Gale Warning 496, NWS Anchorage, AK

739 
FZAK52 PAFC 032303
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041230-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

Bering high pressure pushes across the Alaska Peninsula through 
Wed afternoon. A 1005 mb low 360 nm southwest of Attu moves to 415
nm southwest of Attu at 1010 mb then dissipates Wed morning. A 
1007 mb North Pacific low forms along the front and moves to 355 
nm south of Kiska at 1005 mb by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041230-
Bristol Bay-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041230-
Unalaska Bay-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041230-
Adak to Kiska-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041230-
Kiska to Attu-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
303 PM AKDT Mon Sep 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge and surface high pressure are over the
Bering Sea and building slowly eastward. This is producing large
areas of clear skies over Southcentral and Southwest Mainland
Alaska. However, the ridge is far enough west to keep upper level
flow out of the northwest over Southcentral Alaska which is
allowing some cloud cover associated with short waves embedded in
the flow to bring some (mostly) higher level clouds to the Alaska
Range and into the Copper River Basin.
The low level subsidence is also bringing widespread stratus over
the Bering Sea with some of this moving on shore in the Kuskokwim
River Delta region and as far inland as the Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The good model agreement continues for both upper level and
surface features. The most excitement at this time is how fast an
upper level trough digs southward near the Alcan border late in
the week. The sensible effect of this is merely the amount of
cloud cover in the Copper River Basin late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A stationary upper-level ridge situated over the western half of
the state will continue to provide dry conditions across most of
Southcentral and the Gulf for the next couple days and beyond.
The exception to this will be over the Copper River Basin and
Talkeetna Mountains where increased cloud cover and some widely
scattered precipitation is possible tonight and again on Tuesday
as a two upper-level shortwaves drop down the east side of the
ridge. With the ridge firmly in place over most of Southcentral,
light winds will be the norm. A general offshore flow will produce
some localized gusty winds at times, namely for
Seward/Resurrection Bay and Whittier/Passage Canal tonight and
along the Copper River Delta for Tuesday. Clear skies under the
ridge will allow for plenty of nighttime radiational cooling,
bringing about the potential for areas of early morning shallow
ground fog. Right now, the best chance for patchy fog looks to be
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as a weak up-inlet flow
pushes some additional moisture along the western Kenai Peninsula,
across Anchorage and into the Susitna Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Dry conditions persist across the Southwest through Tuesday with a
ridge sliding to the coast. Light west to north flow is expected
to be the prevailing wind across the region through this time. Low
clouds and patchy fog, along the eastern Bering, spread across
the Kuskokwim Delta during the early morning hours and will
eventually move further inland as the ridge center slides to the
coast through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Patchy fog and low clouds persist across the Bering through the
beginning of the week. The next weather front slides to the
western Aleutians Sunday night and continues on a slow eastward
path through Tuesday morning before stalling along the central
waters. Southeasterly gale marine winds were added across the
Central Aleutians Monday night through Tuesday as the pressure
tightens between the surface low driving the front and ridging
over the eastern Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Beginning Thursday, models are all in agreement depicting a
highly amplified upper level ridge forming into an omega block
over the Northern Pacific extending well north into the Bering Sea
and Northeast Siberia. The ridge is bookend by a pair of upper
level lows, with one located over the far Western Aleutians/Bering
while the other low is located further east over the NE Pacific
impacting the Alaska Panhandle. Energy riding over the top of the
ridge will sweep down from the Arctic and across the mainland on
Thursday in the form of a shortwave trough. There are some
differences in timing of this feature, with the EC being a bit
quicker than other solutions but all show an area of precipitation
spreading south across the AKPEN and Southwest Alaska Thursday,
with lesser amounts seen over Southcentral and the Copper River
Basin as moisture will have a much harder time making it over the
Alaska Range.

As the trough reaches the Gulf, a closed low forms and merges
with the pre-existing upper level low. This will help re-amplify
the large upper ridge over the Bering bringing a return to dry
offshore flow to most of the mainland by Friday. The tightened
pressure gradient between the building high over the Bering and
low over the Eastern Gulf will lead to gusty outflow winds for
typically favored locations along the North Gulf Coast, including
Seward, Whittier, and Valdez.

Looking into next weekend, models all still depict the upper ridge
maintaining itself over the Bering and Western Mainland leading to
a continuation of the pleasant dry and sunny weather for the area
through at least the beginning of the following week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 175-177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...KVP