch Harbor will tap
into some tropical moisture tonight, guiding the moisture stream,
otherwise known as an "atmospheric river" northward into Prince
William Sound during the day on Monday. This will have a number of
impacts. First all the sunshine we are experiencing now across
Southcentral will be long gone by Monday morning as the rainfall
moves in. Second, the atmospheric river will cause a prolonged
period of heavy rain throughout much of Prince William Sound
starting from about midday Monday and persisting into late Monday
night before moving off to the east. Fortunately, since this will
be a relatively brief period of time for the atmospheric river to
persist, rainfall totals are expected to be in the 3 to 5 inch
range for areas such as Cordova, Valdez, and Whittier through
Tuesday morning. Since Seward is further west, it will only be
caught up in the heavier rain for a much shorter time, so about 2
inches of rain is expected there. While the atmospheric river is
aimed into northwestern Prince William Sound, some of the moisture
is expected to succeed at crossing the mountains and cause rain
over Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys, especially Monday night.
Around 1 inch of rain is expected in these areas.

In addition to the widespread rainfall, wind is also expected to
become very strong along the north Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound. This is a significant change from previous forecasts as the
atmospheric river previously was not expected to get as far west,
nor the front to get quite as strong. Thus, widespread gales and
localized storm force winds are now expected on Monday night from
a "barrier jet". The barrier jet is a corridor of strong winds
that forms along mountainous coasts when a front oriented parallel
to the mountains but moving towards them temporarily creates an
invisible tube through which the wind accelerates to much higher
speeds. Winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 55-65 mph are expected
along the coast and into Prince William Sound Monday night. Waves
are expected to get as high as 14 feet in Prince William Sound and
over 20 feet out in the Gulf. Those who will be in the area
Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning should prepare for
hazardous winds and seas.

After the front moves into the mountains, the winds will taper off
very quickly Tuesday morning back to the 10-20 knot range.
However, because the large-scale winds will continue to be onshore
through Wednesday, upslope flow will continue to produce rain
throughout Prince William Sound, though with slowly diminishing
rainfall rates. Scattered to numerous showers will continue
over the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and the
Copper River Basin both Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Mon
through Wed)...
Today is the relative "calm" before the storm. A broad, mid-960 mb
range is slowly churning east near Dutch Harbor. A broad occluded
front associated with it is pushing from SW to NE through Bristol
Bay. This front and low are the reasons for the gusty offshore
winds today. The system also produced some strong cells near the
Kuskokwim Bay and Nunivak Island making for a few lightning
strikes earlier today. The gusty E-SE winds will continue to
increase this evening before they peak right around daybreak Mon.
A slight chance of thunderstorms will remain over the marine zones
near Nunivak through the evening.

Shower activity will be on the increase tonight into Mon. The
southeast cross-barrier winds will help to keep some of the
population centers in the lee of the mountains (Bethel, King
Salmon, Iliamna, etc) a bit drier. The front will bring more
widespread steady rain across all of SW AK as we march through the
day Mon. With some decent instability and potent lift, we can't
rule out the possibility of a strike or 2 along the coast on Mon
afternoon as well.

Tue the low will track right along the coast. This will make for
more unsettled weather with abundant showers and gusty winds.
Overall flow will remain out of the south, so expect the mild
temperatures to continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Mon
through Wed)...
A very large low will dominate the weather across the region. The
low itself is currently near Dutch Harbor. It will continue a slow
east to northeast track through the start of the week. The
strongest winds (gale-force) associated with it are along its
occluded front over the Eastern Bering. To the west of the low,
across the Central and Western Bering, winds have shifted to a
N-NW direction. These winds are generally solid small craft
level with some gale-force gusts. Along the front and under the
low center there remains a slight chance of some thunderstorms (as
we saw this morning). This chance will remain through the next
several days with warm ocean waters and cold air aloft.

As the low drifts east of St Paul by Tue, another shortwave will
drop in through the western half of the trough. This shortwave
will usher in some of the coldest air of the season and it too
will bring a chance for thunderstorms. With some slightly better
mixing in colder air, expect another swath of gales to move from
south to north along with this wave.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

At the onset of the forecast period, the synoptic pattern
features a low near Kenai, a second low south of the Aleutian
chain and a low near Kamchatka. Anticipate a very progressive
pattern. The guidance is coming into better agreement. Expect back
to back lows to bring a healthy amount of precipitation to PWS
and the Anchorage metro area. Even though the third week of
October is considered to be part of the cold season for Alaska,
the temperatures with both storms will remain above freezing in
the low elevations. Higher elevations on the Kenai and other
portions of South Central can expect a fresh blanket of snow this
forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 119. Gales 120 125 130 131 150 160 165 174 176 180
185 351 352 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PS