Gale Warning 41, NWS Anchorage, AK

351 
FZAK52 PAFC 090032
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091330-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 952 mb low 40 nm southwest of Adak moves 180 nm southeast of
Adak at 969 mb Tue afternoon and then dissipates Wed morning. A 
second 975 mb low 350 nm southwest of Adak moves 280 nm southeast
of Adak at 965 mb Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-091330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt, Seas 18 ft building to 25 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 35 kt becoming S
20 kt after midnight, Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind
25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091330-
Bristol Bay-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091330-
Unalaska Bay-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091330-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft subsiding to 24 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091330-
Adak to Kiska-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091330-
Kiska to Attu-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt except NW 45 kt from Shemya W. Seas 20 ft.
Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.  Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
332 PM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

548 
FZAK52 PAFC 091300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100145-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 mb low 70 nm southwest of Adak moves to 100 nm east of Adak 
at 967 mb then remains nearly stationary and dissipates by Wed 
morning. A 971 mb low Wed morning at 300 nm southwest of Adak 
moves to 315 nm east of Adak at 960 mb by Thu morning. A 995 mb 
low at 325 nm south of Akhiok Wed morning moves to 140 nm south of
Akhiok and dissipates by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 24 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms
west of the Shumagin Islands through late morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100145-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, E wind 20 kt increasing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100145-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100145-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100145-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKST Tue Jan 9 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray north and east of
Saint Matthew Island.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level high over the mainland part of the state will build
in a little stronger over the next day. The jet stream is south of
the Aleutians but fueling the strong surface low and front that
is approaching them. This strong low will begin to weaken by
tomorrow as the main upper level low moves from the near the
Kamchatka Peninsula to the central Aleutians tomorrow making the
system vertically stacked.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Model agreement remains good through the middle of the week. The
big uncertainty for the next day or so in Southcentral AK will be
whether stratus or fog develops around Cook Inlet. The NAM is
hinting at this but is the only one. However, the NAM's higher
resolution is often the most accurate one for stratus around Cook
Inlet. The Arctic airmass moving into the region midweek will
likely bring in gusty gap winds and the NAM is indicating these
winds will persist for a number of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light winds will persist into Monday afternoon but should
start to increase from the north late Monday afternoon. With a
strong inversion in place over the area, there will be a risk of
low stratus (and possibly fog) developing after midnight tonight
as the mid level clouds dissipate. Stratus is more likely of the
two due to the inversion strength and the dry air.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An area of high pressure over Northern Alaska will shift south
tonight phasing out a weakening low over the Gulf of Alaska. This
will mean continued clearing from north to south across the region
this evening as drier air filters in. Clearing skies will promote
fog formation over the Cook Inlet/Anchorage region tonight and
tomorrow morning with some stratus already showing up on webcams
over South Anchorage this afternoon.

As high pressure builds in over Southcentral Monday and Tuesday,
an upper level trough will dig down from NW Canada across the
ALCAN border bringing strong northerly flow. The trough will draw
down frigid polar air from interior NW Canada into western parts
of Alaska, which will bleed into the Copper River Basin and
interior sections of Southcentral. This looks to be the coldest
air of the season so far with temperatures bottoming out well
below zero for the Mat-Su Valley and parts of Anchorage by
Wednesday morning. The coldest air will be located over the Copper
River Basin where temperatures will likely plummet into the -40's
F. The large thermal gradient between cold dry air in the
interior and relatively mild moist air near the coast will drive
strong northerly gap winds across the region, including through
the Matanuska Valley, Valdez, and out of the Copper River Delta,
where winds in these locations could gust upwards of 50 mph by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure over mainland Alaska along with increasing low
pressure over the Bering with the next system approaching the
southern Bering, will generate some drier offshore flow over the
southwest Mainland tonight. With no real increase in 850 mb temps
and increased offshore flow, fog is not likely persist or
redevelop again overnight over much of the southwest Mainland.
With the clearing skies and a tightening pressure gradient across
the northern portions of the lower Kuskokwim Delta, colder air
will drain into the area from the north, helping to cool
temperatures for the Monday into Tuesday time frame. Our focus
then turns to the front pushing inland over the southwest Mainland
early Tuesday morning with precipitation developing along and
immediately ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A broad area of low pressure begins to retreat from the Bering, as
the next north Pacific low and its associated leading front begins
pushing through the central/eastern Aleutians and into the
southern Bering by tonight. This system is pretty similar to the
storm that impacted the region over the last few days. Overall,
look for a strongly occluded front to sweep eastward across the
chain, while the parent low stalls. Widespread precipitation, some
of which will be moderate to heavy in intensity will accompany
the front, with more showery type precipitation behind it and
closer to the area of low pressure.

Winds will rapidly increase along and ahead of the front. For the
land zones, current indications are these winds will remain below
headline criteria. For the coastal and offshore waters, storm
force winds are likely for west central portions of the Aleutian
waters and into the southern Bering Sea, with winds increasing to
gales elsewhere along the front and near the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The long term forecast period begins Tuesday night with a high
latitude blocking high over the interior and a broad upper trough
extending across the Pacific Ocean to the eastern Bering Sea. The
main jet energy will remain well to the south of the AOR with the
blocking high acting as the main dominant weather feature for
Alaska. Expect a return to colder than average mainland
temperatures, especially in prone low lying areas and basins. Any
precipitation will be relegated to coastal regions like Kodiak
and the North Gulf Coast through Wednesday night.

Thereafter, the North Pacific jet will begin to shift the overall
trough position farther eastward. This will eventually result in
increasing cyclogenesis and more southerly flow Thursday through
the weekend. There will be a noticeable uptick in frontal
progression northward with increasing chances of coastal
precipitation (probably turning to predominantly rain as it warms
up by the weekend). Inland areas will gradually warm up as well as
clouds increase and mid level temperatures warm dramatically.
Precipitation looks to remain low, however, as cross-barrier flow
will likely play a strong role with this pattern. This means
stormy weather is likely for the immediate coast Thursday and
beyond.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 173-175 178. Gales 150 160 165 170-172 177 179 180
                                   181 185 411-414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KVP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA