Gale Warning 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

711 
FZAK62 PAFC 201143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210045-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 mb low at 51N 177W moves to 58N 178W at 992 mb by Fri
morning and then to 60N 170W at 983 mb by Sat morning.  

$$

PKZ411-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TODAY...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

539 
FZAK62 PAFC 202335
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211315-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 mb low at 55N 179W moves to 59N 174W at 983 mb Fri
afternoon and then moves to 62N 167W at 987 mb Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 kt, increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind becoming S 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 to 15 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

131 
FZAK62 PAFC 211143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220130-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 low at 59N 177W moves to 61N 169W at 983 mb by Sat morning
and then moves inland near 62N 164W at 986 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

968 
FZAK62 PAFC 212343
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221330-
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 59N 174W moves over Hooper Bay Sat afternoon at
983 mb. The low then drifts north to Norton Sound Sun afternoon 
at 996 mb.

$$

PKZ411-221330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 0 to 4 ft.

$$

758 
FZAK62 PAFC 221230
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230115-
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low at 60N 170W will move inland near 62N 165W at 985 mb
by Sun morning and then drifts north to Norton Sound by Mon 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-230115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
430 AM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 0 to 4 ft.

$$

580 
FZAK62 PAFC 222341
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231245-
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 mb low at 61N 167W loops over land to 64N 168W at 998 mb for 
Mon afternoon. Its front wraps over the Eastern Bering through Mon 
afternoon. A front extends through Bristol Bay to South of the 
Aleutians for Mon afternoon. A 1012 mb North Pacific low moves along 
the front to near 59N 158W at 991 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-231245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKDT Sat Sep 22 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 0 to 4 ft.

$$

389 
FZAK62 PAFC 231140
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-240230-
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the eastern Bering will dissipate tonight. A 999 mb
low will move to 53N 162W this afternoon then it will move to 58N
159W at 990 mb late tonight. The low will then move inland at 988
mb Mon morning. A front will approach the western Aleutians Tue 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-240230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-240230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-240230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-240230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 AM AKDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 AM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper air pattern features a closed upper level low over the
Bering Strait with the trough axis extending into Northern Alaska.
There is a shortwave ridge over the Bering Sea ahead of a series
of low amplitude shortwave troughs ejecting off a larger trough
over the Kamchatka. Over Southcentral, there is a weak leftover
remnant of a once stronger shortwave trough moving through, and
this seems to be enhancing mid level cloud cover and even a few
stray showers over parts of the interior.

Finally, over the western Bering, there is a rapidly weakening
warm front which is moving toward the Pribilof Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models have gone through quite a few adjustments the
past few days (i.e., they have really been terrible) with respect
to a closed upper low (the one noted above which is currently over
the Bering Strait) and the associated track of this feature over
the next few days. Previously, most guidance was depicting this
low taking a southward track which would put most of Southcentral
Alaska under the influence of dry northwest upper level flow. Now,
all the models track this feature farther north which allows for a
much more rapid transition to moist southwest flow from the Bering
Sea. Long story short, this means clouds and moisture will be
moving into Southern Alaska much sooner, and it also keeps a more
moist and cloudy pattern in for the weekend. The favored models
were the GFS and NAM, although all models are quite similar now
with the general pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Satellite and ground based obs are showing quite a bit of
low stratus around Cook Inlet this morning. The general thought is
this should clear through daytime heating and reach VFR by this
afternoon. Other than that, expect winds less than 10 knots
through the period with dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low that is centered near Kotzebue Sound this
morning will slowly slide east over the next couple of days, being
centered near Anaktuvuk Pass Friday morning. As this low moves
eastward, the flow aloft will become more westerly. Much of the
moisture from this system will thus be blocked by the Alaska
Range, but plenty of clouds will still be over the area. Showers
will mostly be limited to the Susitna Valley and Copper River
basin, although a few could be seen further south. The lingering
low level moisture and longer nights are also allowing some fog to
form this morning, mainly near Cook Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A surface ridge currently across the Southwest holds across the
region today; however, a low over the Bering Strait sends short
waves south... bringing increased rain chances today through
Thursday. A brief break from showers is expected Thursday night
with the upper low exiting east across the central interior. The
next front moves to the coast early Friday morning with gusty
southeasterly flow along the boundary and rain. The pushes across
the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay by late afternoon. Rain
continues through Friday night with the associated surface low
approaching the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The ridge that has been present over the Bering and Aleutians for
the past few days is losing influence as a weak front pushes
across from a Kamchatka low. The next front moves quickly up
from the North Pacific tonight, with the low center crossing over
the central Aleutians Thursday by morning. Gale force winds
increase over the central Aleutians as the front pushes further
north into the Bering. The surface low continues to deepen on its
eastward track into Friday. This subtropical system spreads
moderate rain and gusty gale winds as it moves across to the west
coast on Friday. Westerly winds develop in the wake of the low
with with gusty flow along the eastern waters with the low center
nearing Nunivak island.

&&

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Sat through Tue)...The
pattern will start to "feel" much more like traditional Alaska
Fall as we head into the long term portion of the forecast. Models
have sorted out some of the discrepancies over the past few days
and are now in much better agreement through the weekend. The
ridge of high pressure from the Bering will drift south and set up
shop over the southern Gulf of AK. This will leave the southern
half of the state in zonal flow and open to systems/moisture
moving in from the west.

The low pressure center that will push the front through SW and
Southcentral AK on Fri will itself follow a similar track on Sat.
This system will keep things cloudy and showery. Then a slightly
stronger system will roll up into the area along the Alaska
Peninsula on Sun. With broad and fairly deep SW flow, this pattern
should make for more steady rain Sun and Mon.

By early next week, the models really being to diverge, which
leads to decreasing forecast confidence. The primary feature that
will drive the synoptic pattern is the ridge of high pressure
centered near 150W. Some models show this feature building back
over mainland AK and bringing another period of dry (and
potentially sunny) weather by mid-week. But other models keep the
ridge flatter and allow more energy to spill over the top. This
set-up would spell continue active weather (rain, clouds, seasonal
temperatures) across Southern AK. Thus, for this latter portion
of the forecast, we have elected to make few changes until there
is more clarity.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 173-177 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH/AH
LONG TERM...MSO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1034 AM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

AKZ121-211845-
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer,
and Cooper Landing
1034 AM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...Skilak Glacier Dammed Lake is Releasing...

Residents along the Kenai River downstream of Skilak Lake should be
aware of rising water through Saturday. The Skilak Glacial Lake
started releasing on September 14, and is forecast to crest early
Saturday at bankfull levels (action stage). Water levels on the
Kenai River downstream of Skilak Lake are expected to rise an
additional 1 to 2 feet from current levels. Water levels on the
Kenai River at Soldotna are expected to rise an additional foot.
Waters are then expected to fall on Sunday after the release is
completed.

The previous release of the lake occurred October 2016. Comparing
aerial reconnaissance of the Skilak Glacier Lake on August 25,
2018 to aerial reconnaissance before the 2016 release shows that
the lake volumes of both releases are similar.