Gale Warning 425, NWS Anchorage, AK

311 
FZAK52 PAFC 122339
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131300-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low 350 nm W of St. Paul and a 1003 mb low 175 nm south 
of St Paul merge to form a 998 mb low near St. Paul tonight. This
complex low then moves to 100 nm NE of St. Paul at 1000 mb Fri 
night. A 1012 mb low 250 nm southwest of Attu Fri evening moves to
50 nm south of Adak at 1018 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-131300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131300-
Bristol Bay-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131300-
Unalaska Bay-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131300-
Adak to Kiska-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131300-
Kiska to Attu-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-131300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

891 
FZAK52 PAFC 131208
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-140115-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low 55 nm east of St. Paul will move to 110 nm 
northeast of St. Paul at 1004 mb Sat morning. The low will then 
dissipate near Cold Bay at 1015 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-140115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-140115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ160-140115-
Bristol Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-140115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt except SW 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-140115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-140115-
Unalaska Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ172-140115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ173-140115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ174-140115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-140115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ176-140115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-140115-
Adak to Kiska-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-140115-
Kiska to Attu-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-140115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-140115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-140115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-140115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
408 AM AKDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low across southwestern Alaska continues to weaken
as it slides to the southeast. Farther to the west is a deepening
upper level low that is diving south into the Bering Sea.
Sandwiched between these two features is a building ridge that is
advancing to the east. At the surface and beneath the southwestern
AK low is a weakening surface low that has moved into the MatSu
Valley this morning. Rain showers were a mainstay with this
feature and continue to move out of the coastal areas and deep
inland as the afternoon wears on. Areas that managed to clear out,
with some blue sky, have destabilized enough to have kick off
some showers that are moving to the northeast. Across the YK
Delta, showers associated with a weakening surface feature
continue to dissipate.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term with their handling
and depiction of the low moving southeast out of the area. They
are also in lock step with heights building and the Bering ridge
moving east. Differences really begin to show after about day
two, and how a deepening low that is dropping into the Bering will
phase with another low moving north out of the North Pacific. As
has been the trend for the last few days, the EC does not phase
the two systems, but instead rockets one across the Gulf of
Alaska. Given the fact that the operational EC doesn't have any
resemblance to the ensemble members, that solution will be
considered an outlier and not used. The UKMET has fallen into line
with the GFS, NAM and Canadian models and all show similar solutions
through day three.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light southerly wind will persist
through the period. Showers will come and go through the evening
but be generally tapering off.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The upper level trough over Southcentral Alaska will continue to
push off to the east overnight. Showers will diminish around the
area as it exits. Ridging will then build in Thursday from the
southwest clearing out some of the cloud cover with only some
light showers remaining over the mountains. On Friday, a front
will approach Southcentral Alaska from the southwest; first
tracking through Kodiak Island and then to the Kenai Peninsula.
Rain and wind will accompany the front bringing the highest
amounts of rain to the north Gulf coast. The upper level low
supporting the front looks to move over the Gulf Saturday which
will result in continued rain for Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clouds and showers will diminish in coverage overnight as the
weakening upper-level low continues its slow trek toward the
southern mainland. Shortwave ridging currently centered over the
Aleutians will advance over southwest Alaska for tomorrow. This
will provide a brief respite from the unsettled weather as skies
continue to clear and daytime high temperatures rebound back
toward seasonal normals. Any return to more summer-like weather,
however, will be short-lived. A low will cross the eastern
Aleutians and phase with a second low dropping south into the
central Bering which will swing a band of widespread rain along
occluded front across the AKpen and into the southwest AK Thursday
evening. Gusty southeasterly winds are also expected ahead and
along the front through the gaps of the Alaska/Aleutian ranges
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. The weak onshore flow
behind the front will keep things cool and wet to start the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern Aleutians brought
some breaks from the clouds and showers to locations east of
Nikolski today. This ridge will continue its eastward trek
tonight. As it does, a southerly flow will develop ahead of the
next system developing in the North Pacific south of Shemya,
spreading clouds back over the central and eastern Aleutians
starting in the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, this system
crosses the Aleutians and begins to merge with a second low diving
south from eastern Russia. This will produce widespread rain over
the Aleutians and central Bering. Southerly winds will increase
for Thursday, approaching small craft advisory level as the lows
merge and strengthen. As the system slides east, colder air
wrapping around underneath the low will produce another shot of
westerly small-craft winds for the central Aleutians Thursday
night into Friday. Farther west, the persistent fog across the
western Bering should begin to scour out overnight as the eastern
Russia low dives south. Clouds and showers will remain across much
of the the Bering through Friday night as the low tracks toward
Bristol Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast periods begins Saturday evening with a
mobile shortwave trough tracking east across the Gulf of Alaska
and a broader longwave trough over northern Alaska. With ridging
building over the western Bering Sea, this pattern will be
promoting a general northwest flow pattern aloft. Showers/rain
associated with the Gulf low will be moving east through the
Copper River Basin through Sunday. However, the shortwaves moving
into Southern Alaska in northwest flow will keep at least some
clouds and rain/shower chances through Monday and possibly even
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday uncertainty rises as the global models
keep hinting at upper ridging and warming building over Southern
Alaska, but differ on a trough moving east over the Bering and
just how quickly that feature begins impacting the region. For
now, expect moderate warming Wednesday and possibly Thursday, but
with some degree of uncertainty still.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 145.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...JA