Gale Warning 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

913 
FZAK52 PAFC 112329
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-121200-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 mb low 150 nm southwest of Mekoryuk will move inland over 
Bethel Mon morning. A 998 mb North Pacific low will move to 190 
nm south of Shemya tonight, then to 160 nm east of St. Paul at 
994 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-121200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft 
after midnight. Widespread snow showers.
.MON...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. W of
Chirikof Island...becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-121200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the evening. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow turning to rain.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-121200-
Bristol Bay-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building 
to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-121200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the evening. 
Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes in the evening. 
Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-121200-
Unalaska Bay-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-121200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-121200-
Nikloski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft subsiding to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-121200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-121200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W wind 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-121200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 20 after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-121200-
Adak to Kiska-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Bering Side, N wind 10 kt becoming E 20 after midnight.
Pacific side, SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...Bering side, E wind 20 kt. Pacific side, S wind 20 kt. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-121200-
Kiska to Attu-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.  and rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-121200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-121200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas in ice
free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray W of Kuskokwim Bay. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-121200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-121200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
329 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt except W wind 35 kt S of Saint Matthew 
Island. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt. S of Saint Matthew
Island, W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKST Sat Mar 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough stretches from the South Mainland into
the Gulf, which continues to bring snow showers from the Southern
Kenai Peninsula into the North Gulf Coast. Under this trough are
two weak surface troughs in the Gulf, the first which is
beginning to make landfall over Western Prince William Sound. The
other is beginning to enter the Eastern Gulf which will also
track towards the Sound for tomorrow. This active weather pattern
continues further west over the Bering Sea as a gale force low is
beginning to enter the Northern Bering on its way to the Southwest
Coast for late Sunday. Ahead of this low, the gusty northwesterly
flow over the Eastern Bering/AKpen are beginning to slowly diminish,
though a broad area of cold air advection snow showers continues
throughout the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in generally good synoptic agreement for the first
24 hours, with the primary differences being with the placement of
snow showers over the North Gulf Coast today. Starting Sunday
afternoon there begins to be significant differences in the exact
track of the next weak Gulf low into Prince William Sound. All of
the models track this low somewhere in/near the Sound by Sunday
evening, but whether this low tracks into the western sound or
near Seward (as the 12z NAM/GFS indicate) or further east towards
Valdez (GEM global/regional) create significant differences in how
far west into Southcentral the associated snowfall will develop.
At this point it appears that the best chance for accumulating
snowfall should be from the Matanuska Valley east, however recent
models trends are beginning to bring precip as far west as the
Anchorage Bowl/Northern Kenai Peninsula, so will need to continue
to monitor model trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into Sunday
afternoon. There is an outside chance that a few snow showers will
bring ceilings down to around 5000 ft this evening as the
remnants of a trough over the Gulf move through, however this
will likely be intermittent with only light accumulations
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Sunday and
Monday)...
Snow showers will continue through much of coastal Southcentral
and the upslope areas of the mountains over the next couple days
as a series of weak disturbances take advantage of an unstable
air mass in place across the region. The disturbances will add
moisture to the atmosphere leading to more organized snow shower
activity. For the Cook Inlet region, the first of these will come
through late this evening. Since it will be brief and transitory,
the resulting snow should be less than a half inch for most of the
area.

The next stronger disturbance tracks northwestward out of the Gulf
through Sunday, affecting the Cordova and Valdez area Sunday
morning, Portage and Whittier Sunday afternoon, then potentially
impacting the Matanuska Valley and portions of Anchorage Sunday
evening. There remains significant model discrepancies as to how
far west the moisture gets to, so it remains very possible that
Anchorage gets very little snow Sunday evening.

Then on Monday, as the flow turns more southeasterly through
Southcentral, upslope flow along the coast and Alaska Range will
pick up, while Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley stays relatively
dry. Precipitation chances diminish area-wide going into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Expect widespread cloudiness, periods of snow, and near normal
temperatures for the period. Lots of low stratus and flurries
linger around the mainland as low-level moisture remains after
the previous system. As winds wane tonight, stratus should thicken
up, possible reaching the ground as fog. The next low and front
will begin to impact the coast Sunday morning with some light snow
and increasing southeasterly winds. Some areas of blowing snow
will exist along the coast, but they should be fairly short lived,
with the lowest visibilities from Kuskokwim Bay through Togiak.
The system moves inland overnight Sunday into Monday. The next
system will be quick on it's heels on Tuesday, however, looks
rather disorganized, only bringing some light snow to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm front progressing west to east across the Bering will bring
snow to the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska before turning to rain
early Sunday morning. A weak system will traverse the trailing
cold front through the central Bering Sea on late Monday/Tuesday,
with light precipitation and winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast begins Tuesday with a relatively quiet
weather pattern over the southern mainland and most of the
Aleutians/Bering as the area lies in a transition zone between
systems. A nearly stationary surface low will be present over the
Northern Pacific/Southern Gulf of Alaska which could bring some
snow to the Gulf Coast on Tuesday before being kicked east by a
building longwave ridge, bringing pleasant mid-week weather to
southcentral.

A persistent long wave trough over the Bering will begin to re-
amplify Wednesday as waves rotating around the base of the trough
will kick off several low pressure systems through the week. The
upper level jet over the Bering will become more west/southwesterly
by mid week which will help to tap into subtropical moisture to
the south and advect it north towards mainland Alaska. At this
point, the long range models fall out of agreement regarding the
placement and even timing of the various lows tracking out of the
Bering, with models becoming 180 degrees out of phase with each
other by the end of the week (trough vs ridge), so there is little
confidence in the timing of specific systems late next week.
Regardless, there is consensus in an overall anomalous and active
pattern for mid March as the persistent upper level trough over
the Bering Sea drives the main storm track into mainland Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 172 174 175 176 177 178 180 181 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KVP