Gale Warning 215, NWS Anchorage, AK

137 
FZAK62 PAFC 111141
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-120230-
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front in the central Bering moves to the eastern Bering this
afternoon. The associated 983 mb Kamchatka low moves to 60N 173W 
at 980 mb this afternoon and then moves to 59N 163W at 985 mb 
tonight before moving inland. A second 997 mb low forms at 50N 
177E Mon morning and moves to 53N 174W at 998 mb Mon night.

$$

PKZ411-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-120230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 AM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 to 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

381 
FZAK62 PAFC 112319
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-121330-
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 mb low near 59N 171W will move inland over Bethel Mon
morning. A 998 mb North Pacific low will move to 50N 174E 
tonight, then to 58N 166W at 994 mb Tue afternoon. 


$$

PKZ411-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt except NE wind 15 kt S of 56N. 
Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt 
after midnight. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-121330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 PM AKDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

835 
FZAK62 PAFC 121148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-130145-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb low at 59N 163W moves inland this afternoon. A 996 mb 
low at 51N 176E moves to 55N 169W at 999 mb tonight and then moves
over Bristol Bay at 1005 mb Tue night. A 1000 mb low develops near
58N 175E Tue afternoon and moves to 61N 178E at 1000 mb Tue 
night.

$$

PKZ411-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.TODAY...NW to NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW to E wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 9 to
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-130145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt becoming NW 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 AM AKST Sat Mar 10 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad longwave trough extends through mainland Alaska and the
western Gulf. This setup is bringing southerly flow and showers to
the north Gulf coast. Out west, ridging has built in over the
western Bering bringing warm air from the south with it.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models continue to struggle in this active pattern. This is
particularly true for the east side with multiple lows moving
through the Gulf. So while there is high confidence with an active
pattern bringing multiple lows through the area, there is
uncertainty with how the lows will move through and the impacts
they may have.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Snow showers...some heavy...will persist over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula today, but be gradually tapering off during the
evening. The Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. Due to
backcountry avalanche danger through the weekend, a Special
Weather Statement to relay information from The Chugach National
Forest Avalanche Center has been issued.

The rest of the north Gulf coast will continue to see snow showers
today and the showers will also taper off by tonight. Most of
the remainder of Southcentral will just see a few snow showers
spill over the mountains but POPs are generally low inland.

The next weather system to watch is expected to move into eastern
Prince William Sound Sunday and spread westward Sunday night.
Model tracks are still a bit uncertain but the Prince William
Sounds region will likely see some more snow with the heaviest
amounts being in the eastern Sound this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Winds continue to weaken this morning as the pressure gradient
weakens, due to the main storm system having reformed further
south in the Gulf due to jet stream energy diving into the trough
while deepening it further, causing a further south low position.
With this in mind, the blowing snow advisory for the Kuskokwim
Delta has expired. Brief ridging will cross the area tonight into
tomorrow morning. As the ridge axis passes overhead, weak warm
advection will help steepen a low-level inversion, aided by the
recent snowfall. This should promote a fairly expansive stratus
deck with some fog developing.

Our attention then turns to a fast approaching front for the day
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase ahead of the front,
mainly near the coast and at higher elevations. This could promote
some areas of blowing snow. However, with the recent snow having
compacted some and typically southeast winds bring a wetter
snowflake production, how much blowing snow will develop remains
questionable enough not to include in the forecast at this time.
As the front crosses the region snowfall coverage will be fairly
widespread with bursts of moderate intensity snowfall possible.
However, accumulations don't look to be to significant with just a
few inches expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The snow shower activity that has plagued the eastern two thirds
of the Bering and Aleutians the past few days will continue to
diminish through the morning, as a fast-moving narrow ridge of
high pressure builds across the region, moving from its current
position across the western central portions of the Bering/chain
to the coast of southwest Alaska by tomorrow morning. Quickly
following on its heals will be a cold front currently entering the
western portions of the region. As it moves from west to east, a
deepening low off the Siberian coast will increase warm advection
ahead of the incoming front, with a warm front surging through the
Aleutians into the north central portions of the Bering. This
will allow precipitation to change from snow to rain following
the warm frontal passage, mainly south and west of a line from
Siberia, through the Pribilof Islands, towards Nelson Lagoon.

As for the winds ahead of the fronts, some spotty sustained gales
may develop along the warm front across the eastern Bering, with
the better chance being immediately ahead of the cold front and
near the Aleutians from Nikolski westward. Otherwise, winds will
remain below gale criteria. After cold frontal passage, colder
air filtering back into the region will allow precipitation to
become more showery in nature, with snow showers being the
predominant precipitation type.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast begins Monday with a deep but narrow upper
level long wave trough bisecting mainland Alaska and extending
south to nearly 30N. A surface low will move from the Northern
Gulf into the Prince William Sound bringing another round of snow
to coastal areas and the mountains, though the inland areas west
of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains look to remain mostly snow free
as the bulk of the moisture and energy should remain far enough
east.

A progressive pattern will continue across the region as we
head into the middle of next week as a strong westerly jet moves
over the Aleutians and pinches off the upper level low well to the
south of our area. Temporary ridging will build in over the
southern mainland Tuesday and Wednesday morning bringing a short
break in the stormy pattern before another trough digs in across
the Eastern Bering spinning up another low that looks to move
across Western Alaska and eventually Southcentral by Thursday.
The models begin to diverge some at this point with the track of
the low center but all agree that a decent amount of moisture will
be associated with this system aided by a strong southerly upper
level jet pumping moisture in from the North Pacific. This storm
also looks to be a bit warmer than the previous ones we've seen
the past couple of weeks meaning precipitation types could be
challenging with rain possibly mixing in with snow at sea level
locations. Stay tuned as details become clearer regarding this
system next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...174 175 176 177 178 351 352.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray...160 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...KVP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
237 PM AKST Sat Mar 10 2018

AKZ125-120200-
Western Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood,
and Moose Pass
237 PM AKST Sat Mar 10 2018

...Special Avalanche Bulletin...
  
Bulletin - Immediate Broadcast Requested

The following message is transmitted at the request of the
Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center -

The Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center in Girdwood AK has
issued a Special Avalanche Bulletin.  

* Timing...In effect now through 6 pm Sunday March 11th, 2018.  

* Affected Areas...For Turnagain Pass and areas in and around
  Eastern Turnagain Arm, including the Kenai and Western Chugach
  Mountains.  

* Avalanche Danger...Dangerous avalanche conditions will exist
  through the weekend due to 2-4 feet of snow that has fallen on
  an unstable base. Human triggered large avalanches are likely on
  slopes steeper than 30 degrees.  

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Choose terrain that is flat or less than 30 degrees in steepness,
with nothing steeper above you. If skies clear for travel into
the alpine elevations, careful snowpack evaluation, cautious
route-finding and conservative decision making skills will be
necessary to identify and avoid unstable slopes.

Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the
coverage area of any avalanche center. Check www.avalanche.org 
for your closest avalanche center and to learn more about how to
learn about how to identify avalanche hazards.

This Special Bulletin does not apply to ski areas or highways
where avalanche reduction measures are performed.