Gale Warning 424, NWS Anchorage, AK

998 
FZAK51 PAFC 122302
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-131200-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure over the Gulf moves east through Fri morning. A 
front enters the western Gulf Fri morning and reaches the north  
Gulf coast Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-131200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ120-131200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ121-131200-
Resurrection Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-131200-
Prince William Sound-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-131200-
Port Valdez-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-131200-
Valdez Narrows-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-131200-
Valdez Arm-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-131200-
Passage Canal-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-131200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-131200-
Barren Islands East-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ132-131200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-131200-
Chiniak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-131200-
Marmot Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-131200-
Shelikof Strait-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt increasing to E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-131200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-131200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-131200-
Kachemak Bay-
302 PM AKDT Thu Jul 12 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to variable wind less than 10 
kt by midnight. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 foot. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low across southwestern Alaska continues to weaken
as it slides to the southeast. Farther to the west is a deepening
upper level low that is diving south into the Bering Sea.
Sandwiched between these two features is a building ridge that is
advancing to the east. At the surface and beneath the southwestern
AK low is a weakening surface low that has moved into the MatSu
Valley this morning. Rain showers were a mainstay with this
feature and continue to move out of the coastal areas and deep
inland as the afternoon wears on. Areas that managed to clear out,
with some blue sky, have destabilized enough to have kick off
some showers that are moving to the northeast. Across the YK
Delta, showers associated with a weakening surface feature
continue to dissipate.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement in the short term with their handling
and depiction of the low moving southeast out of the area. They
are also in lock step with heights building and the Bering ridge
moving east. Differences really begin to show after about day
two, and how a deepening low that is dropping into the Bering will
phase with another low moving north out of the North Pacific. As
has been the trend for the last few days, the EC does not phase
the two systems, but instead rockets one across the Gulf of
Alaska. Given the fact that the operational EC doesn't have any
resemblance to the ensemble members, that solution will be
considered an outlier and not used. The UKMET has fallen into line
with the GFS, NAM and Canadian models and all show similar solutions
through day three.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light southerly wind will persist
through the period. Showers will come and go through the evening
but be generally tapering off.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The upper level trough over Southcentral Alaska will continue to
push off to the east overnight. Showers will diminish around the
area as it exits. Ridging will then build in Thursday from the
southwest clearing out some of the cloud cover with only some
light showers remaining over the mountains. On Friday, a front
will approach Southcentral Alaska from the southwest; first
tracking through Kodiak Island and then to the Kenai Peninsula.
Rain and wind will accompany the front bringing the highest
amounts of rain to the north Gulf coast. The upper level low
supporting the front looks to move over the Gulf Saturday which
will result in continued rain for Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Clouds and showers will diminish in coverage overnight as the
weakening upper-level low continues its slow trek toward the
southern mainland. Shortwave ridging currently centered over the
Aleutians will advance over southwest Alaska for tomorrow. This
will provide a brief respite from the unsettled weather as skies
continue to clear and daytime high temperatures rebound back
toward seasonal normals. Any return to more summer-like weather,
however, will be short-lived. A low will cross the eastern
Aleutians and phase with a second low dropping south into the
central Bering which will swing a band of widespread rain along
occluded front across the AKpen and into the southwest AK Thursday
evening. Gusty southeasterly winds are also expected ahead and
along the front through the gaps of the Alaska/Aleutian ranges
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. The weak onshore flow
behind the front will keep things cool and wet to start the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern Aleutians brought
some breaks from the clouds and showers to locations east of
Nikolski today. This ridge will continue its eastward trek
tonight. As it does, a southerly flow will develop ahead of the
next system developing in the North Pacific south of Shemya,
spreading clouds back over the central and eastern Aleutians
starting in the overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, this system
crosses the Aleutians and begins to merge with a second low diving
south from eastern Russia. This will produce widespread rain over
the Aleutians and central Bering. Southerly winds will increase
for Thursday, approaching small craft advisory level as the lows
merge and strengthen. As the system slides east, colder air
wrapping around underneath the low will produce another shot of
westerly small-craft winds for the central Aleutians Thursday
night into Friday. Farther west, the persistent fog across the
western Bering should begin to scour out overnight as the eastern
Russia low dives south. Clouds and showers will remain across much
of the the Bering through Friday night as the low tracks toward
Bristol Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast periods begins Saturday evening with a
mobile shortwave trough tracking east across the Gulf of Alaska
and a broader longwave trough over northern Alaska. With ridging
building over the western Bering Sea, this pattern will be
promoting a general northwest flow pattern aloft. Showers/rain
associated with the Gulf low will be moving east through the
Copper River Basin through Sunday. However, the shortwaves moving
into Southern Alaska in northwest flow will keep at least some
clouds and rain/shower chances through Monday and possibly even
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Thursday uncertainty rises as the global models
keep hinting at upper ridging and warming building over Southern
Alaska, but differ on a trough moving east over the Bering and
just how quickly that feature begins impacting the region. For
now, expect moderate warming Wednesday and possibly Thursday, but
with some degree of uncertainty still.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 145.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
LONG TERM...JA