Gale Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

840 
FZAK52 PAFC 031245
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040145-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front approaches the western Aleutians and reaches the central 
Aleutians tonight. An associated 965 mb low 270 nm south of Shemya 
tonight moves 240 nm southeast of Shemya at 962 mb Thu evening. A 
second 964 mb low develops 260 nm southeast of Adak Thu morning and 
absorbs the first low, and then moves 200 nm north of Adak Thu night 
at 951 mb.

$$

PKZ150-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-040145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 9 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-040145-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-040145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-040145-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-040145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-040145-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-040145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-040145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt early becoming 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 
18 ft in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Snow 
in the morning, then rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-040145-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in
the afternoon. Freezing spray and areas of blowing snow in the 
morning. Snow in the morning, then rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-040145-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-040145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-040145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-040145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-040145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

406 
FZAK52 PAFC 032358
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-041230-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of lows will cross the Aleutian chain near just West of
Nikolski on Thursday. By Friday morning these will redevelop as a
956 mb low 350 nm west of Saint Paul. This low will strengthen to
949 mb and move to 220 nm north of Attu by Friday evening. An 
associated front will move northeastward through the Bering Sea on
Friday.

$$

PKZ150-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-041230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft except 10 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind
35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-041230-
Bristol Bay-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-041230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt except SE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-041230-
Unalaska Bay-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-041230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-041230-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ174-041230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ176-041230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ177-041230-
Adak to Kiska-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ178-041230-
Kiska to Attu-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ179-041230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-041230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-041230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-041230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
258 PM AKST Wed Jan 3 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong area of low pressure is moving into Southern Alaska this
morning from the Pacific. Many areas are reporting precipitation
in association with the low. Generally the closer to the coast
one is, the more likely one is getting rain, though as warmer air
moves inland, more and more inland locations, including Anchorage
and the Matanuska Valley, have potential of getting some rain. The
low, centered near Bristol Bay after crossing the Alaska Peninsula
earlier last night, has essentially exhausted its supply of warm
air, and temperatures aloft are already starting to cool. For
Dillingham and points west of the low, cold air has remained in
place keeping surface temperatures below freezing, and well below
freezing over the Kuskokwim Delta. Meanwhile southeast winds,
downsloping, and warm advection are seeing many areas of
Southcentral above freezing this morning. Anchorage, Palmer, and
much of the western Kenai Peninsula are already up into the 40s
this morning. These temperatures are comparable to predawn
conditions around Tampa, Florida!

