Gale Warning 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

583 
FZAK52 PAFC 080752
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-082115-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 mb low 30 nm Southeast of Seguam Island loops to 250 nm
North of Adak at 980 mb for Wed afternoon. Its front wraps over 
the Western and Northern Bering into Western Alaska through Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-082115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-082115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas building to 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft except 15 ft from the Shumagin
Islands E.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-082115-
Bristol Bay-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-082115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-082115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and isolated 
thunderstorms.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-082115-
Unalaska Bay-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-082115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-082115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-082115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after
midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-082115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-082115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-082115-
Adak to Kiska-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-082115-
Kiska to Attu-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-082115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-082115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-082115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-082115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1152 PM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

642 
FZAK52 PAFC 081156
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090045-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 976 mb low 120 nm
southwest of St. George moves to 130 nm west of St. Paul at 979 mb 
by Wed morning and then to 180 nm northeast of Adak at 985 mb by Thu 
morning. A 976 mb low Wed afternoon at 450 nm south of Dutch Harbor 
moves to 180 nm south of Sand Point at 974 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas building to 18 ft except 14 ft from the 
Shumagin Islands E.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
Bristol Bay-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt by the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
Unalaska Bay-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt early. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
Adak to Kiska-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
Kiska to Attu-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 AM AKDT Tue May 8 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Mon May 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Water vapor imagery shows a closed low pressure system moving
over the western and central Aleutians. This is pulling in a large
fetch of subtropical moisture ahead of the system in the eastern
Bering from the North Pacific. A shortwave trough over Southcentral
and the north Gulf coast is causing showers that will taper off
early today, leading to a brief dry and partly cloudy day for
southern Mainland.

To the west, strong southerly flow associated with the front
ahead of the Bering low pressure system extends from the western
Alaska Peninsula to the northern Bering. This occluded system is
already bringing rain and gales to the eastern Aleutians through
the Pribilofs. A cold air mass on the backside is bringing strong
northerly flow to the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in great agreement through mid week with the slow
progression of the storm system over the Bering. Only minor edits
were made for the morning package using the higher resolution of
the NAM Nest with some blending of the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through the next TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level short-wave trough will exit eastward through the
Copper River Basin this morning. A few showers will linger along
the western facing slopes of interior mountains with continued low
level instability and upslope flow. Decreasing clouds will likely
lead to some shallow patchy fog, especially in locations where
rain fell overnight. However, expect the sun to quickly burn off
any fog which does form. With a short-wave ridge building
overhead most of Southcentral can expect considerable sunshine,
warmer temperatures, and generally light winds.

As the short-wave ridge passes quickly by, southerly flow will
lift a warm front northwestward across the Gulf and Kodiak Island
late this afternoon through tonight, with very low level showers
transitioning to a stable light rain. At the same time, the very
large storm system along the Aleutians will track eastward, with
an upper level short-wave and surface occluded front slowly
tracking toward the western Gulf and Kodiak Island. This will
lead to strengthening winds and heavier rain overnight tonight
through Tuesday. Rain will also spread to the southern to eastern
Kenai Peninsula Tuesday. Deep and strong southeast (downslope)
flow will maintain dry conditions for the population centers,
though clouds will settle back overhead once again. Gap winds will
return on Tuesday, especially along Turnagain Arm, though pressure
gradients will favor winds bending southward down Cook Inlet, so
winds in the Anchorage Bowl will remain light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Mon and Tue)...
A brief dry and relatively calm (winds) period this morning will
quickly give way to an approaching front from the Eastern Bering.
A shortwave ridge is passing through the area this morning. But by
late this morning, another front will push into the area. This is
courtesy of an expansive low moving towards the Central Aleutians.
As the low slides east it will continue to push the low towards
the coast and eventually inland. The pressure gradient will
increase because of this feature, so expect increasing east to
southeast winds throughout the day. Temperatures have fallen
enough overnight that as precipitation starts along the YK-Delta
in the next few hours, it will be able to fall as snow. It looks
like the winds and warm air hold off long enough in this area that
a few inches of accumulation are possible. We do expect the snow
to be quite wet as temperatures are still at or slightly above
freezing, so we think this will limit any potential for blowing
snow.

