Gale Warning 484, NWS Anchorage, AK

352 
FZAK62 PAFC 192335
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201315-
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Aleutians moves to the eastern Bering Thu
night. The associated 1004 mb low moves to 53N 179E Thu morning
and then moves to 60N 172W at 990 mb Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.TONIGHT...S to E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt except becoming W up to 20 kt after
midnight S of 56N. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKDT Wed Sep 19 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

711 
FZAK62 PAFC 201143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210045-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 mb low at 51N 177W moves to 58N 178W at 992 mb by Fri
morning and then to 60N 170W at 983 mb by Sat morning.  

$$

PKZ411-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TODAY...S wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 15 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

539 
FZAK62 PAFC 202335
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211315-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1001 mb low at 55N 179W moves to 59N 174W at 983 mb Fri
afternoon and then moves to 62N 167W at 987 mb Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 kt, increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind becoming S 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 to 15 ft. Areas of fog.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Areas of fog.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

131 
FZAK62 PAFC 211143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220130-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 low at 59N 177W moves to 61N 169W at 983 mb by Sat morning
and then moves inland near 62N 164W at 986 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad and weak mid-level ridge stretching over the South
Mainland that allowed for the development of fog and stratus over
much of the area overnight is also limiting it's dissipation this
afternoon. This is allowing for widespread cloudy skies, with
temperatures falling back towards seasonal normals. Ridging also
continues over the Central Bering Sea, which has allowed for
extensive fog and stratus from the Central Aleutians into the
Pribilof Islands. Along the western edge of the ridge is a gale
force front, which brought rain and gusty southerly winds to the
Western Bering/Aleutians today. The last feature of note is an
upper level trough spinning over the Bering Strait, which is
tracking very slowly to the east and is expected to bring rain to
the Southwest on Wednesday as it continues on this track.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Most of the issues from the models continue to focus on the track
of the upper level low currently over the Bering Strait. This is a
feature the models have been struggling with the placement on
since late last week, but there is finally good consensus that
this low will take a much more northward track through the
interior as initially expected. Just 24 hours ago all of the
guidance except the GFS had trended much further south with this
low, bringing rainfall and cooler air into the South Mainland as
it descended into Southcentral. Since then however all of the
guidance has trended back towards the outlier GFS solution of
keeping the upper low center well north of the AOR. As a result
confidence is increasing that this system will primarily impact
the Kuskokwim Valley/Delta as well as the Northern Susitna Valley,
while areas further south look to remain generally dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR CIG's are expected to continue for much of this
evening as there is little forcing available to help mix it out.
These ceilings will likely fall during the overnight hours as more
stable air develops, possibly to as low as IFR, however much of
the guidance keeps ceilings at a low end MVFR at worst. An upper
level disturbance approaching the area wednesday morning will
then improve conditions to VFR for the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Not much has changed in the past 24 hours as a weak upper-level
ridge remains parked over the Talkeetna Mountains, surrounded by
three upper-level lows. Subsidence underneath the ridge has
provided some clearing from the Talkeetna and Chugach Ranges east
through the Copper River Basin while instability and moisture on
the periphery of the ridge is helping to produce a few isolated
evening showers. Conversely, a weak boundary associated with an
approaching shortwave kept a low blanket of clouds draped from the
Cook Inlet north through the Susitna Valley. The pattern will
being to progress tonight as the upper-level low to the north
moves toward the region, advancing both the ridge and shortwave
eastward. Clouds and showers will be on the increase again tonight
with the passage of the wave. Most of the shower activity will
stay confined to the higher terrain, however, as this system is
rather moisture starved.

A second round of clouds and widely scattered showers will occur
overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the upper-level low makes its
closest approach to the region, swinging yet another shortwave
across Southcentral as it does. This system will quickly lift to
the northeast Thursday night as a ridge builds in behind it. Any
clearing with this ridge will only be temporary, however, as a
front associated with a deepening area of low pressure in the
central Bering pushes toward the region from the southwest. The
southwest flow ahead of the front will usher in plenty of
moisture, with clouds and rain overspreading the region for
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Friday)

Isolated showers will continue to through tomorrow morning, as a
pair of disturbances aloft interact with abundant low-level
moisture, with the best coverage being seen through the evening
as daytime heating boosts instability somewhat. Then, a much
stronger disturbance will pass by to our north, with strong vort
maxes crossing northern portions of the area, helping to increased
ascent (lift) for the region. This will cause shower coverage to
increase during the day and continue into Thursday, especially
north of the Nushagak Hills, as this region will experience better
forcing.

Then on Friday, widespread rainfall will develop by late Friday
morning along the coast, spreading inland as the front comes
ashore during the afternoon hours. Some of this rainfall may be
moderate to locally heavy at times, as the atmosphere will already
be pre-conditioned with high water values, with the next surge
during this time possible having a weak tropical connection.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Friday)

A change in the pattern will commence in the next 24 hours, as a
strong ridge of high pressure across the central Bering and
Aleutians today gets flattened by a strong disturbance from
Eastern Russia rounding the top of it and then crosses into
central portions of the state. Additionally, disturbances along a
frontal boundary in western portions of the chain/Bering will help
kick it off to the east some as it weakens. This will then open
the door for systems to race north into the Bering from the North
Pacific over the next few days.

So here's what to expect for your local conditions. Patchy fog
should develop once again overnight across most of the region, as
relatively light winds, high moisture content, and warm advection
aloft helps this develop. A frontal boundary out west will keep
showers across western portions of the area, with winds decreasing
below gales this evening. Then on Wednesday, as the ridge flattens
as described above, the western front will accelerate across
northern and central portions of the sea, while stalling near the
Aleutians, as it becomes parallel to the flow aloft and weakens.
Showers will also spread east but they'll decrease in coverage as
we go through the day, due to the loss of surface convergence
along the decaying front.

Your next weather maker quickly races into the region for Thursday
morning, as surface low pressure tracks from near Adak during the
morning, to just northwest of the Pribilof Islands by Friday
morning as it strengthens. Widespread rainfall, some of it
moderate to locally heavy at times, will sweep north and east
along its associated warm and cold fronts during this time, with
sustained gale force winds accompanying the cold front for the
western to central Aleutians and southern Bering.

By Friday evening, the two surface fronts will merge as the
occlusion process begins, with widespread rainfall continuing.
However, this is when winds will decrease to below gales for the
eastern Bering and AKPEN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7...Sat through Tue)...The
pattern will start to "feel" much more like traditional Alaska
Fall as we head into the long term portion of the forecast. Models
have sorted out some of the discrepancies over the past few days
and are now in much better agreement through the weekend. The
ridge of high pressure from the Bering will drift south and set up
shop over the southern Gulf of AK. This will leave the southern
half of the state in zonal flow and open to systems/moisture
moving in from the west.

The low pressure center that will push the front through SW and
Southcentral AK on Fri will itself follow a similar track on Sat.
This system will keep things cloudy and showery. Then a slightly
stronger system will roll up into the area along the Alaska
Peninsula on Sun. With broad and fairly deep SW flow, this pattern
should make for more steady rain Sun and Mon.

By early next week, the models really being to diverge, which
leads to decreasing forecast confidence. The primary feature that
will drive the synoptic pattern is the ridge of high pressure
centered near 150W. Some models show this feature building back
over mainland AK and bringing another period of dry (and potentially
sunny) weather by mid-week next week. But other models keep the
ridge flatter and allow more energy to spill over the top. This
set-up would spell continued active weather (rain, clouds,
seasonal temperatures) across Southern AK. Thus, for this latter
portion of the forecast, we have elected to make few changes until
there is more clarity.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...MSO