Gale Warning 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

406 
FZAK52 PAFC 032358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041230-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of lows will cross the Aleutian chain near just West of
Nikolski on Thursday. By Friday morning these will redevelop as a
956 mb low 350 nm west of Saint Paul. This low will strengthen to
949 mb and move to 220 nm north of Attu by Friday evening. An 
associated front will move northeastward through the Bering Sea on
Friday.

$$

PKZ150-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 10 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind
35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041230-
Bristol Bay-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041230-
Unalaska Bay-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041230-
Adak to Kiska-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041230-
Kiska to Attu-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

Updated long term

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weakening low is tracking northward across interior Southwest
Alaska today. Tight pressure gradients and pressure rises are
leading to strong gusty Chinook winds across much of Southcentral
as well as the west side of the Alaska/Aleutian Ranges (Port
Heiden up to Iliamna and Port Alsworth areas). Temperatures have
climbed into the mid 30s to mid 40s across most of this area.
Winds are gradually diminishing as the low continues northward
while colder air aloft wrapping in behind the low is leading to a
transition back to snow in the Bristol bay area.

There are a host of smaller and weaker features moving through
the upper level long-wave trough, which is centered over the
Bering Sea/North Pacific. One of these will rotate up toward
Southcentral tonight through Wednesday and will be key to the
precipitation forecast. Otherwise, widespread instability
underneath the upper trough is leading to showers, especially
across the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

Lastly, a high amplitude ridge remains parked downstream over the
western U.S. A meridional jet on the west side of the ridge is
transporting moisture northward across the East Pacific to the
Eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. A wave embedded within the flow
will begin to bend moisture a bit farther westward toward eastern
Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin later today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to struggle with track and amplitude of upper
level waves. In particular, they differ in track of a short-wave
across the western Gulf tonight and Southcentral on Wednesday.
Despite the differences, they all now bring snow to Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley (along with the eastern portion of the
Susitna Valley), so feel confident in trending higher with
PoPs/QPF. Will keep an eye on latest model runs before finalizing
snow accumulation for the area.

There is a very large spread in solutions Wednesday night with
handling of a triple point low along the Aleutians. Will take
middle ground solution (NAM) for now, but confidence is low. The
good news is there is agreement with the frontal boundary itself
as well as with a deeper low moving into the area on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Based on a growing model consensus, it looks likely for a
period of snow with MVFR and/or IFR conditions. Tracking of
multiple weak features makes it difficult to nail down the snow
intensity and timing. With the 00Z TAF issuance, continue to
trend toward lower ceiling/vis tonight through Wednesday morning.
If the snowier solution works out, it could be a prolonged period
of low conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
As the low near the west coast weakens and tracks north, cold air
will be ushered back in over Southcentral Alaska through Thursday.
Tonight a weak upper level feature will accompany the initial
push of cold air which will bring a quick shot of snow over areas
from Anchorage through the Matanuska Valley. Precip will then
diminish late Wednesday as high pressure and colder temperatures
move in over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue night
thru Thu)... Forecast remains on track today with a mix of
precipitation falling over the Bristol Bay area, and snow for the
Kuskokwim Valley. As the trough lifts eastward, precipitation is
expected to taper off through Tuesday evening. Behind this trough,
cold air aloft is moving in from the west. This will change the
precip over to snow for the Bristol Bay region, and return
temperatures to a lot closer to normal for the next couple of
days. One question that remains for tonight and tomorrow is
whether fog will form along the coast. With southwesterly flow,
this seems like a possibility; however it appears the clouds will
not clear out above and some weak instability will remain in the
area, so although fog may form, right now it is forecast to be
patchy at best. By Thursday morning, the surface flow becomes more
southeasterly ahead of an approaching front, so chances for fog
will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tue
night through Thu)... The Bering Sea and the Aleutians will see a
quick break this evening and tonight before the next system
approaches tomorrow morning. Winds will increase to gale force for
the western Aleutians tomorrow as the front crosses into the Bering
Sea. Along this front, a triple-point low will develop and cross the
Aleutian Chain tomorrow night. This will cause winds ahead of the
front to intensify to storm force briefly as the low moves
northward. Unfortunately, the models have been very inconsistent on
where exactly this low will form, so the area of storms tomorrow
night may move to the west or the east slightly as we refine the
forecast. This low will bring a slug of warm air into the Bering,
changing over any precipitation to a mix or even rain.
On Thursday, yet another low will form south of the chain and move
northward, bringing more warm air and more wind. This low looks to
be stronger, so have put Storms into the forecast for marines on
Thursday. Surprisingly, models have been more consistent on this
next low, so confidence is fairly high that storm force winds will
move through the Eastern Aleutians and AK Pen before the end of the
week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The main item of interest in the long term will be a pair of strong
low pressure systems moving through the Aleutian chain and western
Bering Sea. The first of which will continue its northward journey
across this region, as a pair of lows rotate around themselves in a
Fujiwhara-like fashion. An attendant surface front will move through
the eastern Aleutians into portions of southwest Alaska on Friday.
Widespread precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop along
and ahead of the front, with precipitation becoming more showery
behind it and near the areas of low pressure. This front will weaken
during the day Saturday as it moves into South Central Alaska, with
eastward- facing slopes and adjacent valleys seeing the best chance
of precipitation initially, though downslope prone areas of
Southcentral may also see some snowfall from this system for Sunday
as the models have trended much weaker with this front as progresses
into the North Gulf Coast.

Another storm will approach western portions of the Aleutian chain
Sunday night, moving into the western Bering by Monday, sending
another surface front eastward. Similar to its predecessor, strong
wind gusts and widespread precipitation will accompany the front.
Further east over the South Mainland ridging moving over the area
should bring cooler weather and clearing skies and generally benign
weather for early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 155 170-175 177-179.
		 Storm 176.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LF
LONG TERM...PD/DEK