Gale Warning 217, NWS Anchorage, AK

744 
FZAK62 PAFC 142330
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151245-
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 mb low at 46N 173W moves to 59N 160W at 1002 mb Fri
afternoon. Its front moves into Southwest Alaska Thu afternoon
with the trailing front over the Alaska Peninsula through Fri
afternoon. A front slips across the Western Aleutians with a 
990 mb North Pacific low Fri morning moving to 54N 170 at 997 mb 
Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.TONIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

469 
FZAK62 PAFC 151157
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160200-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low at 50N 170W moves to 58N 162W at 993 mb tonight and
then moves inland Fri night. A front over the western Aleutians
moves over the central Bering Fri night. The associated 993 mb low 
at 49N 167E tonight moves to 58N 171E at 966 mb Fri night.

$$

PKZ411-160200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 8 to
12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. 
Freezing spray north of the Pribilof Islands. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray from
the Pribilof Islands north.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

966 
FZAK62 PAFC 152311
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161300-
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 986 mb low at 54N 166W moves to 55N 167W at 999 mb Fri afternoon 
then dissipates by Fri night. A 994 mb low at 57N 164W tonight moves
inland near 59N 163W by Fri afternoon. A 970 mb low at 55N 171E 
Fri afternoon moves to 57N 167E at 964 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft building to 12 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas
4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

077 
FZAK62 PAFC 161148
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170215-
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 57N 163W moves inland tonight. A front over the
western Aleutians moves to the central Bering tonight and lifts to
the northern Bering Sat night. The associated 961 mb low at 58N
168E tonight moves to 58N 171E Sat night at 973 mb.

$$

PKZ411-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 13 ft building to 13 to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow with rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE to SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 8
to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 to
8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

225 
FZAK62 PAFC 162313
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171245-
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1002 mb low at 53N 166W moves into the North Pacific with its 
front pushing into the Gulf of Alaska by Sat morning. A 974 mb 
low near 56N 172E moves to 58N 165E at 962 mb on Sat morning. 
Its front moves into Northwest Alaska arcing across western 
Alaska to the Eastern Aleutians by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow showers 
and rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. 
Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 PM AKDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weakening weather front which moved west across the Cook Inlet
to MAT-SU corridor this morning has hung up along the Alaska
Range and is dissipating. A broad area of overrunning associated
with a baroclinic zone is producing snow across the Copper River
Basin. This boundary is also producing rain and snow along the
North Gulf Coast. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern
Bering Sea/Southwest Mainland is producing widespread cloud cover
along with light snow, which is mixed with rain over the Alaska
Peninsula. A weak ridge over the central Bering Sea/Aleutians and
weak troughing over the western Bering Sea brought relatively
benign conditions to that region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in general agreement in the broad upper level
pattern but struggle with the positioning of surface features.
This is especially noticeable with the next low heading toward
the Alaska Peninsula Wednesday night/Thursday morning. While
models differ on positioning of surface low center, the actual
trough axis position and sensible weather is pretty similar
between the GFS/ECMWF. Will be leaning that way for this package
out west and a NAM/GFS solution in the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through much
of the night. There is potential for MVFR conditions with snow
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A weak disturbance moving northward through the Gulf will serve
to reinforce precipitation over eastern portions of Prince William
Sound beginning this evening, with snow then spreading into the
Copper River Basin overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures
should be warm enough to support mostly rain at Cordova, with a
rain/snow mix more likely for Valdez and all snow at higher
elevations. As has been the case with other recent systems,
guidance has been trending westward with the spread of
precipitation into Anchorage and the Mat Valley. Therefore cannot
rule out another quick dusting of snow overnight for these areas. An
upper level trough will then lift through the region from the
southwest on Wednesday. This feature looks to be mostly dry for
now, thus limiting potential for any accumulating snow for most
areas. Still, there should be enough forcing to produce at least
a few snow flakes from Anchorage into the Mat-Su as the trough
moves through. Passage of the trough will then usher in a brief
dry period for most of Southcentral on Wednesday night before a
much more impressive system begins to approach from the southwest
on Thursday. This will bring another shot of mixed precipitation
to the Gulf coast and will also likely favor the western Susitna
Valley for several inches of snow. Meanwhile, the development of
cross barrier flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere looks
like it may keep the more downslope prone areas drier for a bit
longer at the onset of precipitation on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Another weak system moves into Southwest this evening, as a
reinforcing shortwave trough that will help spread some light
snowfall over the Bristol Bay and Lower Kuskokwim Valley areas
tonight. However, this system looks weak and quite moisture
starved, so snowfall amounts look to be around an inch or less.
Wednesday night into Thursday, a more substantial low and
associated warm front will bring in widespread rain and snow to
Bristol Bay before spreading northward Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm front and associated weak surface low is currently
tracking inland this evening along the Bristol Bay coast,
producing some colder northerly flow and light showers over the
eastern Aleutians/Bering and AKPen tonight. A stronger warm front
and associated low will move into the Central and Eastern
Aleutians/Bering Sea Wednesday through Thursday, bringing gale
force winds and widespread rain as it tracks into Southwest
Alaska. A gale force occluded front will move into the western
Aleutians/Bering Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing another
round of precipitation and gusty winds to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range forecast begins Friday with a broad upper level
trough situated over the Bering and a surface low over Bristol Bay
moving East/Northeast into Southwest Alaska. A large swath of
precipitation will spread across the southern half of the state
into Friday bringing warmer temperatures and snow to inland
locations with rain expected along the coast. For Southcentral,
southeast winds look to develop Friday leading to downsloping off
the Kenai and Chugach Mountains limiting the amount of
precipitation for typically downsloped areas. A shortwave ridge
builds in between systems over Southwest then Southcentral Friday
night into Saturday bringing a short break of decent weather. A
front, with parent low well west over NE Russia, will sweep
across the Bering and move into SW Alaska Saturday night before
elongating and falling apart as it goes over the Alaska Range.

Looking out into next week, long range models are showing less
uncertainty than the last couple days and are hinting at the
continuation of the upper level trough over the Bering through the
first half of the week, and hence a persistent unsettled pattern.
There are signs of a pattern change as we head into the latter
half of next week, with both the GFS and EC showing an upper level
ridge building in over the Bering/Western Alaska. This would lead
to the development of dry off shore flow over most of the state,
though depending on how far east the ridge axis sets up, could
bring down a good shot of cold air from the Arctic. Stay tuned for
details.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 170 173 174 178

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KVP