The upper level disturbance that invigorated the low moving into
mainland southern Alaska has become vertically stacked with the
surface low, and the upper level feature is rapidly becoming
absorbed into the broad upper level low in place over the entire
Bering. Thus, that broad trough remains the dominant steering for
each of the lows impacting us in Southern Alaska, with the jet
just clipping the far eastern Copper River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As expected, the models are handling the big low currently
impacting Southcentral well. Behind the low, most of the models
are getting a better handle on a much weaker low tracking
northward across the Gulf Tuesday night, with a small area of high
pressure following that through the end of the short-term period
Wednesday night. However, the next strong low out over the Bering
involves considerably more uncertainty, as in typical fashion, the
parent low occludes over the western Bering, and triple-point low
development occurs along the occluded front further east across
the Aleutians. There is very little agreement at all on where the
secondary triple point low develops. Each model has its own
solution. As such there remains high uncertainty and low forecast
confidence by that point on Wednesday. However, the models do have
general broad agreement on the speed and position of the occluded
front itself. Thus, forecast confidence is average to above
average over Southcentral, with less confidence out west over the
Bering. The higher-resolution NAM was the model of choice at
least until some better agreement can be obtained with future
model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty southeast winds with the
Turnagain Arm Jet will persist through the morning, then gradually
diminish in intensity this afternoon and tonight. There's a chance
for some passing snow showers early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A weakening low is moving north across Southwest Alaska and its
associated weather front is lifting  rapidly north across
Southcentral. Many areas across Southcentral will be windy and
unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing in the mid 30s to the
low to mid 40s. Temperatures will cool off tonight and will trend
much lower on Wednesday as winds diminish and weak cold advection
spreads in from the west. Strong pressure rises behind the front
will continue brisk to strong winds (mostly southerly) across many
areas, especially favored gaps. Winds diminish significantly this
evening as pressure gradients relax. The brunt of the
precipitation will fall along the coasts as rain with mixed or
snow at higher elevations. Precipitation types inland will be more
challenging today with increasing freezing levels and some pockets
of cold air. That said expect a heavy lean toward rain at lower
elevations and snow to mix at higher elevations, Copper River
Basin, and northern Susitna Valley. Cooler air will bring a tilt
back toward snow tonight/Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and Wed)...
Southwest AK is divided into two air masses this morning. From
King Salmon along the Aleutian Range up through Iliamna,
temperatures remain quite mild, especially for early January.
However to the west, from Dillingham up through the YK-Delta,
temperatures range from just below freezing to the low teens. This
means that precipitation to the east is mostly falling as rain or
a rain/snow mix. Precipitation along the west coast and for
interior areas is generally falling as snow. There remains a
chance to pick up a few additional inches of snow this morning
with the best shot near or along the eastern flank of the
Kuskokwim Mountains. The good news is (for winter lovers at least)
cold air is starting to work back in from the west. This will
continue through the day as the low pressure system (currently
overhead) moves off to the north and east.

Wednesday will bring a return to much quieter conditions with
temperatures falling closer to normal. Snow showers will taper off
from west to east, lingering along the AK Range through much of
the day. As weak ridging builds in with some lingering moisture,
we can't rule out the chance for some fog to develop. Another warm
front will fall apart as it approaches the area from the Bering on
Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
The Bering is about to move into a very active "triple-point" low
pattern. But first, conditions today will remain similar to the
past few days. One warm surface low pressure center will slide
quickly to the north over the Eastern Bering today. This will
bring some wrap-around westerly low end small-craft winds. A
secondary weak circulation over the Central Bering will allow west
to northwest flow to continue to usher cold air over the Central
and Western Aleutians. This will keep some gusty gale-force winds
and moderate snow showers in the forecast.

By Wed, the first in the series of developing lows will slide into
the Central Aleutians. The leading warm front associated with this
system will pack a large swath of gale-force winds and moderate to
heavy precipitation. The cold air currently in place will allow
precipitation to start out as snow with the chance for some
freezing spray over the marine zones. However, this will be
short-lived as warm air behind the front pushes 850 mb
temperatures to near or above freezing by Wed evening. This front
will drift to the northeast as it falls apart over the Central
Bering into early Thu. A stronger low pressure system will take
its place.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast beginning Wednesday afternoon remains
progressive, as low pressure over the southern Mainland gives way
to an amplifying ridge building in from the west on Thursday. In
the meantime, a strong upper low will develop over much of the
Bering sea Thursday into Friday, then begin to push the above
mentioned ridge over the pan-handle and western Canada by the
start of the weekend. As the ridge builds into the southern
Mainland Wednesday into Thursday, cooler and drier conditions will
build back over the area under light offshore/northerly flow.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the finer details of the
complex north Pacific low and associated front tracking through
the Aleutians and into the Bering Wednesday into Thursday. This
is also true for the potent triple point low strengthening over
the north Pacific Thursday, then tracking through the Central and
Eastern Aleutians/Bering Friday. The associated front will reach
Southwest Alaska Friday morning and push eastward over much of the
southern Mainland by Saturday. Overall, this system will usher in
another round of wet and windy conditions for the much of the
area, as well as some warming temperatures ahead of the front as
the system progresses eastward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale: 119 120 121 125 129 130 131 132 138 139 141 150 174
175 176 177 178 351.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...TP/DEK