By this evening, the front should slowly work its way inland
with some stronger winds and warm air. This should cause all the
precipitation to turn over to rain. Locations in the lee-side of
the mountains (Bethel, King Salmon, etc.) will only see a few
showers, while the rest of the area, especially SE facing slopes,
will see steady rain into Wed. The front will effectively stall
across the area and struggle to make much inland progress into the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By late Tue evening, another shortwave
will move up along the boundary and enhance the winds and
precipitation once again.

Since freezing levels remain quite low and much of the
precipitation will hold west of Kalskag and Aniak today, the
hydrologic response from the weather to the Kuskokwim River should
be minimal. Thus, have opted to leave the Flood Warning as is.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Mon and
Tue)...
The dominant low is setting up shop across the region and will
control the weather for the next several days. The initial warm
front is occluding as it pushes through the Eastern Aleutians and
into the Alaska Peninsula. It continues to bring a healthy swath
of gale-force winds to these locations. On the backside of the
low, another vorticity maximum is working in tandem with some
colder air to bring storm-force winds to Shemya and the Western
Aleutians. The low itself will slowly drift east today, but the
central pressure and the winds will maintain strength for the most
part.

Later this evening, some rather cold (-34C) air at about 18,000'
will slide over the Central Bering. This will create a moderate
amount of instability and we have added some isolated
thunderstorms into many of the marine forecasts to account for
this.

There will be very little change to the forecast as we work
towards the middle of the week. Winds will slowly diminish as the
low fills and drifts west.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Wednesday through Sunday)...

The weather pattern on Wednesday starts out with a stalled front
aligned southeast to northwest from the central Bering into the
Barren Islands and the mouth of Cook Inlet and across much of
Southwest Alaska, making for a very wet day in those areas. Its
parent low is stalled out over the middle of the Bering about 100
miles west of the Pribilofs. With the exception of the Canadian,
the rest of the models agree the associated precipitation will
remain from Chenega westward, with relatively little precipitation
expected during the day in Prince William Sound or interior
Southcentral. A new northward- moving upper level wave finally
pushes the front northward into Prince William Sound and much of
the rest of the northern Gulf late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Meanwhile over the Bering, the stalled out low will slowly move
south towards the central Aleutians Wednesday night, as it begins
to rotate around a new North Pacific low tracking northward
towards the southern Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak. Building ridging
over much of Southcentral will allow a much warmer air mass to
move in.

On Thursday, the north Pacific low will slow down as it
approaches the Alaska Peninsula due to the interaction of that low
with the one tracking south out of the Bering. The model
discrepancies continue to increase, but it seems likely by the end
of the day that Kodiak City will get into the associated rainfall,
as the low's front moves into the southern Gulf. The precipitation
along the north Gulf Coast will diminish to showers as the first
front on Wednesday dissipates. Thursday should be a mainly cloudy
day with scattered showers across Southwest Alaska, but shouldn't
be nearly as wet as Wednesday.

By Friday the model disagreements become even greater, with the
EC taking the new low north up the west Gulf Coast into the Alaska
Range, while the GFS, the older EC runs, and the previous
official forecast turn the low westward into either Bristol Bay or
along the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula, bringing the
center near Cold Bay Friday afternoon. On this latter track, which
is the preferred once again, the associated strengthening front
will plow into the north Gulf Coast during the day Friday, which
despite the discrepancies in forecast low track, remain in good
agreement. Thus, nearly all of southern Mainland Alaska will have
a wet day on Friday, with the exception of the western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley, which due to
downsloping should only see isolated to scattered shower activity.

By Saturday and Sunday, the models become so divergent from each
other that little can be said about the forecast with any kind of
certainty, but the pattern looks to remain unsettled.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 130 131 155 165 170 172 174 175 176 177 178 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ALH/KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JW