Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

980 
FZAK51 PAFC 081148
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090030-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A stationary front over the southwestern Gulf will weaken as it 
lifts to the northern Gulf Tue night through Wed. A second front 
will enter the southwestern Gulf Wed night out ahead of a 974 mb 
low 180 nm south of Sand Point. 

$$

PKZ119-090030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090030-
Resurrection Bay-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090030-
Prince William Sound-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090030-
Port Valdez-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090030-
Valdez Narrows-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090030-
Valdez Arm-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090030-
Passage Canal-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090030-
Barren Islands East-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
S of Dangerous Cape, SE wind 20 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090030-
Chiniak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090030-
Marmot Bay-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt toward morning. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft toward morning. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt shifting to W 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090030-
Shelikof Strait-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt...diminishing to NE 15 kt south end of 
the strait in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft...subsiding to 4 ft 
south end of the strait in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...North end of the strait, E wind 25 kt diminishing 
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after 
midnight. South end of the strait, Variable wind 10 kt. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090030-
Kachemak Bay-
348 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt during the evening. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

952 
FZAK51 PAFC 082338
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091245-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front over the Western Gulf slides across the Gulf and merges with
a 998 mb North Pacific low Wed morning then continues over the North
Gulf Coast through Thu afternoon. A second front enters the Western 
Gulf for Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-091245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091245-
Resurrection Bay-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming variable wind less than 10 kt by
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091245-
Prince William Sound-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091245-
Port Valdez-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091245-
Valdez Narrows-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091245-
Valdez Arm-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091245-
Passage Canal-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091245-
Barren Islands East-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, E wind 30 kt
becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091245-
Chiniak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091245-
Marmot Bay-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091245-
Shelikof Strait-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-091245-
Kachemak Bay-
338 PM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor imagery shows a closed low pressure system moving
over the western and central Aleutians. This is pulling in a large
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of the system in the eastern
Bering from the North Pacific. A shortwave trough over Southcentral
and the north Gulf coast is causing showers that will taper off
early today, leading to a brief dry and partly cloudy day for
southern Mainland.

To the west, strong southerly flow associated with the front
ahead of the Bering low pressure system extends from the western
Alaska Peninsula to the northern Bering. This occluded system is
already bringing rain and gales to the eastern Aleutians through
the Pribilofs. A cold air mass on the backside is bringing strong
northerly flow to the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in great agreement through mid week with the slow
progression of the storm system over the Bering. Only minor edits
were made for the morning package using the higher resolution of
the NAM Nest with some blending of the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through the next TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave trough will exit eastward through the
Copper River Basin this morning. A few showers will linger along
the western facing slopes of interior mountains with continued low
level instability and upslope flow. Decreasing clouds will likely
lead to some shallow patchy fog, especially in locations where
rain fell overnight. However, expect the sun to quickly burn off
any fog which does form. With a short-wave ridge building
overhead most of Southcentral can expect considerable sunshine,
warmer temperatures, and generally light winds.

As the short-wave ridge passes quickly by, southerly flow will
lift a warm front northwestward across the Gulf and Kodiak Island
late this afternoon through tonight, with very low level showers
transitioning to a stable light rain. At the same time, the very
large storm system along the Aleutians will track eastward, with
an upper level short-wave and surface occluded front slowly
tracking toward the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. This will
lead to strengthening winds and heavier rain overnight tonight
through Tuesday. Rain will also spread to the southern to eastern
Kenai Peninsula Tuesday. Deep and strong southeast (downslope)
flow will maintain dry conditions for the population centers,
though clouds will settle back overhead once again. Gap winds will
return on Tuesday, especially along Turnagain Arm, though pressure
gradients will favor winds bending southward down Cook Inlet, so
winds in the Anchorage Bowl will remain light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...
A brief dry and relatively calm (winds) period this morning will
quickly give way to an approaching front from the Eastern Bering.
A shortwave ridge is passing through the area this morning. But by
late this morning, another front will push into the area. This is
courtesy of an expansive low moving towards the Central Aleutians.
As the low slides east it will continue to push the low towards
the coast and eventually inland. The pressure gradient will
increase because of this feature, so expect increasing east to
southeast winds throughout the day. Temperatures have fallen
enough overnight that as precipitation starts along the YK-Delta
in the next few hours, it will be able to fall as snow. It looks
like the winds and warm air hold off long enough in this area that
a few inches of accumulation are possible. We do expect the snow
to be quite wet as temperatures are still at or slightly above
freezing, so we think this will limit any potential for blowing
snow.

