Gale Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

424 
FZAK51 PAFC 120010
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-121245-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the north Gulf coast will remain stationary through
Fri. A second front will enter the southwestern Gulf this evening
and merge with the existing front over the northern Gulf on Fri 
afternoon, then weaken Fri night. Yet another front will quickly 
cross the Gulf on Sat. 

$$

PKZ119-121245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-121245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-121245-
Resurrection Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Snow with rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-121245-
Prince William Sound-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-121245-
Port Valdez-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-121245-
Valdez Narrows-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-121245-
Valdez Arm-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-121245-
Passage Canal-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-121245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-121245-
Barren Islands East-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-121245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-121245-
Chiniak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-121245-
Marmot Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-121245-
Shelikof Strait-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-121245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-121245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-121245-
Kachemak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The ridging over the southern mainland continues to gradually
weaken as it gets squeezed by approaching troughs from the north
and south. Despite this, it was one of the colder nights of the
year over interior Southcentral with temperatures this morning in
the -20s to -30s across the Copper River Basin and in the -10s to
-20s in portions of the Mat-Su valleys. Meanwhile, a very weak mid-
level wave has combined with low level isentropic lift to produce
flurries/very light snow from the western Kenai to Anchorage and
the southern Mat-Su. Areas of snow are also spreading northward
along the north Gulf coast/Prince William Sound. Surface-based
instability over the open waters of the Gulf and Prince William
Sound is leading to more organized/slightly heavier precipitation.
The air mass is cold enough to support snow for any precipitation
which moves onshore today.

Meanwhile, a large and broad trough remains centered over the
Bering Sea and North Pacific with many weak features moving through
the trough. Of most note, a weak low is lifting northward toward
Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula with an east/west oriented
occluded front lifting northward into the Gulf. Out west, an occluded
front is elongating along the Western Aleutians, with a triple point
low developing south of the Central Aleutians. The upper level jet,
which is farther south (centered at around 40N latitude) is driving
the triple point and associated frontal system eastward across the
North Pacific. Would expect to see additional frontal waves or weak
triple point low development as the jet continues eastward. With most
of the forcing so far south, Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea
region are fairly quiet, with the most noteworthy weather being gale
force easterlies across portions of the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Most models are not initializing well with the low south of Kodiak.
The ECMWF is verifying the best, but it does not carry a closed center
all the way to the Alaska Peninsula, and based on satellite imagery
this low will no doubt survive, though it will weaken as it wraps
back westward. The main impact will be stronger winds in the vicinity
of Kodiak Island (including Shelikof Strait). Models are in good
agreement with the low deepening south of the Central Aleutians, but
there is a huge spread in solutions with downstream low development.
This portion of the North Pacific (south of the Alaska Peninsula) is
infamous among meteorologists for poor model performance. Although
confidence is low, will trend toward the ECMWF solution, which is the
only model with decent run-to-run consistency in low positions during
the Thursday night through Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Ceilings will hover around the key 5000 ft level through this
afternoon, but expect gradual lifting of the ceiling as low level
southeasterly flow strengthens during the evening hours. With strong
downslope flow setting up ahead of the next front lifting northward
across the Gulf, conditions will remain safely VFR through the TAF
period. Meanwhile, northerly winds will slowly increase as front
approaches. The surface-based temperature inversion in place
should keep winds from becoming gusty, though the inversion will
weaken with time, so there could be a bit more wind Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Weak isentropic lift over northern Cook Inlet and the Susitna
Valley today has produced widespread cloud cover and some areas of
light snow. This is also ushering in more southeasterly flow
aloft over the region. This will allow the gusty northerly gap
winds to diminish. In Thompson pass the wind chill has been
running around 35 below zero and the diminishing winds with
rising temperatures will improve them beginning tomorrow.

Generally warmer temperatures will move into the area as a front
moves into the southern Gulf tonight and to the northern Gulf
coast tomorrow. The southeast flow will increase precipitation
along the coast and downslope out most of the inland areas as is
typical. The Gulf of Alaska marine areas will see persistent gale
force winds the next few days with the tightening pressure
gradient. This will also build seas near or above 20 ft for a
large portion of the Gulf by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...
Southwest Alaska sits between an upper level ridge to the east
and an upper level low to the west situated over the Bering.
This has led to relatively quiet conditions over the area with
persistent easterly flow at the surface and partly cloudy skies.
Cold air has set-up over the Upper Kuskokwim River Valley with
continued sub zero temperatures expected tonight around the
Aniak/Sleetmute/Stoney River area. For tomorrow, a front
associated with a surface low south of Kodiak will move north
across the region increasing cloud cover and temperatures, though
precipitation will be limited to the windward side of the mountain
ranges as strong cross barrier flow will lead to downsloping in
the lower elevations. On Friday a front associated with a strong
low pressure system south of the Aleutians will sweep across the
region which will bring another round of strong southeasterly
winds and warm air advection, with temperatures rising into the
upper 30's to low 40's in the Bristol Bay region. Strong cross
barrier flow will again lead to downsloping limiting the amount of
precipitation seen in the valleys, though precipitation will
redevelop near Dillingham and Togiak, bringing some light snow
changing to mixed snow/rain showers during the day on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...
The weather pattern over the Bering and Aleutians will be
dominated by a persistent upper level trough covering most of the
region with individual lows and short waves spinning off the
periphery. Tomorrow, a surface low will continue to develop south
of the Central Aleutians which will swing a front north across the
Eastern Aleutians and the AK Pen, bringing rain and gale force
winds to the open waters and coastal areas. The low will stall out
south of Dutch Harbor and weaken some through the day on Friday
but will continue to bring periods of rain and gusty winds into
the area. The Western Aleutians will see somewhat quieter weather
as the west side of the trough lies over the area, though
scattered showers from embedded weak disturbances will track
though the area for the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Ridging looks to setup over western Canada by Friday with a
longwave trough out over the Bering Sea. This will leave the
southern mainland in warm southerly flow into the middle of next
week when the pattern changes with the ridging finally moving
east. The southerly flow will keep the majority of the heavy
precip along the north Gulf coast and it looks to be predominately
rain. While the models are in decent agreement with the overall
pattern of the riding and longwave trough, they are struggling
with the placement of individual lows within the trough. This led
to ensembles being preferred in the long term over the
deterministic runs.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 130-132 138-140 150 155 160 165 174 179 351
               352 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...DK