Gale Warning 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

908 
FZAK51 PAFC 031219
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-040115-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 mb low 140 nm south of Middleton Island exits the Gulf to 
the south tonight and remains in the North Pacific at 997 mb 
through Sat night. A ridge of high pressure approaches the western
Gulf Sat night.

$$

PKZ119-040115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-040115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-040115-
Resurrection Bay-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher winds and seas south of
Caines Head. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-040115-
Prince William Sound-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-040115-
Port Valdez-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-040115-
Valdez Narrows-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-040115-
Valdez Arm-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-040115-
Passage Canal-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-040115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-040115-
Barren Islands East-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 40 kt, except NW 30 kt toward the 
Barren Islands. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-040115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-040115-
Chiniak Bay-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-040115-
Marmot Bay-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-040115-
Shelikof Strait-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-040115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-040115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-040115-
Kachemak Bay-
419 AM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

051 
FZAK51 PAFC 032356
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041230-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 mb low 225 NM SE of Kodiak will weaken to 994 mb while 
moving to 500 NM SW of Sitka Sat afternoon, sliding further south 
on Sun. A ridge of high pressure will build across the western Gulf 
through the period.

$$

PKZ119-041230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041230-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041230-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041230-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041230-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041230-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming N variable 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041230-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041230-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041230-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041230-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041230-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Patchy morning fog.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041230-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Fri Aug 3 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 AM AKDT Thu Aug 2 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low centered over Saint Matthew Island is visible
on water vapor imagery with the leading front pushing across the
center of the state this morning. At the surface, low level
stratus and foggy conditions persist over much of the Bering and
western coastal areas. Just south of this low, a strong upper
level jet, reinforced by a ridge in the North Pacific, has values
maxing out near 140 knots and is creating a wide swath of zonal
flow and pushing moisture on shore. In response, radar imagery
indicates rain is falling across much of southwest Alaska and the
AKPEN this morning, moving east towards Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, model solutions are in good agreement with the large
synoptic scale pattern through the weekend. The main challenge in
the short-term will be timing of precipitation as a series of
shortwave troughs are generated across Southcentral in response to
the Saint Matthew Island low traversing the state and moving into
the Gulf by Fri morning. By Sat morning, models are hinting at a
Kamchatka low moving into the western Bering, however this remains
contingent upon the strength of the North Pacific ridge. Stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A front moving up the Cook Inlet will bring rain and MVFR
ceilings to the airport this morning. As the low center moves into
the Gulf later this morning, increased cross barrier flow should
help to dry the low levels out some bringing ceilings up to low
VFR levels, though rain should persist through tonight. Winds
should remain fairly light for the period switching from
southwesterly to northerly as downsloping kicks in later this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper low currently centered over the northern Bering Sea will
drop rapidly southeast, reaching Kodiak Island early Friday
morning and then racing across the Gulf through Thursday
afternoon. Rain will cover most of Southcentral through tonight as
this low has good dynamics and moisture associated with it. Also,
winds will approach Gale force in the northern Gulf as a strong
surface low forms ahead of the upper low later today, which will
then fall behind the upper low later tonight and Friday. Upper
level high pressure will build over the area on Friday in the wake
of the low leading to drying and warming conditions. Low level
offshore flow will also be fairly strong on Friday due to the
surface low in the Gulf. The offshore flow will weaken Friday
night as the surface low moves south.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A more progressive weather pattern has set up across much of
Bering and southwest Mainland, with a fairly strong zonal jet
over the southern Bering and a ridge beginning to amplify over
the western and central Aleutians/Bering. This pattern features a
series of quick-moving troughs and fronts, with the first wave
continuing wet and cloudy conditions over the area as the wave
tracks through the southwest mainland this morning. Rainy and
cloudy conditions will persist through Friday morning as the upper
low over the northern Bering and its surface low counterpart
dives southeast across the southwest Mainland. Conditions improve
briefly for Friday as high pressure builds over the southwest
mainland. This will be short-lived, however, as a weak warm front
approaches the forecast area Friday night with increasing clouds
and a chance of rain for the start of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The active pattern set up across much of the Bering and Aleutians
will remain in place through the weekend. The vertically stacked
low will begin to dive southeastward along the southwest coast and
enter the western gulf by Friday morning. By this afternoon, a
surface low will track west of the western Aleutians, with its
associated front bringing gale-force gusts and rain to the
western Aleutians and Bering through late Friday morning. The
north Pacific ridge begins to build northward and amplify slightly
over much of the southern Bering and Aleutians by Friday
afternoon. This feature will persist over the area into the
weekend, yielding stratus and fog to develop over parts of the
Aleutian chain and Bering sea. Gusty winds along the eastern
Aleutians and AKPen are expected to increase tonight under the
northwesterly flow pattern and persist through late Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
Beginning this weekend, a stagnant pattern will begin to setup as
a cutoff low from the Gulf moves southward into the North Pacific
and becomes nearly stationary. This will allow for a ridge of
high pressure to ride up along a broad trough that will setup over
the Northern Mainland, providing persistent zonal flow for most
of the Bering and South Mainland into early next week. This will
allow for a series of frontal systems from the Bering to move
through the South Mainland for later this weekend into the early
next week, allowing for a wet start to next week for most areas.

By the middle of next week there uncertainty begins to develop
with how deep a trough diving from Eastern Russia will move into
the Bering. This will erode away the ridging that will setup over
the Bering and allow for continued active and likely wet weather
for most of the area into the later portions of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 132 178 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/KVP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...DEK