Gale Warning 414, NWS Anchorage, AK

727 
FZAK62 PAFC 071202
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080115-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 mb low at 57N 179E moves to 61N 164W at 983 mb by Mon morning.
Its front extends across the Northern Bering into Southwest Alaska 
with the trailing front over the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians 
through Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S of 57N...NW to W wind 20 to 35 kt. N of 57N...N to E wind
15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1
NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt except S wind 15 to 30 kt E of 175W 
during the evening. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft in the morning 
building to 9 to 15 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Areas of fog.
Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Areas of fog.
Widespread rain showers. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
402 AM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Patchy fog. VSBY 1
NM or less in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...S to W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK62 PAFC 072323
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081300-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low at 58N 178W will move to 58N 167W at 984 mb 
Sun morning. The low will then move inland over the 
Kuskokwim Delta Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt 
after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Areas of fog.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKDT Sat Jul 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

205 
FZAK62 PAFC 081159
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090045-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low at 58N 173W moves to 61N 163W at 990 mb for Tue 
morning. Its front wraps across the Northern Bering through Southwest
Alaska and trails south of the Aleutians to a 1011 mb low near 48N 
171E by Tue morning. A 1007 mb North Kamchatka low Mon morning moves 
to 56N 176E at 1008 mb by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY
1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM
or less.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY
1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Areas of fog. Rain.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N to W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 AM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S to NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

539 
FZAK62 PAFC 082323
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091300-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 984 mb low at 59N 166W will move inland over Bethel Mon afternoon.
The associated front will dissipate over the western Aleutians 
Mon night and continue moving east through Tue. Low pressure 
builds over the western Aleutians Mon morning through Tue. 

$$

PKZ411-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Areas of fog. VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. 
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming E up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Areas of fog.
VSBY 1 NM or less.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ridge extending from a Russian Arctic high bisects Mainland
Alaska from the Northwest Capes through Southcentral. This ridge
continues to push warmer temperatures over many parts of the Mat-
Su valleys and Kenai Peninsula. Some low stratus/fog is trapped
underneath it along the North Gulf Coast, but should dissipate as
the ridge moves east through today. A short wave brought showers
and some thunderstorms overnight to sections closer to the AlCan
Border, Eastern Alaska Range and Copper River Valley. A front in
the Central Gulf decays through today. In the West, the extra-
tropical remains of TS Prapiroon is starting to merge into the
trough over the area. The result is low clouds, rain and gale-
force winds from the Western Aleutians into the Bering. There were
even thunderstorms and lightning observed over the Western Bering
last evening. Marine stratus and areas of dense fog continue to
plague the Southwest Alaska coastal zones.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement which results in fairly high
forecast confidence through the weekend. There are a few detailed
elements where there is some uncertainty. The first is with the
marine layer/stratus hanging around the coastlines, especially
over the North Gulf. Hand edits were mostly to handle it. Then there
is some slight disagreement in the amount of convection that will
develop around Southcentral this afternoon, especially over the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Models have trended slightly drier as
the ridge builds in, so we have trended PoPs down. Finally, there
are some slight timing differences with the large front pushing
from west to east late Sat-Sun. The NAM is slightly slower than
the other models, but in general, all signs continue to point
towards a major pattern shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will build over the area today. This will bring weak
offshore flow at the low levels and some warming of the
atmosphere. This will also suppress convection, with what few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop confined to the
mountains. On Saturday the ridge will begin to slide southeast as
a deep upper low approaches from the west. The surface flow will
become onshore and strengthen, with increasing southerly winds
across the area, and afternoon temperatures will cool a bit. The
thermal trough will shift inland, and some cooling aloft will
allow for the development of some afternoon and evening
thunderstorms for portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River
basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)...
Today and much of Sat will see dry conditions with some sunshine
before the front brings the pattern change late Sat. Some low-
mid clouds continue to linger around interior areas with some low
marine stratus and patchy fog holding to the coastlines. These
should slowly break up today giving way to a fair amount of
sunshine. But then all the focus will shift to the approaching
front over the Bering.

Clouds will start to spill in through the day Sat with southeast
winds starting to ramp up through the afternoon. Rain will arrive
in earnest at the coastline mid-day Saturday and makes its way
quickly from west to east. By Sunday, the pattern change will be
felt all the way from the coast through the AK and Aleutian
Ranges. Expect markedly cooler temperatures, gusty SE to SW winds,
and widespread steady rain.

We are monitoring the potential for some high surf and possible
coastal erosion late Sun into Mon. As the low pressure system
moves inland near the Kuskokwim Bay, it will leave much of the
coastline exposed to long duration west-southwest flow. Tides are
relatively low during this time period, so this should help to
mitigate impacts. However, if timing aligns correctly, this could
bring high surf into coastal marine zones and shorelines Mon.
Mariners and coastal residents should continue to monitor the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3...Fri
through Sun)...
The Bering Sea will be where the pattern change for all of AK
begins. First, marine stratus and fog continue to hold on across
the Eastern Bering this morning. But rain and winds are already
starting for the Western and Central Aleutians. This will only
continue to increase as the upper 990mb low plows into the area.
Winds will climb to gale-force levels later today. The low will
sling the entire front across the domain by dawn Sat morning.
Winds will be southeast ahead of it, then shift to southwest.

By late Sat, another piece of energy will drop into the system
from Siberia. This will reinvigorate both winds and precipitation.
Expect a second round of gales to develop over the Central Bering
and track over the Eastern Aleutians by Sun afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There could
be some cumulus build up and showers developing over the
mountains this afternoon, but they should remain away from the
terminal.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...(from Thu afternoon AFD)

By Sunday, the large western vertically stacked low pressure
system will have moved over the eastern Bering with an associated
frontal system stretched across Southwest Alaska and into western
portions of Southcentral Alaska. Out ahead of the front, the
southeasterly pressure gradient will continue to increase through
Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing windy conditions to the
Copper River Basin, Knik Arm, Portage Valley and Turnagain Arm,
Eagle River Valley, Anchorage Hillside and other locations
favoring terrain channeled southeasterly winds. Precipitation will
continue to spread east Sunday night and Monday, impacting all
but the most downsloped portions of the Copper River Basin.

Numerous troughs rotating around the upper low along the Southwest
Alaska coast will continue to reinforce precipitation across
southern Alaska through midweek. By around Wednesday, model
differences begin to increase with the 12Z GFS and Canadian models
building a transient ridge into Southwest Alaska (though with
different timings), while the ECMWF keeps the pattern wet and
troughy. Tend to think persistent troughing is the more likely
outcome, though either way all the models return to a more active
west to southwesterly storm track through the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 174-177.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KZ/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...JR