Gale Warning 426, NWS Anchorage, AK

984 
FZAK51 PAFC 132340
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141230-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front extends from the low over the eastern Bering Sea across the 
Barren islands southeast to the southern Gulf of Alaska and will 
move through the Gulf of Alaska by Sat morning. A 1011 mb low near 
Adak will become a 1009 mb low 60 NM southwest of Akhiok Sat 
afternoon then strengthen to 1004 mb 60 NM south of Cape Suckling Sun
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-141230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt except SE 30 kt near the coast. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft 
building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt 
after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141230-
Resurrection Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141230-
Prince William Sound-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141230-
Port Valdez-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141230-
Valdez Narrows-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141230-
Valdez Arm-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141230-
Passage Canal-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt...except variable wind 10 kt toward the 
Barren Islands. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141230-
Barren Islands East-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141230-
Chiniak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141230-
Marmot Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141230-
Shelikof Strait-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141230-
Kachemak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft subsiding. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

126 
FZAK51 PAFC 141158
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150100-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1014 mb low 55 nm south of Seward will dissipate tonight. A 
1009 mb Bering low will move to 70 nm southwest of Akhiok this 
afternoon then it will move to 80 nm southeast of Middleton Island 
at 1006 mb Sun evening. The low will then exit into the 
northeastern Gulf Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ119-150100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt diminishing
to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft...except 10 ft along the coast.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt...except NE 20 kt along the coast in the
morning. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150100-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150100-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 30 kt, then diminishing to 20 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150100-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150100-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150100-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150100-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150100-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt...except NE 20 kt toward the Barren Islands in
the morning. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt except E 15 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150100-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150100-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 3 ft
subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150100-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150100-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
714 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The radar is quiet today following a soggy period over
Southcentral. A high deck of clouds is riding the northwest flow
over Kodiak Island, Southwest Alaska, and the southern end of the
Kenai Peninsula signaling a brief period under control of high
pressure. A sunshine warning is in place for Prince William Sound.

Aloft, northwest flow is in charge of Southcentral with the jet
entrance region moving into the Susitna Valley. An upper-level
trough covers the Bering in a sharp, closed pattern.

At the surface, low pressure is hot on the ridge's heels and is
currently west of the Pribilofs. It's stronger partner in the
North Pacific is just loping by the Aleutians. The combination is
creating gusty winds and rain over the AK Pen west to the central
Chain where only satellites sense the precipitation.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models began the day in lock-step and continue through Friday in
excellent agreement. A second low appears south of Adak by 00z
Saturday. While there's agreement in the strength of this low, the
NAMs position is jumping around while the GFS is consistently
slower.

In any case, this low is absorbed by the Bering Sea low by early
Saturday morning as it passes South of the AK Pen. Another low
moves into the western Chain Saturday morning with similar timing
issues into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue through Friday. Gusty southeast winds
will develop by Friday afternoon and persist into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weak ridge over the southern mainland will be pushed east in
response to the incoming front associated with the Bering Sea low
beginning Friday afternoon. In advance of this front, the ridge
will sharpen along the North Gulf Coast resulting in an
isallobaric push typical through the Chugach Mountains Friday.
Thus we anticipate an increase in the Turnagain Arm wind and wind
across the Hillside, although not the strong winds we have
recently seen. This will also result in southerly wind pushing up
along the Copper River Friday afternoon. A frontal low forms in
the Barren island area late Friday that will result in the wind
turning down Cook Inlet Friday afternoon. The brief period of
sunny skies over the southern mainland will yield to another round
of clouds and areas of showers or rain. Along the coastal side of
the mountains expect rain to sweep in beginning Friday morning
across Kodiak Island than spread to the Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound region through Friday evening. On the leeward side
the initial down slope will keep conditions drier, however, rain
or showers will be likely over the Cook Inlet region with more
of a scattered showers regime up into the Susitna Valley and into
the Copper River Basin. as we move into Saturday the low both
aloft and at the surface moves into the Prince William Sound
area, thus the down slope influence will end and we should see
more widespread showers across the southern mainland Saturday. The
upper low then moves off to the east Sunday, however, an upper
level trough swings through the Susitna Valley, Copper River
Basin, Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound Sunday. This will
keep the threat of rain and showers up through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
After pleasant weather across SW Alaska today, the region will
see a return to cooler and wetter conditions. Low pressure
spinning across the Bering Sea has an attendant weather front that
will move across the AKPEN tonight, and into the mainland into
the morning hours. Rain and wind will spread through the region
with the front and persist through Friday evening. As the Bering
Sea low slowly moves across the area, fairly unsettled showers
will linger until late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level low over the northwestern Bering Sea will phase
with a low that is moving out of the North Pacific late tonight.
This merged low will take until Saturday to move east of the
Bering. Cold air advection behind the departing system isn't
overly strong, and weak convective showers aren't looking too
likely. On the heels of this system is another developing low that
is currently spinning south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. This will
bring another chance of rain across the Aleutian chain through
late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A progressive pattern is on tap for this forecast period. The
long term forecast period begins Sunday evening and commences with
a longwave trough spanning from the Yukon Territory to the Gulf
Of Alaska and ridging over the Central Aleutians. By Tuesday both
the GFS and the ECMWF depict a second trough pushing out of
Russian and into the Western Bering and Western Aleutians. This
new low will bring the ridge over Southcentral AK and Prince
William Sound Wednesday and Thursday. If this solution pans out,
anticipate widespread subsidence and expect a warming trend for
the Anchorage Metro Area and the Mat-Su valleys.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 173.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SS
LONG TERM...PS