Gale Warning 418, NWS Anchorage, AK

977 
FZAK52 PAFC 071205
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080115-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 mb low 335 nm north of Kiska moves to 45 nm north of Kipnuk at
983 mb by Mon morning. Its front extends across the Northern Bering 
into Southwest Alaska with the trailing front over the Alaska 
Peninsula and Aleutians through Mon morning.


$$

PKZ150-080115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 7 ft in the morning building to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080115-
Bristol Bay-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Light winds early becoming SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080115-
Unalaska Bay-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080115-
Adak to Kiska-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080115-
Kiska to Attu-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft early building to 10 ft. Areas of dense fog. VSBY 1 NM or less at
times in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming N
30 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt.
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

973 
FZAK52 PAFC 072327
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081200-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 mb low 275 nm northwest of St. Paul will move to 110 nm 
northeast of St. Paul at 984 mb Sun morning. The low will then 
move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081200-
Bristol Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. E of Port Moller, SW wind 20 kt. 
Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. E of Port Moller, S wind 20 kt in the 
morning increasing to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081200-
Unalaska Bay-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 40 kt. 
Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081200-
Adak to Kiska-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081200-
Kiska to Attu-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Areas of fog.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming NW 30 kt. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming 
N 30 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 30 kt. 
Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge extending from a Russian Arctic high bisects Mainland
Alaska from the Northwest Capes through Southcentral. This ridge
continues to push warmer temperatures over many parts of the Mat-
Su valleys and Kenai Peninsula. Some low stratus/fog is trapped
underneath it along the North Gulf Coast, but should dissipate as
the ridge moves east through today. A short wave brought showers
and some thunderstorms overnight to sections closer to the AlCan
Border, Eastern Alaska Range and Copper River Valley. A front in
the Central Gulf decays through today. In the West, the extra-
tropical remains of TS Prapiroon is starting to merge into the
trough over the area. The result is low clouds, rain and gale-
force winds from the Western Aleutians into the Bering. There were
even thunderstorms and lightning observed over the Western Bering
last evening. Marine stratus and areas of dense fog continue to
plague the Southwest Alaska coastal zones.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement which results in fairly high
forecast confidence through the weekend. There are a few detailed
elements where there is some uncertainty. The first is with the
marine layer/stratus hanging around the coastlines, especially
over the North Gulf. Hand edits were mostly to handle it. Then there
is some slight disagreement in the amount of convection that will
develop around Southcentral this afternoon, especially over the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Models have trended slightly drier as
the ridge builds in, so we have trended PoPs down. Finally, there
are some slight timing differences with the large front pushing
from west to east late Sat-Sun. The NAM is slightly slower than
the other models, but in general, all signs continue to point
towards a major pattern shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will build over the area today. This will bring weak
offshore flow at the low levels and some warming of the
atmosphere. This will also suppress convection, with what few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop confined to the
mountains. On Saturday the ridge will begin to slide southeast as
a deep upper low approaches from the west. The surface flow will
become onshore and strengthen, with increasing southerly winds
across the area, and afternoon temperatures will cool a bit. The
thermal trough will shift inland, and some cooling aloft will
allow for the development of some afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River
basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)...
Today and much of Sat will see dry conditions with some sunshine
before the front brings the pattern change late Sat. Some low-
mid clouds continue to linger around interior areas with some low
marine stratus and patchy fog holding to the coastlines. These
should slowly break up today giving way to a fair amount of
sunshine. But then all the focus will shift to the approaching
front over the Bering.

Clouds will start to spill in through the day Sat with southeast
winds starting to ramp up through the afternoon. Rain will arrive
in earnest at the coastline mid-day Saturday and makes its way
quickly from west to east. By Sunday, the pattern change will be
felt all the way from the coast through the AK and Aleutian
Ranges. Expect markedly cooler temperatures, gusty SE to SW winds,
and widespread steady rain.

We are monitoring the potential for some high surf and possible
coastal erosion late Sun into Mon. As the low pressure system
moves inland near the Kuskokwim Bay, it will leave much of the
coastline exposed to long duration west-southwest flow. Tides are
relatively low during this time period, so this should help to
mitigate impacts. However, if timing aligns correctly, this could
bring high surf into coastal marine zones and shorelines Mon.
Mariners and coastal residents should continue to monitor the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)...
The Bering Sea will be where the pattern change for all of AK
begins. First, marine stratus and fog continue to hold on across
the Eastern Bering this morning. But rain and winds are already
starting for the Western and Central Aleutians. This will only
continue to increase as the upper 990mb low plows into the area.
Winds will climb to gale-force levels later today. The low will
sling the entire front across the domain by dawn Sat morning.
Winds will be southeast ahead of it, then shift to southwest.

By late Sat, another piece of energy will drop into the system
from Siberia. This will reinvigorate both winds and precipitation.
Expect a second round of gales to develop over the Central Bering
and track over the Eastern Aleutians by Sun afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There could
be some cumulus build up and showers developing over the
mountains this afternoon, but they should remain away from the
terminal.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...(from Thu afternoon AFD)

By Sunday, the large western vertically stacked low pressure
system will have moved over the eastern Bering with an associated
frontal system stretched across Southwest Alaska and into western
portions of Southcentral Alaska. Out ahead of the front, the
southeasterly pressure gradient will continue to increase through
Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing windy conditions to the
Copper River Basin, Knik Arm, Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm,
Eagle River Valley, Anchorage Hillside and other locations
favoring terrain channeled southeasterly winds. Precipitation will
continue to spread east Sunday night and Monday, impacting all
but the most downsloped portions of the Copper River Basin.

Numerous troughs rotating around the upper low along the Southwest
Alaska coast will continue to reinforce precipitation across
southern Alaska through midweek. By around Wednesday, model
differences begin to increase with the 12Z GFS and Canadian models
building a transient ridge into Southwest Alaska (though with
different timings), while the ECMWF keeps the pattern wet and
troughy. Tend to think persistent troughing is the more likely
outcome, though either way all the models return to a more active
west to southwesterly storm track through the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 174-177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KZ/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...JR