By this evening, the front should slowly work its way inland
with some stronger winds and warm air. This should cause all the
precipitation to turn over to rain. Locations in the lee-side of
the mountains (Bethel, King Salmon, etc.) will only see a few
showers, while the rest of the area, especially SE facing slopes,
will see steady rain into Wed. The front will effectively stall
across the area and struggle to make much inland progress into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By late Tue evening, another shortwave
will move up along the boundary and enhance the winds and
precipitation once again.

Since freezing levels remain quite low and much of the
precipitation will hold west of Kalskag and Aniak today, the
hydrologic response from the weather to the Kuskokwim River should
be minimal. Thus, have opted to leave the Flood Warning as is.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
The dominant low is setting up shop across the region and will
control the weather for the next several days. The initial warm
front is occluding as it pushes through the Eastern Aleutians and
into the Alaska Peninsula. It continues to bring a healthy swath
of gale-force winds to these locations. On the backside of the
low, another vorticity maximum is working in tandem with some
colder air to bring storm-force winds to Shemya and the Western
Aleutians. The low itself will slowly drift east today, but the
central pressure and the winds will maintain strength for the most
part.

Later this evening, some rather cold (-34C) air at about 18,000'
will slide over the Central Bering. This will create a moderate
amount of instability and we have added some isolated
thunderstorms into many of the marine forecasts to account for
this.

There will be very little change to the forecast as we work
towards the middle of the week. Winds will slowly diminish as the
low fills and drifts west.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Sunday)...

The weather pattern on Wednesday starts out with a stalled front
aligned southeast to northwest from the central Bering into the
Barren Islands and the mouth of Cook Inlet and across much of
Southwest Alaska, making for a very wet day in those areas. Its
parent low is stalled out over the middle of the Bering about 100
miles west of the Pribilofs. With the exception of the Canadian,
the rest of the models agree the associated precipitation will
remain from Chenega westward, with relatively little precipitation
expected during the day in Prince William Sound or interior
Southcentral. A new northward- moving upper level wave finally
pushes the front northward into Prince William Sound and much of
the rest of the northern Gulf late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile over the Bering, the stalled out low will slowly move
south towards the central Aleutians Wednesday night, as it begins
to rotate around a new North Pacific low tracking northward
towards the southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak. Building ridging
over much of Southcentral will allow a much warmer air mass to
move in.

On Thursday, the north Pacific low will slow down as it
approaches the Alaska Peninsula due to the interaction of that low
with the one tracking south out of the Bering. The model
discrepancies continue to increase, but it seems likely by the end
of the day that Kodiak City will get into the associated rainfall,
as the low's front moves into the southern Gulf. The precipitation
along the north Gulf Coast will diminish to showers as the first
front on Wednesday dissipates. Thursday should be a mainly cloudy
day with scattered showers across Southwest Alaska, but shouldn't
be nearly as wet as Wednesday.

By Friday the model disagreements become even greater, with the
EC taking the new low north up the west Gulf Coast into the Alaska
Range, while the GFS, the older EC runs, and the previous
official forecast turn the low westward into either Bristol Bay or
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, bringing the
center near Cold Bay Friday afternoon. On this latter track, which
is the preferred once again, the associated strengthening front
will plow into the north Gulf Coast during the day Friday, which
despite the discrepancies in forecast low track, remain in good
agreement. Thus, nearly all of southern Mainland Alaska will have
a wet day on Friday, with the exception of the western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley, which due to
downsloping should only see isolated to scattered shower activity.

By Saturday and Sunday, the models become so divergent from each
other that little can be said about the forecast with any kind of
certainty, but the pattern looks to remain unsettled.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 130 131 155 165 170 172 174 175 176 177 178 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH/KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JW