Gale Warning 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

730 
FZAK61 PAFC 111245
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-120145-
345 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front in the northern Gulf will dissipate tonight. A second
front will enter the southwestern Gulf tonight, then move into 
the northeastern Gulf Fri afternoon. A 959 mb North Pacific low 
will then approach the southern Gulf Sat morning.

$$

PKZ351-120145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ352-120145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

786 
FZAK61 PAFC 120010
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-121345-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front along the north Gulf coast will remain stationary through
Fri. A second front will enter the southwestern Gulf this evening
and merge with the existing front over the northern Gulf on Fri 
afternoon, then weaken Fri night. Yet another front will quickly 
cross the Gulf on Sat. 

$$

PKZ351-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ352-121345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
310 PM AKST Thu Jan 11 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

160 
FZAK61 PAFC 121255
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-130145-
355 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front in the southwestern Gulf will move into the northeastern
Gulf this afternoon where it will persist through Sat morning. A 
low in the North Pacific will move to 54N 150W at 953 mb Sat 
morning, then to 57N 156W at 952 mb Sat afternoon. The low will 
then move to the eastern Bering Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ351-130145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
355 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft building to 23 to 29
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-130145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
355 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2018

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft building to 25 to 29
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level pattern over Southern Alaska continues to
reorganize itself this morning. A col over Southcentral currently
is preventing any upper level contribution to the weather over the
region. A broad trough and weak vertically-stacked low over the
Bering is transporting moisture and light precipitation northward
across the eastern Aleutians and the Southwest Alaska coastline.
Another much stronger low being invigorated by strong Pacific Jet
is approaching the Bering upper low from the west, which will
eventually absorb the low, and reestablish itself over the North
Pacific south of the Alaska Peninsula. As a result, the pattern
will be changing for all of Southern Alaska for the warmer. More
on that below.

Some of the coldest air of the winter so far has established
itself in Southcentral, specifically in the Copper River Basin.
Gulkana's temperature of -35 as of the time of this writing, is
the coldest its been there this winter. Elsewhere from Anchorage
north, clear skies, light winds, and snow cover will make for near
ideal- conditions for very cold temperatures, so long as the
winds stay light, and the cloud cover over the Kenai Peninsula
stays there. This morning will be all of Southcentral's final
chance at truly winter-like temperatures as a dramatic warm up
begins today.

Much of Southwest Alaska is seeing some of their coldest
temperatures for a while now as well with Sleetmute now south of
-20, and interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta sitting in
the single digits as of the time of this writing. The same story
about the warm up holds true in Southwest as the same warm air
mass encroaches there as well. The weakening low over the Bering
remains in control of the weather there, keeping conditions
seasonably mild with occasional showers moving through.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are all in decent agreement through the first couple
days. Once again, the NAM was the outlier in its handling of a
system moving northwest towards southern Kodiak Island tonight.
The NAM is much stronger than the other models, and a weaker
solution was favored, in following with the other models largely
agreeing. The primary forecast challenges are how quickly the
warm up occurs across Southcentral in any one location, and
precipitation type issues as above freezing temperatures slowly
intrude further inland with time. Forecast confidence is about
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist. A
stray snow shower or two is possible this morning. Southeast
winds above the airport may cause weak wind shear concerns
Wednesday night through Thursday as northerly winds continue at
the surface. With the southeast winds only expected to be blowing
at about 20 kts, the wind shear mention was left out of the TAF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A weak mid-level low that developed over Northern Cook Inlet late
last night will bring continued snow showers to the Kenai
Peninsula and could bring flurries as far north as the Anchorage
Bowl this morning. Anything that does develop over the Anchorage
Bowl will be very light and short lived however, so nothing more
than a light dusting should be expected. The focus then shifts to
another weak low moving westward through the Northern Gulf, which
should allow for a brief ramp up of the northerly gap winds from
Resurrection Bay into the Valdez area, as well as a chance of snow
into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula by this afternoon. Without a
significant moisture source these showers are not expected to be
significant initially, but will increase in intensity as they tap
into moisture from a low approaching the Southern Gulf. This low
will be the first in a series of northerly moving lows that is
expected to bring gale force winds to the waters of the Gulf,
persistent precipitation to the North Gulf Coast, and warming
temperatures throughout the area through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Friday)

Early this morning, Southwest Alaska remains sandwiched between a
strong area of high pressure over the Yukon, and a negatively
tilted upper-level trough that stretches from near the Kamchatka
Peninsula through the central Aleutians. This has set up a
southeast flow aloft, with a few vort maxes rotating around the
Bering trough just grazing coastal locations. Periodic bursts of
ascent associated with these disturbances will help foster
periodic increases in shower development for coastal locations
and more so the AKpen vicinity. Meanwhile, a respectable surface
pressure gradient is in place across the region, with light winds
in place. Cold air continues to advect into the area from the
northeast, with the interior valleys bearing the brunt of it.
Overall, look for this pattern to continue through Thursday
evening, before an approaching occluded front turns surface winds
more easterly, which will allow temperatures to moderate, with
precipitation chances increasing somewhat.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The weather pattern looks to remain stagnant through the next few
days as a trough extends from south of Siberia towards the
Central Aleutians. A persistent area of low pressure just east of
Adak will move slowly northwestward through this evening, before
another incoming low from the west takes up residence in virtually
the same position as the current system. Several areas of low
pressure rotating around the parent low will maintain a general
showery type theme across the region, with some increase in
precipitation coverage and wind speeds as a series of
fronts/inverted troughs accompany each area of low pressure. In
short, expect more of the same to continue for the Bering and the
Aleutians for the next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Heading towards the end of the week, a familiar pattern begins to
setup with a longwave trough stretching through the Bering Sea and
ridging to the east over western Canada. This setup will bring
back warm southerly flow to the southern mainland for the weekend
and much of next week. While there is fairly good agreement in the
overall setup, the models are struggling with placement of lows
embedded within the longwave trough. Because of this, ensembles
were preferred in the long term over the deterministic runs.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale: 119 127 130 131 138 139 150 155 165 170 171 172 173
  			   174 179 180 185 412 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 139 140 180 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DK