Gale Warning 260, NWS Anchorage, AK

359 
FZAK52 PAFC 202347
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211245-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front in the western Bering moves to the central Bering Wed
morning and reaches the eastern Bering Wed night. The associated
970 mb low moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 5 ft. 
Patchy fog.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211245-
Bristol Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211245-
Unalaska Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211245-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211245-
Adak to Kiska-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211245-
Kiska to Attu-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas building to 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-211245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
347 PM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft 
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 55 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

543 
FZAK52 PAFC 211201
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220045-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front in the western Bering moves into Southwest Alaska by Thu
evening. A 994 mb low develops along the front 225 nm north of Shemya 
Wed afternoon...moves to 200 nm west of Saint Matthew Island Thu 
morning...then moves into the Gulf of Anadyr Thu evening.

$$

PKZ150-220045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt except SW 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220045-
Bristol Bay-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt except E 15 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220045-
Unalaska Bay-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain
showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220045-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220045-
Adak to Kiska-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220045-
Kiska to Attu-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-220045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
401 AM AKDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 55 kt. Seas 27 
ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level short-wave trough is tracking eastward across
Southcentral this morning, with rain and snow ahead of it. Low
level cold air advection is changing precipitation to mostly snow
on the back edge, with precipitation then ending from west to
east. The cold advection is also leading to strong gusty winds,
especially across the western Gulf and western Prince William
Sound areas. A much weaker short-wave is crossing the northern
Bering Sea and headed for The Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
valley, with snow showers and gusty winds headed that way.
Conditions are quite benign across the heart of the Bering Sea and
the Aleutian chain as an upper level ridge amplifies overhead,
out ahead of a storm system near the Kamchatka Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in excellent agreement with large scale features and
overall forecast confidence is high. The main forecast challenge
will be details of winds across Southcentral and the Gulf the next
few days as various features move through, resulting in multiple
peaks and valleys in wind speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions will remain safely VFR through the TAF period.
The forecast challenge for the next 24 hours will be timing of
stronger winds, with some gusty northwest flow expected this
afternoon then again beginning Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main weather concern through mid week is strong offshore flow
which is already developing as a trough sets up along the eastern
Gulf of Alaska.

The surface low that brought snow and rain to the region today
exits to the east gulf later tonight with numerous snow showers
continuing across the Copper River Valley through Tuesday
morning. A slightly cooler air mass advects from the northwest
as the trough settles in the eastern gulf. A few showers remain
possible through Tuesday as a strong upper level disturbance
quickly moves from the west coast to gulf. A pattern shift
Tuesday night brings stronger wind gusts for channeled terrain
along the coast as the pressure gradient is squeezed between the
gulf low and a building ridge surface ridge over the central
interior. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday, however
the upper level pattern supports prolonged gusts for the northeast
gulf through early Thursday. The Matanuska Valley can also
expect gusty flow to develop on Wednesday as the surface ridge
shifts toward the Alcan border.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A trough currently moving through the southwest mainland will be
along the Alaska Range tonight then continue east. Following this
tough another upper level disturbance will move through overnight
increasing the chances of snow showers over the Kuskokwim Delta
into the middle Kuskokwim Valley. Moisture trailing this trough
will continue to advect across the southwest Mainland through
Tuesday afternoon in the west northwest flow. This will help to
keep a threat of snow showers across the region, especially along
the Alaska Range and Aleutian Mountains. Additionally, gusty
northwest wind through channeled terrain can be expected along the
Aleutian Mountains. An upper level ridge will build in behind
these troughs into the eastern Bering Sea Tuesday helping to dry
conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A large flat ridge of high pressure is in place across the
Aleutians and central Bering Sea and will gradually slide east
overnight as another strong low moves into the western Bering Sea
and Kamchatka Peninsula Tuesday. A strong front will push into
the western Aleutians Tuesday bringing gale to minimum storm force
wind with it. This front will slowly push east as the ridge breaks
down through Wednesday, crossing the eastern Aleutians wednesday
afternoon. This is a distinct cold front that will likely have
very gusty winds along the front and immediately behind it as well
as showery precipitation. Rain in advance of the front will
rapidly change over the snow and snow showers as the front passes
through.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
On Thursday night a large upper low will be situated over the
Bering Sea, Aleutians, and the west coast of Alaska. There will be
a full latitude blocking high along 155 degrees west longitude,
with another upper low centered to the west of Vancouver Island.
This pattern will begin to break down by the weekend, but exactly
how this occurs is not well agreed upon by the models. The 00Z
ECMWF supports a compact upper low which will peel off from mean
trough near the Yukon Territory that would undercut the ridge and
form a Rex block. Meanwhile, the past few runs of the GFS suggest
maintaining more of an Omega block signature as downstream energy
does not show any retrogression back toward mainland Alaska.
Underneath this blocking regime, a chain of shortwaves appear
primed to sweep across the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska
during much of the forecast. This will be a fairly active pattern
for the Aleutians and southern Alaska. Due to the model
differences, timing of any individual systems is problematic.
Therefore the WPC forecast relies heavily on the ensemble means,
with the strongest weighting towards the 00z ECMWF mean.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 119-121 127 128 130-132 178 351 352 411

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...BL