Gale Warning 427, NWS Anchorage, AK

212 
FZAK52 PAFC 132313
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141215-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low 120 NM south of Nunivak Island will weaken to 1009 
mb near Nunivak Island Sat afternoon then dissipate as it moves 
inland Sun morning. A 1011 mb low near Adak will be a 1009 mb low 
near Sitkinak Sat afternoon. A 1008 MB low 360 NM southwest of Attu 
will weaken to 1018 MB 60 NM south of Atka Sat afternoon then 
continue east and dissipate by Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ150-141215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141215-
Bristol Bay-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW overnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141215-
Unalaska Bay-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ172-141215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141215-
Adak to Kiska-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141215-
Kiska to Attu-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
313 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt overnight. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Aloft, a complex double-barrel low has taken hold in the Bering,
extending a deep long-wave trough over the eastern Aleutians. The
jet stream at 300 mb (30,000 ft AGL), is skirting the southern
edge of the Aleutian chain with the strongest jet stream sitting
on the backside of that trough. The placement of the jet stream is
supporting a deepening of the low. These features, in combination
with a surface front, are creating a swath of cloud cover over
the central Bering and central Aleutians which can be seen in
satellite imagery.

Ahead of the front there is a a weak ridging pattern over the
Gulf of Alaska which provided clearer skies this afternoon over
southern Alaska. However, because of a short wave passing through
that ridge and day time heating from yesterday, a pocket of
clouds has formed over night over Southcentral. As the ridge
continues to move eastward, the front is entering the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska and the clouds are creeping in. These
factors signal the immanent approach of the front into
Southcentral and yet another weather pattern change.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are is good agreement today in regards to the low
pressure in the Bering. On Saturday that cohesive nature begins to
drift as the NAM, EC, and GFS begin to diverge in the placement
of the low. While the general location is similar, the NAM is
migrating further north along the West Coast Saturday afternoon
while the GFS and EC straggle behind. While the complexity in the
northern low increases, a second low moves in, skimming the
Aleutian chain. With this system, the models are also in
generally good agreement through Sat, but then things start to
take a turn for the worse. As the second low absorbs the energy
from the first, it moves into the Gulf of Alaska and the GFS jets
to the east while the EC and NAM stall slightly along the western
Gulf coast. Ultimately on Sunday evening, the models come full
circle and come back to a similar position in the northeastern
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Friday through Sunday)...
The gale force front beginning to enter the Western Gulf will
bring cloud cover, coastal rain, and gusty gap winds back to the
region the finish the work week. This front will first affect the
Kodiak Island area this morning with widespread rain and gusty
easterly winds before spreading northward this evening. This will
tighten the pressure gradient along the Chugach Mountains enough
to produce strong winds to Turnagain Arm, as well as gusty winds
to the Anchorage Bowl and the Knik and Copper River Valley's. Rain
will initially be limited through this evening to the Gulf Coast
and Southern Kenai Peninsula, as deep southeasterly flow will
produce widespread downsloping for the rest of the Kenai into the
Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska Valley. Chances for rainfall will then
increase in these areas on Saturday as the cross-barrier flow
begins to diminish and the shortwave passes overhead.

An active weekend weather pattern will then continue into Sunday
as another low quickly moves into the Gulf, but on a much more
southerly track. The good news for most of Southcentral with this
different low track is that rainfall chances should generally be
limited to early in the day Sunday as drier offshore flow will
develop behind it by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Cool and rainy conditions will spread back over the southwest
mainland today as the Bering front pushes inland, with the
steadiest rain remaining over Greater Bristol Bay through late
tonight. A showery regime will linger through Saturday in broad
cyclonic flow as the parent upper low skirts the Bristol Bay
coast. Northwest flow will then yield drier conditions Saturday
night into Sunday as the low departs into the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad, elongated low currently centered near the Pribilof
Islands will keep a showery regime focused over the eastern half
of the Bering Sea through Saturday morning before that system
shifts eastward into the Gulf. In the meantime, another weak North
Pacific disturbance will race eastward across the Aleutian chain,
providing another quick shot of rain from Kiska this morning to
the Akpen by early Saturday morning. More benign conditions will
settle over the region later on Saturday as an upper level ridge
builds over the western Bering and puts the eastern Bering in dry
northwest flow for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A progressive pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The
long term forecast period begins Sunday evening and commences with
a longwave trough spanning from the Yukon Territory to the Gulf
Of Alaska and ridging over the Central Aleutians. By Tuesday both
the GFS and the ECMWF depict a second trough pushing out of
Russian and into the Western Bering and Western Aleutians. This
new low will bring the ridge over Southcentral AK and Prince
William Sound Wednesday and Thursday. If this solution pans out,
anticipate widespread subsidence and expect a warming trend for
the Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su valleys.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 130.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...PS