Gale Warning 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

035 
FZAK52 PAFC 222341
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231245-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front in the central Bering reaches the eastern Bering this
afternoon and then moves inland. The associated 962 mb low moves
into eastern Russia this evening. A 993 mb low 170 nm south of
Shemya Fri afternoon moves 200 nm north of Adak at 985 mb Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-231245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind
15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231245-
Bristol Bay-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-231245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller
E. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231245-
Unalaska Bay-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231245-
Adak to Kiska-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231245-
Kiska to Attu-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-231245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-231245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, SW wind 50 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 
28 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a full latitude upper level ridge along about 165 degrees
west longitude. This ridge is becoming "sharper" and nudging
eastward. There is an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska. Strong northerly flow through the atmospheric column is
situated in between these two features over much of southern
Alaska. Conditions over southern Alaska are rather dry, especially
over Southcentral. There is a large and deep upper low centered
near the Kamchatka Peninsula. An associated north to south
oriented front is over the central to western Bering and central
to western Aleutians. A surface low is rapidly forming along this
front over the western Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement, and show good
continuity, through the short term portion of the forecast (Friday
afternoon). Therefore little change has been made to the forecast
and confidence is higher than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Breezy north winds will
diminish around midnight tonight as the surface gradient relaxes
and the atmosphere decouples.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The pattern overall will be relatively slow to change. However,
small differences in how the upper-levels reorient this evening
into Thu will result in noticeable changes at the surface. Gusty
winds will continue to be the main issue. Winds have already
started to blow through many of the usual spots (Thompson Pass,
Seward, the Mat Valley, Valdez, etc.). In fact, Thompson Pass
already hit a gust to 90 mph. The ridge and upper-level energy
that is helping to support these winds will shift ever so slightly
tonight. This will produce a bit of a more northeast (as opposed
to north) offshore gradient. This should allow the winds to
increase through the favored terrain of the Mat Valley and the
town of Valdez. With this in mind, we have extended the high wind
warning until NOON Thu. Even by then, it looks like winds will be
slow to subside through the afternoon (instead of swift drop-off)
as the thermal gradient slowly weakens and energy shifts east.

Blowing snow will continue to limit visibilities through Thompson
Pass. Conditions should slowly improve as most of the loose snow
gets scoured away. For the Matanuska Valley, it looks like there
is too much "hardened" snow for much blowing snow. In general,
this snow pack should limit any blowing dust. However, we can't
entirely rule out some localized dust in places where the snow is
now gone.

The ridge and offshore flow should continue to make for clear
skies across just about all of Southcentral. With abundant March
sunshine, even with cold overnight temperatures, things should
warm up quite dramatically during the afternoons. The next chance
for precipitation is a decaying front approaching the AK Range
from the west Fri. However, this feature effectively falls apart
before it even makes it over the mountains. Thus, we have opted to
back off/slow down the already meager PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure aloft and at the surface is keeping the pattern dry,
but the flow is weak enough along the Kuskokwim Delta and parts of
the Alaska Peninsula to support low stratus and fog. Offshore flow
ahead of an approaching front will help some of that break up
overnight.

The next front rolls into Southwest Thursday evening then moves
east toward the Alaska Range before stalling and falling apart on
Friday. This front will bring light snow (perhaps 1-2" along the
coast with amounts dwindling as it moves inland) but the fast
movement will limit accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The main story for the Bering remains to be a powerful developing
bent-back occlusion which will rapidly deepen over the western
Bering Sea tonight and Thursday. Storm force winds around the
backside of the low will approach 60 knots with gusts as high as
75 MPH over the northern Bering Sea offshore marine zones with the
associated gale force front moving into the eastern Bering by
Thursday afternoon.

Strong southwesterly cold air advection will wrap around the
Bering Sea behind the low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended portion of the forecast beginning Friday night will
see outflow winds diminishing across Southcentral as the Bering
ridge shifts eastward to the mainland and breaks down by Saturday.
This will bring about a return to a more progressive pattern
going into next week as several systems track across the region
from west to east. The next good chance for precipitation across
Southcentral looks to occur on Sunday as a low moves into the
eastern Bering and a front extends across the Alaska Peninsula
into to the Gulf. Forecast confidence decreases after Monday as
guidance begins to diverge more substantially. There is a general
consensus on a more active and somewhat wetter pattern for the
southern mainland going through next week, however the individual
details remain unresolved at this time as models continue to
struggle after Day 5.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High wind warning 131.
MARINE...Storm 185 412. Gales 126-128 170 172-181 411 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1042 PM AKDT WED MAR 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST THOMPSON PASS           61.14N 145.75W
03/21/2018  M89 MPH                             AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORTED 70 MPH WINDS WITH 89 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

AHILL