Gale Warning 289, NWS Anchorage, AK

046 
FZAK62 PAFC 161152
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170045-
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 mb low at 59N 177W will dissipate this afternoon in the
northern Bering. A 970 mb low at 52N 168E will stall near 56N 
170W at 974 mb Tue night through Wed.

$$

PKZ411-170045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Widespread snow
showers and rain.
.TONIGHT...S to E wind 20 to 35 kt in the evening becoming N to W. 
Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S to W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and
widespread snow showers.
.TUE...N to E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S to W wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 30 kt in the evening increasing to 25 to 40
kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S to E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

757 
FZAK62 PAFC 162326
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171245-
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 mb low at 54N 176E moves to 56N 169W at 977 mb for Wed
afternoon. Its front moves across the Alaska Peninsula and curves
South of the Aleutians through Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

959 
FZAK62 PAFC 171148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180130-
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 56N 178W will move to 57N 171W at 971 mb tonight
then it will move to 56N 168W at 984 mb Thu morning. 


$$

PKZ411-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

785 
FZAK62 PAFC 172332
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181400-
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 mb low at 55N 171W loops around the Central Bering then
slides to 55N 161W at 990 mb for Thu afternoon. The front pushes 
over the Alaska Peninsula and extends South of the Aleutians through 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-181400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 PM AKDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
528 AM AKDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern has gotten a bit more active over the Bering and
Southwest AK while things continue to be quiet over Southcentral.
Satellite clearly shows 2 distinct lows over the Bering. The first
is the parent low, which we saw developing yesterday and helped
anchor the trough now in place over the region. The second is a
potent, smaller low tracking rapidly from the Central Aleutians
towards the Pribilof Islands. This low was not resolved well by
any of the models yesterday. An ASCAT pass showed some storm-force
winds on its southern flank earlier this evening as it has been
able to tap into some colder air from the west (parent low). It is
positioned right along a 130 kt upper level jet, so it should
continue to strengthen a bit more as it tracks quickly north.

On the leading edge of the trough over the Bering is a decaying
warm occlusion. This is starting to bring precipitation to parts
of Southwest AK. Most of this is falling as rain, but there were
a few spots that reported snow or mixed precipitation initially.
Another front is right on its heels and will serve to reinforce
more warm air and rain.

A weak trough is clipping the Copper River Basin. While a small
area of low stratus and fog was able to develop along the North
Gulf of AK coast overnight, this trough should help dissipate it
by late this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement and forecast confidence is
moderate. The aforementioned low in the Central Bering was not
handled well yesterday by the models. Thus, we are keeping a close
eye on this feature as models play "catch up" to resolve it. The
hi-res NAM Nest and hand edits based off observations were used to
address it.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The shortwave moving through the Copper River Basin will bring
continued snow showers this morning, primarily along higher
elevations of the Chugach and Wrangell Mountains. After this
passes south of the area by this afternoon, the focus will then
shift to the front moving through the Western Gulf. Confidence is
good that this front will bring rain to the Kodiak Island region
this afternoon, along with increasing easterly winds beginning
late tonight as a triple point low develops south of the AKpen and
tracks into the Southern Gulf. This triple point has trended
stronger in the models in the last 24 hours, and is now expected
to bring a round of gale force easterlies to the Barren Islands
late tonight-early Monday. Otherwise impacts from this system will
remain confined to the Southern Kenai Peninsula as ridging over
the remainder of the South Mainland continues to bring dry
conditions with only a risk of increasing mid-high level clouds.
This ridging will then begin to weaken on Tuesday as a broad
trough moves into the Eastern Bering, which should allow for
precipitation to spread back into the North Gulf Coast for mid-
week, with downsloping conditions over Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Today through Tuesday)

The radars are beginning to light up this morning, as a frontal
system is currently moving ashore along southwest Alaska.
Widespread precipitation has developed along and ahead of this
front, with a few sites having shown a brief period or two of snow
before things changed over to rain due to strong warm advection
and warming temperatures. Winds have also been somewhat gusty near
the coast, and this looks to continue through the late
morning/early afternoon hours, before the pressure gradient
weakens as the front pushes further east with the parent low lift
off to the north while remaining well offshore of the region. As
this occurs, precipitation will become lighter and more showery in
nature. Some colder air wrapping around the low will filter back
into the region, which may allow for a few locations to transition
back to snow showers by tonight into Monday morning. A showery
pattern will continue through Tuesday as the front and surface low
weaken, as they bump into a ridge further east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A rapidly deepening low in the base of a trough is currently
ejecting north from the central Aleutians through the eastern
Bering. Recent observations and an ASCAT satellite pass have
shown sustained winds near 50 knots. As such, winds were increased
to near storm force for the eastern third of the Aleutians into
the AKpen and for the Pribilof Islands through the eastern Bering.
Otherwise, widespread precipitation has pushed east of the area,
with the remainder of the bering through the chain in a
predominately cold advection, showery regime. Winds will mainly be
in the small craft to low-end gale category. This looks to
continue through the next 24 hours before another storm system
pushes east into the western Aleutians/Bering by Monday.

This next low looks to deepen to sub 970 mb during the day as it
enters the area, while sending another front eastward, accompanied
by winds increasing to Gales, with a few gusts near storm force
possible across western portions of the chain and points further
south.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday through Saturday)...

Tuesday's weather picture starts out with a strong, sprawling
area of low pressure centered to the west of the Pribilofs over
the central Bering Sea. The remnants of the occluded front are
primarily over the waters of the eastern Bering, extending
southward from the central AKpen into the Pacific. With broad,
moist southeasterly flow over Southwest Alaska, there is steady
rain and snow from about Koliganek westward into the Kuskokwim
Montains. Downsloping off those mountains will be keeping the
Kuskokwim Delta dry. Meanwhile all of Southcentral except Kodiak
and possibly the southernmost areas of the Kenai Peninsula are dry
under strong ridging. As the front moves into Southwest Alaska on
Tuesday, precipitation will break out further and further north
in Southwest Alaska. It also moves into the southern Kenai.

On Wednesday, the front will swing across the remainder of the
Gulf Coast, but makes very little progress moving north with both
the parent low slowly moving southeastward and the high topography
of the coastal Chugach blocking it. Strong southeast to east winds
will leave most of the Cook Inlet region downsloped, as is very
typical in this pattern. With a lack of northward progress, the
precipitation, perhaps heavy at times, will remain confined to
both the Gulf Coast and the east facing slopes of most of the
mountains of southern Alaska. This pattern will favor the
development and maintenance of the Turnagain Arm wind.

Thursday will largely be a continuation of Wednesday as far as
Southcentral's weather is concerned. Another disturbance moves
northward through the Gulf from the Pacific, nearing the coast
late in the day. The models disagree primarily on the strength of
this disturbance from the GFS, which is fastest and weakest, to
the EC, which has a concentrated closed low moving through the
northern Gulf Thursday afternoon. Other than differences in the
strength and wind direction however, the end result weatherwise
regardless will be a reinvigoration of the precipitation rates at
the coast. For Southwest Alaska, Thursday should be a drier day,
though there are model disagreements on that as well.

By Friday and beyond, the model disagreements only further
increase, both at how the low behaves, and how a new strong low
along the Aleutians behaves. However, the pattern remains
unsettled, so a cloudy, seasonable period for much of southern
mainland Alaska appears on tap going into next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm 414.
	     Gale 130 155 165 170 173-81 185 411-13.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JW