Gale Warning 282, NWS Anchorage, AK

894 
FZAK62 PAFC 081140
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-090330-
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Aleutians reaches the eastern Bering 
tonight. The associated Kamchatka low moves to 55N 176E at 969 mb
tonight and then moves to 58N 179E at 983 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ411-090330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 15
to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-090330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-090330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-090330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 AM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

417 
FZAK62 PAFC 082337
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-091245-
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 57N 171E moves to 59N 178E at 990 mb Tue afternoon. 
Its front moves across the Bering through Tue afternoon. A 981 mb 
North Pacific low moves to 48N 169E Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-091245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S to E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt except E 20 kt N of 56N. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt except variable 15 kt N of 56N. Seas
16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-091245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-091245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-091245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKDT Sun Apr 8 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9
to 14 ft. Snow.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

030 
FZAK62 PAFC 091155
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-100145-
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 56N 175E moves to 57N 178E at 978 mb by Tue
morning and then to 59N 177E at 995 mb by late Tue night. A 980 
mb low near 48N 170E Tue afternoon moves to 48N 176E at 981 mb 
late Tue night.

$$

PKZ411-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt...except E wind 20 to 30 kt N of 56N. 
Seas 13 to 28 ft. Rain and widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt...except E wind 15 to 25 kt N of 57N. 
Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft building to 10 to
18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Widespread rain
and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-100145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKDT Mon Apr 9 2018

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 9 to
14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKDT Sat Apr 7 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
We start out the weekend with high pressure building across the
southern mainland from the eastern Bering. However, area waters
continue under the influence of low pressure with a westward
progressing front over the Gulf and the other a stationary front
which spans across much of the Bering. Increasing clouds over
Southcentral kept temperatures from plummeting overnight for
inland locations with temperatures still hovering in the 20s early
this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Sunday with increased uncertainty for Monday with differences on
the track and strength of a low moving to the Gulf. GFS is fastest
with the northward pace on this front while the ECMWF had the
strongest low center. Models are in best agreement with the track
of the low over Bering Sunday into Monday. Forecast updates were
minimal as there is good model continuity through 48 hours and
conservative nudges were made for day 3 due to uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail
through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A short period of fairly benign weather is on tap for
Southcentral. Lingering middle to high clouds will start off the
day for interior locations, while some rain showers linger along
the Gulf coast. We will see decreasing clouds throughout the day,
and temperatures in the 40s, possibly approaching 50 in spots. A
weak outflow pattern sets up overnight into Sunday, but with a
lack of cold air in the interior, winds shouldn't ramp up too
much, 10 to 20 mph at most with some gusts in favored gap
locations. Sunday will see another warm day, especially in the
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. While temperatures will
still be in the 40s elsewhere, some mid-level clouds will creep
in from the south. Mainly dry conditions are expected, but some
showers are possible along the Gulf coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A drier pattern sets up today and continues through Monday across
the southwest as a ridge builds across the west coast. Skies are
expected to clear out this afternoon as the ridge center shifts
over the interior. Gusty northerly flow develops across much of
the southwest late morning as the pressure gradient tightens
between the ridge across the west and a westward moving front over
the Gulf. Gusts speeds to 25 mph taper off tonight with a stable
air mass setting up. Low pressure moving to the southern Gulf late
Sunday night brings increasing clouds along with easterly flow to
start off the beginning of the next work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The front that spans across much of the Bering dissipates by late
this evening with the upper level low diving south across the
North Pacific waters. The next front quickly follows with the
leading edge of the next system approaching the western Aleutian
Chain around midnight. This gale force front moves on a fast
northeast track with the boundary stretching across the northern
Bering to eastern Aleutians late Sunday. Westerly flow behind the
frontal passage will be gale force across much of the Bering
Sunday and Sunday night as the surface low driving the front
deepens upon lifting northeast of Shemya.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Previous Discussion)
The long term forecast begins Monday evening with a large
recently vertically stacked low tracking into the western
Aleutians and a weak rex block pattern over mainland Alaska with
an upper level ridge centered over southern Alaska and an upper
low to the south centered around 48N. The upper level ridge will
gradually fade out Sunday night and Monday as the western upper
low tracks northeast to cover the western and central Bering, the
upper low to the south of the Gulf lifts slowly north and a cold
upper trough persists over the northern Yukon Territory, eastern
Brooks Range, and Yukon Flats.

A strong westerly jet will bring in the next developing north
Pacific low skirting just to the south of the western and central
Aleutians Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper low south
of the Gulf will track north to around 55N 145W by Tuesday
afternoon and then turn west to track into the southwestern Gulf
on Wednesday as a secondary low/upper trough rotating around it
swings into the southeast Gulf. Inland, a ridge aloft stretching
from British Columbia up to the northern Gulf coast will shift
north to extend from the Yukon Territory into interior Alaska on
Tuesday.

On Wednesday night, the Aleutian low's track will turn to the
southeast to then become caught up in the circulation of the broad
multi-center Gulf low on Thursday. The general pattern of a large
upper low centered in the Gulf and another over the western
Aleutians and western Bering will continue through at least Friday
with models trending towards strengthening the upper level ridge
in between and building it up over mainland Alaska sometime
around Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 175 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JR